mtutiger

I differ with what Ed has said in the past insofar that I don't think it's completely worthless information (obviously pretty important for the campaigns themselves), but it's pretty worthless for people like us for the most part.

I mean, they actually might be via their vote history. But in some of these states, particularly in PA but also MI/WI as well, you're going to get people who are registered (PA) or model (MI/WI) as Rs who will end up voting for Kamala Harris, and that number could be not-insignificant. Like, if Harris ends up improving her margin in Waukesha County, she isn't necessarily doing it by turning out more people who model as Ds.... she's persuading people who model as Rs.

This, of course, assumes that everyone modeled as an R in early vote is a vote for Trump. (same applies in the other direction as well)

I honestly don't know.... but I suspect it's voters who only show up for a Presidential election or demos that generally don't turn out at high rates (ie. young voters, particularly males)

With low propensity "Barstool" types as well, it just demonstrates the weakness of Trump's position insofar that the groups that are commonly seen as places he's gaining (young men, non-white men) are among the lowest propensity voters in the first place. Whereas Harris is commonly seen to be gaining with some of the highest propensity voters (ie. white suburban women, college educated voters, maybe to a lesser extent white non college women) I sometimes think that gets lost in how the demographics of this election are covered. Again, it doesn't mean he cannot win, but a lot has to go right when your strength goes through lower propensity voter types.

For what it's worth, David Plouffe has suggested a couple of times that they aren't seeing a ton of intensity with low-propensity voters like this in their early vote data thus far.

For a little perspective, this is close to twice the percentage of Arab Americans in Michigan (another group we have heard a ton about this election)

I am open to the idea the last minute push to change Nebraska's EC allocation may be part of the story and may make a shift toward KH more pronounced perhaps. I do imagine she will end up doing at least a couple of points better in Waukesha County though

IIRC the district was actually made more red after redistricting, although not sure whether the 7 represents old district lines or not. Either way, all evidence suggests he's going to get his clock cleaned in Omaha.

I've never been able to say this eloquently enough, but this is right... it's been right for a long long time. And it explains why they never seem to get political coverage of any of these elections right.

Trump also won a lot of suburban votes in 2016 that he'll never win again. It was a different electorate, please just let it go. If he wins this time, it will not be related in any way, shape or form to that election.

It is not acting like and does not look like a winning campaign. Obviously we heard similar things during 2016, but he actually was seen as *losing* then... fast forward to today, and they are, at least by most election models and polling, considered slight *favorites* right now. Yet they don't look like a campaign that is trying to win. I wonder if the stuff they have internally is as rosy as the public stuff we see. We'll find out in 9 days or so.

Where did they find this guy? Unreal

Also, its just attrition.... the Pattersons and Youngs are all dead and buried at this point, along with at least some of the people who populated Oakland County and Detroit during their terms. The suburbs of any city, be it Detroit, Philly, Milwaukee, Chicago, wherever, are now populated much more with people who the grievances of the past don't register. Not totally, but they are different and they are changing... With respect to Michigan, I really think Donald Trump ****ed up when he came to the Detroit Economic Club and took a big giant dump on the city. And wouldn't be surprised why (though polling is close) that Michigan seems to be drifting toward being Harris' best swing state. (And perhaps why Debbie Dingell, a person who is never relaxed before an election, was playing beer pong yesteday)

All behind the "Trump-Vance" banner.... all of it.

Yeah, sure, okay

Again, the message isn't for those who are even voting for the guy... It's for everyone else

I don't know what the future is for the GOP if he loses... I'm pretty sure I know what it looks like if he wins. If someone doesn't like the direction he's taking the party right now, this is the moment of choosing.

Wow. Wow

Republican Congresswoman from South Florida

My question isn't aimed for the Trumpy base... It's aimed at those who don't like the direction of this party. We have at least one of those here.

I'll say this: if you are conservative in a swing state longing for a new and improved GOP after this, especially knowing that Kamala Harris will in all likelihood be constrained by a GOP Senate... What is there to lose? On a purely pragmatic level, how isn't the choice obvious?

Martin kinda makes my point: Allentown (and Lehigh County) are seen as suburban in nature outside of Philly, and Allentown is of outsized importance with respect to Puerto Rican population in PA. It's not your father's SEPA. And in a race where, based on reporting and his campaigns own words, he's depending on Hispanics to vote for him, these comments can make a pretty difference on the margins (at a minimum)

I won't make a judgment on saying he won't win in spite of this, but I don't think this is effective in this context in an election which, based on Trump's own campaign, relies greatly on backfilling suburban women with Black and Latino men. I also think the suburbs of all of these cities (Detroit, Philly and Milwaukee in particular) are changing a lot... They are growing, they are more diverse, and the people who live in them don't necessarily respond the dog whistles in quite the same way. With respect to Detroit, it isn't L. Brooks Patterson's Oakland County anymore... People dont necessarily harbor the same animosities that they used to, and on a cultural level, especially seen during the Tigers and Lions playoffs runs, the "Detroit v Everyone" framing doesn't die off at Eight Mile. There's a level of cohesion today that wasn't the case 20 or 30 years ago

But yes, it's Kamala Harris that is inviting violence. GMAFB