mtutiger

Tracking polls are really volatile, but I do wonder if there was a specific event on one of the days that caused that dip to happen or if it was just who they sampled one of the days

If they think they have Wisconsin in the bag, that's about as "reverse 2016" as it gets.

Where the main candidate goes and doesn't go says a lot.... ultimately they are the main attraction, not the VP (and certainly not JD Vance) I'm not saying they aren't expending effort in the state, but from a strategic standpoint, it signals that Wisconsin is lower on the priority list, at least at the moment.

JD Vance isn't Donald Trump, last I checked.... in many ways. Also, take a look at where Vance gave the speech (ie. Waukesha)

I have my issues with polling, but pretty skeptical of reading too far into early vote numbers (particularly as they are being compared to 2020). Nevada is the one state where it has historically worked, but even there due to automatic voter registration (and the tendency for many of folks to register as unaffiliated), it's not clear how much we can glean off of that.

Something is up in Wisconsin.... it's worth noting as well that Trump hasn't been in the state in two weeks and is not scheduled to visit in the upcoming few days either.

Beat me to it lol. Carbon County numbers are interesting too.... Rural America is a bit of a black box right now, but it suggests a pretty even or slight erosion could happen there too (large MOE tho)

...

Data is a little bit old, but if she's winning Northampton by these numbers, she's winning PA by something similar one would think... Its the bellwether county

It's also the reason that the people who say "well, he wasn't that bad in the first term" are delusional.... he's not going to be surrounded by adults this next time, and to romad's point, the impact will absolutely translate downward to into the actual workforce.

There's a lot of dismissal of this and the Waukesha mayor endorsements on social media this AM, but if she ends up doing better with GOP voters than expected (we will see), the signs will have been there in plain sight.

I remain pretty skeptical of early vote analysis, but I do think what we are seeing out of Detroit is a really good sign considering the tendency for the city to struggle with turnout relative to the statewide average

A few things notable here: He (privately) voted third party in 2016 and (privately) voted for Biden in 2020. Waukesha is the county seat of Waukesha County, emblematic of the Milwaukee suburbs and the largest basket of votes for the GOP in Wisconsin (and a county that he'll likely do worse in this election) Biden lost the City of Waukesha by ~6 points in 2020. He felt the need (and likely that he had the rope with his constituents) to make an endorsement *public* for Kamala Harris We talk about quantitative stuff a lot, but this is qualitative evidence of movement IMO

WOW (literally and figuratively)

I'm not watching, but sounds like another certified pundit moment

There's a balance that has to be struck; if you believe public polling, Trump is running more popular today than he did in 2020 or 2016. You can't avoid talking about him or the comments from John Kelly, have to go after him given that reality to try to drive home that reality to these sorts of voters... but she did enough to pivot to her issues, particularly in the second half of the town hall IMO I thought Dana Bash was unfair at the end in saying that she didn't address her agenda, I thought she did touch on parts of it. Could have done more, but I think she did fine in the grand scheme of things.

Also, LOL at all the conservatives pearl clutching over her agreeing with the characterization of DJT as a "fascist".... that guy has regularly thrown terms like "fascist" and "communist" and "marxist" at people for years and people just treat it like another day ending in "y"

Watched most of it, I thought she did fine all things considered.... the audience asked fair questions, although I do think Anderson Cooper definitely struck a more confrontational tone. Which is fine, she needs to show she can be challenged on this stage. In baseball terms, more of a double than a home run though. But fine.

Weird as hell

CNN Article Referenced: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/10/22/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-final-weeks It's anecdotal, but complaints about just how toxic political ads during football games this season is something I've heard IRL and seen on FB a few times... and the Trump ads talking about trans issues have been singled out in particular. I honestly don't get it... it wasn't that long ago that they were polling decently ahead on economic issues against Harris, and in the time that they have leaned heavily into this stuff, Harris in some recent polling has begun to pull even on economic issues. It seems like malpractice to me, it didn't work in the last midterm or off-year cycle, and yet they keep going back to the well anyway.

These rumors seem like a diversion. Until anyone reputable reports anything, if there even is anything, probably shouldn't engage

The UAW may be unique in this regard, but while Ds still do struggle with trade union voters relative to the past, at least with Trump around, I've never really bought the "full on collapse" narrative that the media / Rs have been running with.

What the hell

The Georgia Supreme Court ruling this morning blocking the new rules from the State Election Board would suggest reduced risk of shenanigans

I've been wondering about the TX-15 thing for a while, particularly given that she's, at best, going to finish around 2020 Biden numbers in all likelihood with Hispanics. Not the first time they've talked about this district, curious what they see in it.