chasfh
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Everything posted by chasfh
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I asked you directly about the hypocrisy of criticizing fatherless homes while creating fatherless homes by his own action—is that not by itself a dealbreaker? You answered an unasked question about whether he denied their existence, which you did say was a dealbreaker. I asked about the very real hypocrisy, which absolutely happened; you answered about a hypothetical denial, which you doubted even happened. You can see they’re not the same. Which is OK, I meant it more or less as a rhetorical question anyway.
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Maybe not 1972 Nixon, but perhaps a 2022 Nixon might be simpatico with Trumpian authoritarianism.
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So, a macroeconomic event in the next nine months that results in massive deflation which drives all pay down by double digits? Essentially, an economic depression that rivals the one from 90 years ago? That’s one way, I guess.
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He also gets credit for 2016: 86-75. Which, to me, makes 2017-2022 look even worse.
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Further: While hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh’s job is in jeopardy given the team’s lack of production, Hinch’s name has not yet popped up among those of managers on the hot seat. In fact, the length of both his contract and that of general manager Al Avila aren’t public knowledge, though they are believed to be linked in their expiration dates; the latter, whose first contract covered 2016-20, signed an extension in July 2019 but obviously hasn’t gotten anywhere with the team’s rebuilding. For all of the team’s promise, a housecleaning is probably in order if the results don’t improve.
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What circumstances would have to transpire for Carlos Correa to sign a long term deal that pays him $10 million less AAV, as well as giving up $20 million over the next two years? If he has even a decent year, no way he signs for that. Flip side, if he collapses and has a terrible year, or his year gets cut short by injury, no way any team offers him that.
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I don’t think any team would have agreed to offer him an opt after one year on a 10/340, and I don’t believe Correa (basically Boras) would have insisted on that. Maybe after two years, more likely after three or four.
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I would bet that if Carlos Correa were asked why he turned down the 10/275 offer, he would say that it was because it was a lowball offer. If he thought it was a good offer, his market peak, then he would have taken it.
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That’s OK, you don’t have to answer the actual question I asked.
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In case you skipped the page 184 and landed directly on page 185 So again: the whole dissembling about single mothers/fatherless homes at the same time he himself personally created four such homes … not enough for you?
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By speaking so haltingly and repeating the same phrases over and over, was Judge Luttig stalling for time or something?
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I never complained about Correa not being here, and I can’t speak for anyone who is. But I’m arguing beyond the idea that his market was going to be firmly, and finally, established in the offseason of 2021-2022. He doesn’t believe that, and his agreeing to a 3/105 with opt outs is his way of demonstrating that. BTW, was he demanding a one-year opt on whatever 10/340+ he would have signed? I missed that one.
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I disagree that the mere signing of kids they drafted or scouted is a success for the organization.
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I would not consider the cartel of Major League Baseball owners to be any kind of perfect market, especially since there is an established history of collusion among them. So I reject the idea that the single 10-year offer he received is the perfect representation of his worth. The Tigers made an offer that everyone knew he would never take, including them if they have any clue. There’s no due diligence in that as far as I can see.
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Well, OK. I think you were lowballed on the house. 😁
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No one beat the offer because there were—and really, still are—concerns about Correa’s health, and all totally fair concerns. No one wants to be on the hook for 10/341 for a guy who might miss 30 or 40 or 50 games a year. That’s why no one beat the Tigers offer that everyone knew Correa would never take. He has a big health question mark on his forehead. But you keep confusing the idea that he took 3/105 instead of 10/275 as a failure on Correa’s part of misunderstanding his own worth. I don’t think that’s what’s going on here. A healthy Correa is clearly worth 10/341+. Now he has to demonstrate that he’s worth the 10/341+ through both tremendous production, which he is capable of achieving at his 50th percentile projection, and staying on the field practically every day, which he needs at least one year to demonstrate, and maybe more. The big risk is not that he won’t perform while on the field, but that he won’t stay on the field enough. He was in 148 games last year, and so far he’s been in 42 of 65, which isn’t great, but he could still end up with 130 or more games played by the end of this year. If he does that and gets a 6-win season, I would say he stands a decent chance of getting at least 10/360, particularly since he will be the only guy at his level and position in the market. And if he doesn’t get that offer, then I guess he’ll exercise his option in 2023 and try again.
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I don’t think there was due diligence at all, if by that you mean the Tigers studied the market and made what they thought was a compelling offer at the top of that market. Because that clearly did not happen. Which is why I wonder whether they made the offer for a different reason, which would be to mollify their fans with the appearance of trying, however weak that might look. I don’t know whether that’s the case.
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The bold part is exactly right, but I don’t think the risk is all that high. It’s not the same risk as you going to Vegas and putting your whole wad on 23 straight up. The risk to Correa is far less than that, he thinks there’s an excellent chance he wins this risk, and I’m inclined to agree with him. That has nothing to do with whether that means the Tigers lowballed him. They most definitely did. His minimum number for a ten-year contract was 340. We were the first team to bid, we offered 275, and that was three months before spring training was scheduled to start. There was no chance he was going to sign for that, especially at that time, and everybody with any clue knew that. That’s practically the platonic ideal of a lowball offer. OK, let’s talk about your house now. You wanna sell your house in Warren. Zillow says it’s worth $250K. You list it for $250K. You have a clear expectation that you will get at least $250K. You get a grand total of one offer, which is for $190K. You decide not to sell the house after all and wait for another day to do so. Are you going to maintain that you weren’t lowballed by that offer, and that you must have merely misread the market instead? Or would you take the $190K, because that’s clearly where the market is?
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Then why are you offering them all up as examples of Avila drafting and signing successes?
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I’m not even allowed to express a view that differs from yours? 😉 I don’t think there was even a 0.02% chance Correa was going to take a first offer of 10/275 from any team in November. If Avila thought Correa would take that, then he should be immediately banned from participating in free agent markets at all, because he has no idea how to read markets. I do think, however, that there’s a better than 2% chance that Avila knew there was zero chance that Correa would take the offer. How much better, I can’t say, but that possibility is certainly on the table.
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I don’t know anything about your house, but I do know that Carlos Correa is worth more than $27.5 million a year, and he got a lot more than that for the next three years. I think signing the one-year deal with two player options for $35 million a year is a good gamble for him to take, because I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance he ends up making a lot more money over the next ten years than $275 million.
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How long before he shows up at a rally as guest of Trump as being an example of the strength of our Second Amendment freedoms to arm against the tyranny of government? 😉
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I’m out of Likes for the day, so … like.
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I’ll put two bits on Stephen Miller. he’s been curiously absent from this whole deal so far …
