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Posted
3 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I think the problem with WAR isn’t that it’s a flawed statistic to look at—but that people want to assume that it’s a consistent and predictable way to evaluate a players future production.

The question shouldn’t be “what was his WAR last year?”  It should be “are his underlying metrics supporting the idea that his WAR is repeatable?”

I tend to agree.  I use it mostly to help describe what has happened in the past.  Some of the elements of the various WARs are indeed predictive of the future, but when you try to mix all the parts together, there are a lot of things that can change in the future.  For the future, it only works as baseline.

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