mtutiger

Without question.... Although at this point, I'm just hoping the ultimate winner comes out of the NL

Last time I ever second guess our King Lynn Henning lol

I don't think Trump's handling of COVID redounded to his political advantage, tbh... I think it cost him reelection.

The Brewers are a bit of a cautionary tale.... great pitching, but you need an offense to make noise in the playoffs.

George doesn't want for anything at all, but he's gotta point here.... politics tends to attract the absolute worst people these days.

This is the thing I keep going back to: if he would have handled it with even a modicum of the seriousness it required, it would have been a goldmine for him. But to quote the dude from the Indiana Jones movie, "he chose poorly"

The precinct that I live in went from Clinton +2 to Biden +16 in four years. Change happens, folks.

I'm just trying to stick to the facts, no emotion... Trump isn't God... not every trend that happened in 2020 redounded to his benefit. Reminds me of Vito Corleone dressing down Johnny Fontaine. Calm down.

Randy Arozarena... man

The board won't let me edit my post, so.... Biden got 16M more than Hillary. He (or someone else) could widen in that in four years, believe it or not. The composition of the electorate changes cycle to cycle. I legit hate the Trump, you can never underestimate him, I get it. But while people ascribe an almost God-like status to the guy, Donald Trump is not immune to the changes that happen in any four year cycle. He will have to build a different coalition in 2024 than he did in 2020, just as he did in 2020 versus his coalition in 2016. I wouldn't count him out, but I just feel like people in this thread are treating the guy a little more like Moses than they should be... he's an existential threat, but the same laws apply to him as any other politician IMO

Biden got 16M more than Hillary.

I won't say he'll get less voters, but a hypothetical 2024 win is going to be different in demographic composition than his 2016 win and 2020 loss. It just will be.... just as it was for every other President who ran for reelection or, in the case of Cleveland, ran for the office again. People talk about absolutes with this stuff, but there are changes going on under the hood all the time. So yeah, he'll need to do some addition... he has avenues to do it, but he will need to do it

100%. Trump is a turnout machine... not just in favor, but also in opposition

I'd have to pull the numbers, but as I recall Obama actually did win over some voters who did not vote for him in 2008 and did turn out additional voters in 2012. And that played a role in his reelection. I'd also add that Mitt Romney won more votes than John McCain did as well. Practitioners of this stuff (think people like Murphy and Axelrod and Carville) tend to harp on persuasion as being critical to any candidate looking to win reelection... you need to add some new voters in to offset any losses you have from the previous election. Trump is not immune to that... how he kept it close (ie. More low propensity voters, doing better with POC) is proof.

My question is whether / how Trump actually adds voters. Part of how he kept the last one close is two-fold: he managed to find more low-propensity voters and he did better with Hispanics and (to a lesser extent) black voters. He needed that given how much worse he did in the suburbs. Winning reelection, or winning the office back in this case, requires addition. Especially if trends in the suburbs continue. I could see him adding with non-college POC, but it is hard to see him turning out more low propensity voters than he did last time. But you never know.

Part of the issue is that the Republicans Trump lost now call themselves "Independents" or "Democrats". At the end of the day, there's just a big trade going on under the surface where some contingent of old D voters (generally blue collar whites, some non-college POC) are leaning more R and some contingent of voters in suburban areas are leaning more D. And there is little evidence that this is changing. One reason, at least in Texas, why I can tell the dynamic in the suburbs isn't changing much is how the Republican legislature is drawing Congressional districts for redistricting... moves like cutting Denton out of its current district and putting it into a district with the Panhandle counties, cutting Plano/Frisco out from the rest of Collin County and putting it in a district with Texarkana.... these are all things you do when you are concerned with the trends in the existing district as-drawn.

His struggles in the suburbs aren't going to get any easier either.

Sure. He drives turnout in a way that the likely voter models don't capture. I get it. In and of itself, though, that doesn't mean that there isn't 53% of GOP voters who would prefer a different candidate. And even if it was off, most polling misses are off by 5-10%, not 40. (ie. He'd still only be at 57% or so with primary voters) My only point is that while I believe the poll may very well be accurate, its functionally meaningless in a primary process with "winner take all" contests and with an electorate who will still suck it up and vote for him if he's on the ballot against a D

Fox "News"

There are a lot of people who voted for Trump who did not like him but felt that he was the lesser of two evils. I suspect that has not changed in the last 8 mos or so. I'm not sure that a poll asking GOP voters if who they would like to see be nominated in 2024 is predictive of elections. Just as polls on approval alone aren't necessarily predictive either.

You'll have to take that up with the judge.

I would be fine with Seager or Story.... 9r even Semien if the contract isn't too long. The reality is that they need a Plan B. Even if they go hard at Correa, there's no guarantee they reel him in.

The truth is, a lot of folks will not try if he declares. Whether the polling is accurate or not, the end result of a Trump run, given how heavy the GOP Primary process is with "winner-take-all" contests, is a resounding victory for the former guy. The political media (ie. Folks like Jonathan Martin) are trying to sell papers and draw eyeballs so they are kinda hanging on this poll result... but even if he's at 47% or whatever among GOP voters, it doesn't challenge the reality that he wipes the field in an open primary. He'd have to get down to around 20-25% before any drama starts unfolding.

As I alluded above, primary support =/= general election support. I absolutely believe that there's a sizeable contingent in the GOP that would love to see Trump pass the torch of trumpism to someone else. But that those same people will still, push comes to shove, support him in a general election against Biden or any other D