mtutiger

Beat me to it lol. Carbon County numbers are interesting too.... Rural America is a bit of a black box right now, but it suggests a pretty even or slight erosion could happen there too (large MOE tho)

...

Data is a little bit old, but if she's winning Northampton by these numbers, she's winning PA by something similar one would think... Its the bellwether county

It's also the reason that the people who say "well, he wasn't that bad in the first term" are delusional.... he's not going to be surrounded by adults this next time, and to romad's point, the impact will absolutely translate downward to into the actual workforce.

There's a lot of dismissal of this and the Waukesha mayor endorsements on social media this AM, but if she ends up doing better with GOP voters than expected (we will see), the signs will have been there in plain sight.

I remain pretty skeptical of early vote analysis, but I do think what we are seeing out of Detroit is a really good sign considering the tendency for the city to struggle with turnout relative to the statewide average

A few things notable here: He (privately) voted third party in 2016 and (privately) voted for Biden in 2020. Waukesha is the county seat of Waukesha County, emblematic of the Milwaukee suburbs and the largest basket of votes for the GOP in Wisconsin (and a county that he'll likely do worse in this election) Biden lost the City of Waukesha by ~6 points in 2020. He felt the need (and likely that he had the rope with his constituents) to make an endorsement *public* for Kamala Harris We talk about quantitative stuff a lot, but this is qualitative evidence of movement IMO

WOW (literally and figuratively)

I'm not watching, but sounds like another certified pundit moment

There's a balance that has to be struck; if you believe public polling, Trump is running more popular today than he did in 2020 or 2016. You can't avoid talking about him or the comments from John Kelly, have to go after him given that reality to try to drive home that reality to these sorts of voters... but she did enough to pivot to her issues, particularly in the second half of the town hall IMO I thought Dana Bash was unfair at the end in saying that she didn't address her agenda, I thought she did touch on parts of it. Could have done more, but I think she did fine in the grand scheme of things.

Also, LOL at all the conservatives pearl clutching over her agreeing with the characterization of DJT as a "fascist".... that guy has regularly thrown terms like "fascist" and "communist" and "marxist" at people for years and people just treat it like another day ending in "y"

Watched most of it, I thought she did fine all things considered.... the audience asked fair questions, although I do think Anderson Cooper definitely struck a more confrontational tone. Which is fine, she needs to show she can be challenged on this stage. In baseball terms, more of a double than a home run though. But fine.

Weird as hell

CNN Article Referenced: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/10/22/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-final-weeks It's anecdotal, but complaints about just how toxic political ads during football games this season is something I've heard IRL and seen on FB a few times... and the Trump ads talking about trans issues have been singled out in particular. I honestly don't get it... it wasn't that long ago that they were polling decently ahead on economic issues against Harris, and in the time that they have leaned heavily into this stuff, Harris in some recent polling has begun to pull even on economic issues. It seems like malpractice to me, it didn't work in the last midterm or off-year cycle, and yet they keep going back to the well anyway.

These rumors seem like a diversion. Until anyone reputable reports anything, if there even is anything, probably shouldn't engage

The UAW may be unique in this regard, but while Ds still do struggle with trade union voters relative to the past, at least with Trump around, I've never really bought the "full on collapse" narrative that the media / Rs have been running with.

What the hell

The Georgia Supreme Court ruling this morning blocking the new rules from the State Election Board would suggest reduced risk of shenanigans

I've been wondering about the TX-15 thing for a while, particularly given that she's, at best, going to finish around 2020 Biden numbers in all likelihood with Hispanics. Not the first time they've talked about this district, curious what they see in it.

What on earth...

It won't happen, but he really needs to come out on camera... Along with Esper and Mattis.

Going back to the MOE point, everything is extremely tight across *all* 7 states. To the point where polling across all 7 at this point in time could have a historic level of accuracy and still result in either Kamala or Trump sweeping. (Either case is more probable than 270-268, even) Just think the usefulness of all of these models begins to have issues when all of these states are so tight. And when the lack of quality polling is present such that we have

Really it's all MOE stuff anyway

Those fake polls do get added to most of the aggregates though, and then circulated throughout social media. And in an environment where, again, there has been less high quality polling than ever, that matters a lot.