We haven’t talked about this in a long time, but I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that the Supremes will stop short of overturning Roe completely this summer. I can’t believe they would affirm it, either. My best guess is that they punt Roe to a future year, perhaps 2025.
This is an election year, and overturning Roe will create the danger of lighting a fire under Democrat voters, driving them to the polls in great gobs such that it would lead the Dems to victory in both the House and the Senate. That’s a fairly real possibility, and would be a horrible thing for conservatives all by itself.
But the other thing overturning Roe does is to douse the fire on the Republican side to campaign and fundraise against federal protections of Roe in the first place. Abortion is the most animating issue in today’s Republican Party because of its hold not only on red hats, but on many moderate conservative voters as well. A lot a lot of money gets raised on Pro-Life; taking that all away will not only cost R candidates a lot of money, but perhaps the election right along with it.
I don’t think the radical right wing Supremes will want to risk handing the House and Senate to Democrats, especially with the White House in Dem hands for the next two-and-a-half years. It would be better for the Court to hold off on Roe, which would allow it to maintain its position as a hot button political issue for the their side, and wait until Republicans gain trifecta control in 2025 to finally overturn Roe once and for all. By then the potential for consequences will be less severe, and elected Republicans will then have ample time to rig the elections process in the majority of states to maintain control in 2026 and beyond.
To anyone who scoffs at the idea and maintains the Supreme Court could never be so political as to take such crass electoral considerations under advisement, may I remind you that this is the year 2022, as well as Year Five of the Age of Trump.