NYLion Posted July 29 Posted July 29 (edited) 29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: i’d like to believe the team construction parallels hold across eras but i’m less than sure about that. it’s a little bit of a false dichotomy though. Duren and Thompson are both flawed players. Cade’s ultimate future isn’t necessarily with either of them if neither can make some strides The difference is that you can live with Ausar's offensive flaws because he has an elite skill, like 2nd best player in the league defensively elite a guy who is an impact gamechanger while with Duren you can't live with his flaws because he has no game changing skill to compensate. I wouldn't hate retaining him at a reasonable price but I honestly think the best option here is to let him play out his final RFA year under the QO which will give the Pistons the flexibility to add a significant piece in season and let him walk at the end of the season using that cap flexibility to add in a cheaper rim running center and a legit #2 option eventually. In other words, like I said before, Ausar isn't the problem the problem is Ausar+Duren and I'm keeping the guy that has an elite skill. Edited July 29 by NYLion 2 Quote
Deleterious Posted July 29 Author Posted July 29 Ausar is no different than any other NBA player, his value depends on what he makes. They should offer 4/$80 million this summer. I said it a few weeks ago, Dyson Daniels is the comp for Ausar. Daniels signed a 4/$100 million extension after his third year, but he was a much better player than Ausar after 3 years. Daniels was 2nd in DPOY voting that year while making 1st team all defense, similar to Thompson. But his stocks were 3.7 compared to Thompson at 2.9. But where he absolutely killed Thompson was on offense. 14 PPG compared to 9.9. 4.4 assists compared to 3.1. 6.8 rebounds compared to 5.7. He also took 3 3PTA'S per game and made 34% of them, compared to 0.3 attempts per game for Thompson while only making 25%. You can't pay him more than Daniels. If you want to bump it to 4/$88 to account for the cap going up, thats fine. But if he wants anything more he needs to go show me he can do something on offense next year and we'll talk next summer when he's a restricted free agent. Quote
NYLion Posted July 29 Posted July 29 There's no way Ausar is getting as little as 4 years $80m. He's going to get 4 years $100m at minimum when you take the Daniels comp into account with cap inflation, I think we just need to accept that. Finishing 2nd in DPOY voting and being arguably the biggest disruptor in the league full court is a big feather in his cap regardless of the offense he puts up. 1 Quote
Deleterious Posted July 29 Author Posted July 29 5 minutes ago, NYLion said: There's no way Ausar is getting as little as 4 years $80m. He's going to get 4 years $100m at minimum when you take the Daniels comp into account with cap inflation, I think we just need to accept that. Finishing 2nd in DPOY voting and being arguably the biggest disruptor in the league full court is a big feather in his cap regardless of the offense he puts up. You also said someone would give Duren a huge contract. The cap went up 6.5% from the time Daniels signed an extension until now. Going up to an AAV of $22 million is a 10% bump. Daniels finsihed 2nd in DPOY in his third year. Thompson only finished 3rd. Daniels was his equal on defense but better on offense. That is why Thompson should be paid less. Quote
NYLion Posted July 29 Posted July 29 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Deleterious said: You also said someone would give Duren a huge contract. The cap went up 6.5% from the time Daniels signed an extension until now. Going up to an AAV of $22 million is a 10% bump. Daniels finsihed 2nd in DPOY in his third year. Thompson only finished 3rd. Daniels was his equal on defense but better on offense. That is why Thompson should be paid less. I said teams had the cap space to sign Duren not that he'd get a max offer sheet, big difference. I did think there was a market out there for him so I guess I was wrong on that, so far. I'll bet anything that he gets more than 4 years $80m or 5 years $100m. Ausar's impact goes beyond the numbers, the Pistons are a way better team when Ausar is on the court, he has a big impact on winning. I expect that he'll get the Daniels contract if not more. I'd like to see any projection out there that predicts him getting only $20m/yr. Edited July 29 by NYLion Quote
Betrayer Posted July 29 Posted July 29 1 minute ago, NYLion said: I said teams had the cap space to sign Duren not that he'd get a max offer sheet, big difference. I did think there was a market out there for him so I guess I was wrong on that, so far. I'll bet anything that he gets more than 4 years $80m or 5 years $100m. Ausar's impact goes beyond the numbers, the Pistons are a way better team when Ausar is on the court, he has a big impact on winning. I expect that he'll get the Daniels contract if not more. I'd like to see any projection out there that predicts him getting only $20m/yr. Absolutely. Zero chance Ausar gets an offer in the low 20s and zero chance he would take that. That'd be an insult. He's going to get between 27M and 32M. 1 Quote
