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Everything posted by chasfh
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Is it your takeaway that I'm predicting Alex Lange is the next Josh Hader?
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Thanks. I understand that relievers are inconsistent when it comes to outcomes, mainly because of the increased variability that result from small sample sizes. That said, his Statcast percentiles rank among the highest in the game, and certain of them which are more process-based, like velocity, whiff rate, chase rate, K rate, and probably quality of contact, are probably portable from year to year.
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Also, have we really reached the point in this debate where "he has allowed 0 homers" is being offered up as a negative in support of a position?
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Josh Hader also has a higher-than-average walk rate, a super low BABIP, and has also allowed 0 homers. Gimme that guy all year long.
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And that's because the Cubs are terrible traders, practically the anti-Rays. Remember, we also got Candelario and Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.
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I think there are some things about Lange that might make his case a little different from the typical Tigers reliever who is good in some small samples only to be terrible in others. For one thing, his B-Ref peripherals are stronger this year. Yes, he was soft in Toledo last year and there was some mirage to his decent stats last year, but his FIP is way down and his strikeout rate his ticked up. On Fangraphs we see his SIERA is lower and swinging strike rate is up, which tracks with his lower FIP. Yesterday he hurt his outcome stats a bit with two walks, but on the other hand, it was his longest outing of the year by far: 1-2/3 innings, nine batters faced, 31 pitches. He cruised through the first inning with three outs on 12 pitches, but then there were the two walks at the end, and if it was anyone batting but terrible-no good-doesn’t-know-what-he’s-doing-lately Joey Gallo, it might have been three walks, who knows. Point is, we may be learning that Lange is not a 30-pitch guy, which may actually strengthen the argument to try him as closer at some point. His Statcast process peripherals, though, are much better than even his improved peripherals: Ground ball rate, line drive rate, weak contact, solid hits, barrels—almost doesn’t matter what you look at, Lange is way better this year than last year. Guys can make improvements in the offseason that can lead to these kinds of improvements. But the thing I like best about Lange is his eye-popping Statcast card: Like, wow. That is just a sea of red. The main thing he has to fix is that walk rate, but if he can bring that in even to 50%, this is the card of an elite late-inning reliever. And it’s not as though the Tigers are swimming in relievers with Statcast cards that look like that: Basically Fulmer, who’s going to bolt this offseason and get good and paid, and Lange, who we have for cheap through 2027 if we want him. Sure, in a world where anything is possible, it’s possible that Lange’s card is a mirage and he’ll be all blue by the end of the year and into next. I’d be willing to bet against that happening, especially under the Fetter regime. I’d hate to see one of the few decent young relievers we’ve had passing through this system just go away, the same way Chad Green and Luis Cessa and Jose Alvarez and Corey Knebel did. And so far this year, Lange looks better than all of them. People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade for some similarly-talented prospect if they want to. But me, I’m gonna root against that. I like what I see from this guy, and unless he has an abject collapse starting right around now, I’m gonna wanna see a lot more. EDIT: Jose Alvarez, not Jose Alvarado
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Didn’t we get Lange himself as a prospect in exchange for a veteran dump? That was just three years ago. So if we’re going to turn around and dump Lange for yet another prospect, when he himself is just one year removed from prospect status, then exactly what the hell are we doing here??
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I really dislike TV or radio broadcasters who act like fans, refer to players by their cutesy-poo clubhouse nicknames, and actively root for the team while play is in progress. It’s unprofessional and belongs in a different venue than a game broadcast.
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I know everyone here hates Bill Maher, and he certainly has been galloping around on his pet hobby horses for some time now, but this might help explain why.
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As if the guns laws of red states don't apply to their cities. Highlarious.
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Trevor Story got off to a slow start, but he is slashing .255/.353/.592 with nine bombs, a .395 wOBA and a wRC+ of 161 over his last 26 games. I don't think he can be dismissed as a bust just yet.
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Believe it or not, Willi has now been in the system five years, including three pre-Hinch, during which he suffered at the hands of development personnel who weren’t knowledgable enough to even develop a complex about how inadequate at development they were. Willi might possibly be too far gone to fix well enough to be a major league regular, but he’s also probably a year too young to completely give up on the idea. Best option I can think of is, once the other outfielders come back, give Willi the rest of the year at Toledo (or Erie!) for an extensive development regimen that includes outfield reps—one last gasp to turn him around. If he doesn’t show significant enough improvement a year from today, DFA him.
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All the single-minded kvetching about playing one guy in one position, when the solution is to platoon him out there anyway with a kid who's 0-for-12 lifetime so far, just because the kid can take a slightly better route to the ball, just make me giggle. But man, you just nailed the issue with a single eloquent paragraph. Kudos.
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A lot of the players who are injured stink, too, but that's just another onion layer to cry over. The whole "win now" thing wasn't going to work unless everyone hit on all cylinders and nothing went wrong, which is no way to plan for a win now team in any event.
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It would have been a no-hitter had Kiner-Falefa caught that Miggy line drive.
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By the end of tomorrow’s game that will be 16 games in 15 days, plus two rainouts, which isn’t anything like a day off. It takes a psychic toll on you expecting to play that morning and amping up for it only to find the game’s been called off. If any team in baseball could use a Monday and a Thursday off in the same week, it’s this Tiger ballclub.
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Baez might not be getting us any runs at the plate, but he just saved us a couple of runs right there.
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Javier Baez very much gets into his own head, for worse and for better. It’s just the guy he is.
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To be honest I did not look up how Willi has been doing in the last couple weeks, but yeah, maybe not so much. I still say this is what you get when you overload the roster with eight infielders and two outfielders.
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I’m not downplaying defense. It’s not my fault Willi is playing out there. All I’m saying is AJ’s options are limited. That said, if you want to throw Harold, Hill and Grossman and nobody else into the outfield game after game until we get actual outfielders back on the active roster, I won’t object.
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You know what’s going to happen over time, right? The right wing narrative will somehow exonerate the Uvalde cops and portray them as bravely saving far more lives then had they done nothing, and that the parents hindered the cops’ operation, preventing them from carrying out their training and going into the building, the parents will end up being blamed for so many kids dying, the issue will be litigated for months in the pundit media, and then we’ll move on to the next crisis having done nothing about this problem. Impossible, you say? We have all the video and the audio of everything that happened that day, don’t we? They can’t tell us our own eyes are lying, can they? Well, we have all that video and audio and more from January 6th, too.
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Infield is full up, especially with Harold on the roster, and DH and catcher positions are taken. As long as we need Willi’s bat—and we do at the moment—and as long as actual outfielders are hurt and few and far between, the options of where to put Willi in the field are limited. Once Meadows is fully healthy and Riley arrives in Detroit, and once the bats of slumping regulars get untracked, then the calculation regarding Willi changes. If Hinch is regularly sitting either one of those guys in favor of Willi after that, then I’ll be more willing to hop aboard your bandwagon. In the meantime, and I’m not canonizing Hinch by saying this—I do think he gets far too harshly criticized here for dealing as best as anyone can with the shitty roster hand he has been dealt.
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At least they have plenty of firearm options for their suicide when it comes time. /s
