Red Wings Playoff Tracker 2026

[lordstanley]

So here we are, 68 games into a 82 game season, and it feels like the Wings’ playoff chances are around 50/50, although most playoff odd trackers sites are showing higher hopes in the 60s or even 70s.  Don’t know how much if at all they factor in things like the Larkin/Copp injuries or recent form. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if next week the Wings announce Larkin to still be out indefinitely. 
 

If you’re a more casual fan (as I am with the Pistons), but still hoping another Detroit sports fan makes the playoffs so have wandered over from the Tigers’ forum, welcome! This “primer” post is lengthy but I think you’ll find most posts going forward are shorter posts by those of us tracking rooting interest and results for that evening’s games. 
 

As we know, the top 3 teams in each division make the playoffs as do the conference’s 2 teams with the next best records. So 8 playoff teams per conference.

The Wings currently sit in 4th place in the Atlantic division, holding the 1st wildcard spot. The Wings’ 82 points are 6 points behind division leader Buffalo (and 8 points behind conference leader Carolina), 2 points behind 2nd place Tampa, tied with 3rd place Montreal and 2 points ahead of 5th place Boston.  Primary threats on the outside looking in are Columbus at 3 points behind the Wings and Ottawa at 5 points behind the Wings. Philly and Washington at 8 points behind the Wings are longshots running out of time. This overstates the Wings’ position though because as you will see from the standings below most of the teams in the mix have 1 or 2 games in hand in the Wings, and can be expected to pick up at least a point per game in hand.

 

The first three wins are Regulation Wins “RW” (winning the game in 60 minutes), Regulation Overtime Wins “ROW” (winning the games in either the regulation 60 minutes or 5 minutes overtime) and Wins “W” (all wins including those decided by a shootout).

 

Playoff format is that the conference’s division winner with the better record plays the #2 wildcard, the conference’s division winner with the lesser record plays the #1 wildcard, and the #2 teams in the divisions play the #3 teams in their division.  

The Wings have 14 games remaining, with 8 at home and 6 on the road. 

Oddly enough, they play Philadelphia 3 times! 

Looks like a lot of evenly matched games on paper. The Wings only have 2 games against teams more than 2 points above them in the standings - at Buffalo and home to Minnesota. But the only 3 opponents way behind the Wings are the games against New Jersey, Florida and NY Rangers.

The Wings only have two back to backs left, and in both cases they play the first game at home and the second game on the road. 

The Wings have 82 points through 68 games. In 2025 they had 70 points through 68 games and were through 3 points out of a playoff spot - finished with 86 points and were 5 points behind the final playoff spot.  In 2024 they had 74 points through 68 games and were 1 point out of a playoff spot - finished with 91 points and had the same number of points as the final playoff team but lost the tiebreaker. In 2023 they had 69 points through 68 games and were 9 points out of a playoff spot - finished with 80 points and were 12 points behind the final playoff spot.

I think 97 points is the safe zone.  Chance that 94-96 points could be enough but I wouldn’t count on it, given the imbalance between the East and West this year. As of this morning, 10 of the NHL’s top 13 teams overall in points are in the East. Columbus is #12 overall and has 2 points more than the Pacific Divison leader but as of this moment wouldn’t be among the NHL’s 16 team playoff field  

Edited 8 hours ago by lordstanley

[lordstanley]

As to how many points are typically needed to make the playoffs, here are the 8th and 9th spots for the 10 full seasons going back to 2014, so excludes the Covid years of 2020 and 2021. 

In 4 of the past 20 full-season playoff races (10 years x 2 conferences), 20%, a 96 point team has missed the playoffs. 
 

2025

East:  Last team in 91 pts, first team out 89 pts

West: Last team in 96 pts, first team out 96 pts

2024

East:  Last team in 91 pts, first team out 91 pts

West: Last team in 98 pts, first team out 92 pts

2023

East:  Last team in 92 pts, first team out 91 pts

West: Last team in 95 pts, first team out 93 pts

2022

East:  Last team in 100 pts, first team out 94 pts

West: Last team in 97 pts, first team out 94 pts

2019

East:  Last team in 98 pts, first team out 96 pts

West: Last team in 90 pts, first team out 86 pts

2018

East:  Last team in 97 pts, first team out 96 pts

West: Last team in 95 pts, first team out 94 pts

2017

East:  Last team in 95 pts, first team out 94 pts

West: Last team in 94 pts, first team out 87 pts

2016

East:  Last team in 96 pts, first team out 93 pts

West: Last team in 87 pts, first team out 82 pts

2015

East:  Last team in 98 pts, first team out 96 pts

West: Last team in 99 pts, first team out 95 pts

2014

East:  Last team in 93 pts, first team out 90 pts

West: Last team in 91 pts, first team out 89 pts

 

Edited 7 hours ago by lordstanley

[buddha]

i think its going to be over 100 this year.  too many teams get loser points and the east simply doesnt lose.  pittsburgh blew out colorado last night!

the next two weeks will probably decide their season.  

[lordstanley]

Games of note tonight Tuesday March 17

Carolina at Columbus - the most important game of the night, want a Columbus loss in regulation 

Boston at Montreal - main thing is to avoid a 3 pt game in which even the loser picks up a point from an overtime or shootout loss

NYI at Toronto - if Columbus were to pass the Wings but the Wings were to finish ahead of NYI, the Wings wouldn’t be displaced from a playoff spot . Columbus would simply be taking NYI’s spot as 3rd place in the Metro (same applies to Pittsburgh)

Buffalo at Vegas and Tampa at Seattle - I think it’s a long shot that the Wings overtake either the Sabres or Lightning, but might as well cheer against both

[lordstanley]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

i think its going to be over 100 this year.  too many teams get loser points and the east simply doesnt lose.  pittsburgh blew out colorado last night!

the next two weeks will probably decide their season.  

Possible. The Habs and Pens are at 102 pt pace, the Islander, Bruins and Wings are at 99 pt pace, the Jackets are at 98 pt pace. One of those teams will miss. So the cut could indeed be triple digits if all play a bit above their season’s pace (and Ottawa playing at 96 pt so far are still in it if they step up). Chances are one will drop off though. 

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Chances are one will drop off though. 

well, we know one team  has. 😟

Edited 5 hours ago by gehringer_2

[lordstanley]

38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

well, we know one team  has. 😟

Yeah somehow it feels worse than 4-4-2 for 10 pts in 10 games since the Olympics break, doesn’t it. I think it’s the blown 2-0 lead to Vegas at home and the goose egg in Florida after leading until 90 seconds it that have really put a damper on things. Those are two or three blown points, I guess one could argue that taking Dallas to OT after trailing 2-0 on the road in the 3rd period is a salvaged point. 11 or 12 points in 10 games would have felt better and would have been perfectly respectable given that 7 of the 10 were on the road.  Need to take advantage of these upcoming home games. 

Edited 4 hours ago by lordstanley

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

well, we know one team has...

A three year history of doing so...

PLEASE step it up this year Wings!!!

Do something DIFFERENT for once!!!