NYLion Posted July 29 Posted July 29 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Betrayer said: Absolutely. Zero chance Ausar gets an offer in the low 20s and zero chance he would take that. That'd be an insult. He's going to get between 27M and 32M. Yep, I was honestly being a little conservative with the Daniels numbers tbh. Ausar is the opposite of Duren for me, his impact goes well beyond the numbers while Duren's impact is far less than his numbers would suggest. I think Ausar at $30m/yr is a little rich but I could see him getting that, he's a huge part of this team. Also, I've watched enough of Ausar and Daniels to know at least IMO that Ausar is the more dynamic player. I know the numbers favor Daniels but I'd rather have Ausar long term. Edited July 29 by NYLion Quote
Deleterious Posted July 29 Author Posted July 29 If they pay $30 millipn per year to have Ausar Thompson's defender stand in the paint the entire playoffs. Well, they deserve what they get at that point. Quote
Betrayer Posted July 29 Posted July 29 31 minutes ago, Deleterious said: If they pay $30 millipn per year to have Ausar Thompson's defender stand in the paint the entire playoffs. Well, they deserve what they get at that point. If the offensive system allows this to happen, then we need a new coach if we're going to win in the playoffs. But we both know that already. Quote
Deleterious Posted July 29 Author Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Betrayer said: If the offensive system allows this to happen, then we need a new coach if we're going to win in the playoffs. But we both know that already. I used to think that before seeing how inept he was in the playoffs on offense. At some point you need to take responsibility for yourself and get a jump shot, learn to attack the space when guys lay off and don't guard you. Especially if you are going to ask for $30 million a year. Quote
Motor City Sonics Posted July 29 Posted July 29 12 hours ago, Betrayer said: Just looking at the number of changes, it may feel like a lot, but it really isn't. Assuming Duren is back, 4 of the 5 starters return. The only guys who played meaningful minutes that aren't returning are Harris, Lavert, and Stew. In each case, the players taking their minutes will be a slight upgrade in my opinion (Collins, Joe, Reed). The changes were made on the margins to bring in more shooting. They've done that and I think it makes them a marginally better team. Not the big splash everyone wanted (including Trajan, it seems), but they haven't changed the core that got them there. They simply upgraded some of the vets around them to add more guys who can hit an open three. I understand that the players the new guys have replaced might be better players, but how they work together is a different story. It really comes down to Duren. He has to be better in the postseason. The drop off from regular to post season for him was drastic. He has to dig deeper and crave being in that moment and I'm not sure he has that in him. This year will be the litmus test. If that happens again in the post season, cut and run. Quote
Betrayer Posted July 29 Posted July 29 4 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said: It really comes down to Duren. He has to be better in the postseason. The drop off from regular to post season for him was drastic. He has to dig deeper and crave being in that moment and I'm not sure he has that in him. This year will be the litmus test. If that happens again in the post season, cut and run. I hear this a lot, but I really don't think digging deep is the issue. He feasted in the regular season when there was no opposing gameplan and scored his biggest games against weak opponents. Lobs, layups, and offensive rebound put-backs are easily negated against real teams. They simply box out and keep a body on you. You don't get those easy buckets in the playoffs. Many of us saw this coming a mile away and spoke about it all season. He's a rim runner, the easiest thing to take away. The problem is that unlike most rim runners he's not a good defender. Nor does he have the ability to shoot outside of 5 feet. So, what's his playoff skill? I hear people saying, "he's only 22, he'll improve", but what will he improve? Guys don't suddenly become elite defenders and I've seen no evidence that he'll ever space the floor with his shooting. Is he going to become the first Center to be a ballhandler who takes opposing defenders off the dribble? Not a bet I'd make. He's a regular season player - an upgraded version of Drummond. I truly wish they'd just give him what he wants and do the Sign and Trade, but you have to find another team willing to pay him the max and I doubt there are many out there. Quote
