Deleterious Posted July 6 Author Posted July 6 5/$100 million would be my offer to Ausar and I would not budge. People keep trying to comp Ausar to Dyson Daniels and his 4/$100 million extension. But Daniels shot 34% from three the year before he signed his extension. Ausar shot 25% from three this year. If I'm Thompson I wouldn't sign an extension this summer. Any number being offered now will be there next year. If he improves even a little bit on offense, that extension number is going to grow pretty fast. Injury is a concern I suppose, and he has missed a lot of games in two different seasons. But those were almost all due to his blood clot. It cost him the last part of his rookie season and the beginning part of his 2nd season. Other than that he has been fairly durable. By the way. After shooting 34% from three and signing that extension, Daniels shot 18% from three this season. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 6 Author Posted July 6 Pretty sure that means he will not be part of a S&T Quote
Deleterious Posted July 6 Author Posted July 6 I see a lot of Pistons fans interested in him. Not sure why they would want another player that doesn't space the floor. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 7 Author Posted July 7 Ok so something kinda interesting with the Pistons' cap situation right now. Right now they only have 3 guys with guaranteed money next summer — Cade, Okorie, and Lanier. Holland's option is basically a lock to get picked up too, so that's 4. Duren makes 5, and honestly that might be the whole list if they don't extend Ausar. Depending on what Duren's new deal looks like, they could be sitting on like $70-75 mil in cap space next summer. And yeah the free agent class looks stacked right now, but it always does when you're looking at it a year out. By the time it actually gets here, anybody good will have already signed an extension. All that's left is restricted free agents, and those guys either get matched by their own team or you end up way overpaying just to pry them loose. Cap space just isn't really the flex it used to be. The Thompson extension could be something to watch. I figured his cap hold at $27 million next summer. If the first year of his extension is more than that, they are better off not extending him to keep him at the lower cap number. If it's lower than $27 million, extend him and get a few more million in cap space. Quote
HugoD Posted July 7 Posted July 7 52 minutes ago, Deleterious said: Ok so something kinda interesting with the Pistons' cap situation right now. Right now they only have 3 guys with guaranteed money next summer — Cade, Okorie, and Lanier. Holland's option is basically a lock to get picked up too, so that's 4. Duren makes 5, and honestly that might be the whole list if they don't extend Ausar. Depending on what Duren's new deal looks like, they could be sitting on like $70-75 mil in cap space next summer. And yeah the free agent class looks stacked right now, but it always does when you're looking at it a year out. By the time it actually gets here, anybody good will have already signed an extension. All that's left is restricted free agents, and those guys either get matched by their own team or you end up way overpaying just to pry them loose. Cap space just isn't really the flex it used to be. The Thompson extension could be something to watch. I figured his cap hold at $27 million next summer. If the first year of his extension is more than that, they are better off not extending him to keep him at the lower cap number. If it's lower than $27 million, extend him and get a few more million in cap space. That's intriguing, thanks for laying that out. I'm not sure how to feel about this offseason vis-a-vis next year; they could be a somewhat improved product due to internal improvement and maybe some good external fits, but I no longer have the acumen or time to have a stronger feeling. What you laid out here though shows that maybe (hopefully?) Trajan et. al are looking a few years out. Quote
buddha Posted July 7 Posted July 7 they are treading water now. relying on internal improvement from cade, ausar, and (probably) duren. the others are shuffling chairs on the titanic. more shooters but less defense. hopefully it opens up the floor more for cade. Quote
Betrayer Posted July 7 Posted July 7 On 7/6/2026 at 11:45 AM, Deleterious said: 5/$100 million would be my offer to Ausar and I would not budge. People keep trying to comp Ausar to Dyson Daniels and his 4/$100 million extension. But Daniels shot 34% from three the year before he signed his extension. Ausar shot 25% from three this year. If I'm Thompson I wouldn't sign an extension this summer. Any number being offered now will be there next year. If he improves even a little bit on offense, that extension number is going to grow pretty fast. Injury is a concern I suppose, and he has missed a lot of games in two different seasons. But those were almost all due to his blood clot. It cost him the last part of his rookie season and the beginning part of his 2nd season. Other than that he has been fairly durable. By the way. After shooting 34% from three and signing that extension, Daniels shot 18% from three this season. He's not a max player for sure. But this is the opposite extreme. No way you're getting the best perimeter defender in the league and a top 3 finalist for DPoY at 20M a year. My guess would be something more like 25-30M. I have no problem with that amount for him as the #3 guy in the core. The real problem is that Duren isn't the #2 and he's about to be paid like it. That makes Ausar's lack of shooting a bigger issue than it should be, but I'm not penalizing Ausar for that, I'm doing a S&T with Duren to solve the problem. Quote
buddha Posted July 7 Posted July 7 6 minutes ago, Betrayer said: He's not a max player for sure. But this is the opposite extreme. No way you're getting the best perimeter defender in the league and a top 3 finalist for DPoY at 20M a year. My guess would be something more like 25-30M. I have no problem with that amount for him as the #3 guy in the core. The real problem is that Duren isn't the #2 and he's about to be paid like it. That makes Ausar's lack of shooting a bigger issue than it should be, but I'm not penalizing Ausar for that, I'm doing a S&T with Duren to solve the problem. i go back and forth on whether this delay in signing duren is a good thing (because they are working out an s&t and exploring all possibilities), or a bad thing (theyre just haggling over $35m-$40m). given that trajan has missed on every "big name" in the book so far this offseason, i suspect its the latter. no one in the media will criticize you for duren getting overpaid. they will crucify you if you take the bold step of recognizing the spacing issues with ausar/duren could be solved by moving duren and then actually moving him. always bet on job survival and a lack of imagination winning out over strategic long term planning. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 7 Author Posted July 7 I hope he takes the qualifying offer then walks next summer. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 7 Author Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, buddha said: if he takes the QO he cannot be traded, correct? He can be traded, but he receives a no trade clause. So he has to agree to it. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 7 Author Posted July 7 Sounds like it might be a bit longer until the Collins deal is made official. I read that the Clippers want to bring Denver into the trade to help them get Watson. So we're probably waiting for them to finish negotiations. Quote
Betrayer Posted July 7 Posted July 7 It won't happen. They'll agree on 35-40M, but I'm hoping for an S&T while his value is probably the highest it will ever be, even with his recent playoff performance. The QO would be a train wreck. Losing an All-Star and All NBA player (deservingly or not) with nothing in return would be a disaster. On top of that, he's going to want playing time to showcase what he can do for some other team, but the organization has zero incentive to play him since he clearly won't want to be here. They might as well start Reed and play Onyenso behind him because there's no need to invest in and develop Duren. It would be a terrible situation for the locker room, for Duren, and for the franchise to come up empty on an All-Star. But that won't happen. This will end in a multi-year contract or a S&T. If he takes the QO he'll make about 10M and hope to get 44M/4yrs next offseason. That's a total of 186M. The Pistons are probably already offering him 35M over 5 years. That's a total of 175M. Sorry, but even Duren isn't dumb enough to risk injury over that little difference in pay. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 7 Author Posted July 7 Losing him for nothing is much better than overpaying. And honestly, if a guy does nothing in the playoffs, do you really care you lose him? The organization has plenty of incentive to play him. The first being he is currently their best center. The second being, mess around with his minutes for lesser players and see what happens. Every player in the league will take note of that. If you think It's hard to get free agents here now, try some BS like that. Greg Monroe played on his QO and it was fine. They didn't bench him for Quincy Miller or Jerebko, because that would be organizational suicide. He also went on to sign a pretty big contract the following summer. The QO + a max contract next season would be about $197 million total or about $4.5 million per year difference. The injury concern is real, but that can be mitigated by purchasing an insurance policy from Lloyd's of London that insures against lost wages due to injury. There are also quite a few unknown things. Maybe he values picking his own destination over anything else. Maybe he feels slighted by the Pistons offer and would rather go somewhere else even if it means losing money. We don't know what Detroit is offering Duren. People assume an AAV of $35 million, but we don't know that for sure. I doubt he takes it because one more playoff performance like last year, and he's cooked. Quote
NYLion Posted July 8 Posted July 8 4 hours ago, Deleterious said: I hope he takes the qualifying offer then walks next summer. That would be a disaster. I'm not a big Duren fan but to lose your 23 year old starting center who put up 19 and 10 for nothing would be a gross mismanagement of assets. You don't overpay him either but I'm sure there's a middle ground in the $30-35m/yr range on a long term deal or the still possible sign and trade scenario. You do not in any way settle for a QO then lose him for nothing and on top of it likely create issues in the locker room in a lame duck season. 1 Quote
Betrayer Posted July 8 Posted July 8 Pistons are trading Caris and 2 seconds to the Bucks for Prince and Gary Harris. Quote
Hongbit Posted July 8 Posted July 8 4 minutes ago, Betrayer said: Pistons are trading Caris and 2 seconds to the Bucks for Prince and Gary Harris. Can someone explain this deal to me like I’m 5. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 8 Author Posted July 8 16 minutes ago, NYLion said: That would be a disaster. I'm not a big Duren fan but to lose your 23 year old starting center who put up 19 and 10 for nothing would be a gross mismanagement of assets. You don't overpay him either but I'm sure there's a middle ground in the $30-35m/yr range on a long term deal or the still possible sign and trade scenario. You do not in any way settle for a QO then lose him for nothing and on top of it likely create issues in the locker room in a lame duck season. The Pistons don't control if he signs the QO or not. They don't really control the S&T either. Pretty much on Duren at this point. Letting him walk is preferable to overpaying him, and $35 million AAV is a massive overpay. They could have that position fixed by the time he leaves next summer. The locker room stuff is just a terrible argument. Again, Monroe played on a QO and it didn't cause any issues. If Duren does cause issues in the locker room, even a better reason to say bye. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 8 Author Posted July 8 13 minutes ago, Hongbit said: Can someone explain this deal to me like I’m 5. They just wanted out of LeVert. Instead of using his contract in a larger move, they traded for two guys that make half of what LeVert makes. That means they can no longer use that $15 million in a trade. They can use what Prince and Harris make, around $8 million. But the TPE they created can't be combined with players in a trade, so they can't use that. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 8 Author Posted July 8 I would guess one of these guys is cut. After the Collins deal goes through and Huerter is officially signed, they would have been at 14 with LeVert. Duren would make 15. So only sending out LeVert means they would be at 16. I suppose nothing really has to be done until Duren signs. There could be more trades coming. But if no other trades happen and Duren signs, someone has to go. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 8 Author Posted July 8 Not sure what he means here. They created the $15 million TPE when they traded Stewart for draft picks. Quote
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