Betrayer Posted July 29 Posted July 29 11 hours ago, Deleterious said: I used to think that before seeing how inept he was in the playoffs on offense. At some point you need to take responsibility for yourself and get a jump shot, learn to attack the space when guys lay off and don't guard you. Especially if you are going to ask for $30 million a year. At 23 with an injury that basically cost him a season of development, I'm willing to bet on the best perimeter defender in the league who also happens to be a top 1% athlete with high IQ and an insane work ethic. We both know that this coaching staff has done him no favors when it comes to putting him in the right place offensively. They'd rather sit him in crunch time for Caris Lavert even though despite his offensive struggles all the numbers show that the team is better on offense when Ausar is on the court. 2 Quote
buddha Posted August 11 Posted August 11 sam did the pistons on gametheory today. gave us a C for the offseason. this was the summer to get a #2 for cade and we whiffed. duren/cade/ausar core doesnt get you a championship. collins a downgrade on tobias. joe in the mle was a mistake (because of the mle, not the trade for joe). doesnt understand the heurter signing. team got worse. talked about ryan rollins being a trade target. duren for turner + rollins? Quote
Betrayer Posted August 11 Posted August 11 27 minutes ago, buddha said: collins a downgrade on tobias. First, anyone who calls Collins a downgrade hasn't been watching Tobias clang threes or just get scared of shooting and dribble into a worse shot. Collins is a better play finisher from three and in the paint, and it's not close. He's not a creator for others, but neither was Tobias. The only thing Tobias is better at is post self creation, which is the shot every defense wants you to take. I'm quite happy with those attempts becoming Robinson/Collins/Joe three point attempts instead. I'm not going argue with the C grade much, though I'd say it was a C+ because they got better (marginally) by adding more shooting. Something everyone has been screaming for them to do for years. Replacing Tobias with Collins and LaVert with Joe. Those are clear upgrades. I'd argue that replacing Stew's minutes with Reed will be an upgrade as well (and the analytics back that up). They didn't add a #2, but I'm not sure what else you do when the players you purse say "no" and the GM's you want to trade with say "no". You acquire tradeable contracts that are marginal improvements and keep yourself flexible to try again down the road rather than mortgaging your future on a Blake Griffin trade. 1 Quote
buddha Posted August 11 Posted August 11 3 hours ago, Betrayer said: First, anyone who calls Collins a downgrade hasn't been watching Tobias clang threes or just get scared of shooting and dribble into a worse shot. Collins is a better play finisher from three and in the paint, and it's not close. He's not a creator for others, but neither was Tobias. The only thing Tobias is better at is post self creation, which is the shot every defense wants you to take. I'm quite happy with those attempts becoming Robinson/Collins/Joe three point attempts instead. I'm not going argue with the C grade much, though I'd say it was a C+ because they got better (marginally) by adding more shooting. Something everyone has been screaming for them to do for years. Replacing Tobias with Collins and LaVert with Joe. Those are clear upgrades. I'd argue that replacing Stew's minutes with Reed will be an upgrade as well (and the analytics back that up). They didn't add a #2, but I'm not sure what else you do when the players you purse say "no" and the GM's you want to trade with say "no". You acquire tradeable contracts that are marginal improvements and keep yourself flexible to try again down the road rather than mortgaging your future on a Blake Griffin trade. i think they got "different," whether that's better or worse is yet to be seen. they'll be a little better on offense because they have more shooting, but they gave up defense and toughness to get it. and i'm not sure the spacing will be as big of a panacea as people think when ausar and duren are out there. and i'm not sure they're done. they have some contracts that can be moved at the deadline to improve. i think this team will be different in 2027 than it looks in 2026. and you get a "blake griffin" type trade when you mortgage your future for a guy to play next to ANDRE DRUMMOND. sending out draft picks for a star to play next to cade cunningham is a much different scenario. finally, in the background of all of this is the real issue (which was brought up by sam), are you really going to tie yourself to ausar/duren as your core? if you do, it will be real difficult to win a title or change direction once their contracts hit. i agree that is the real big issue, the other stuff is just on the margins. i think trajan knows this too, which is why he isnt budging on duren and - if you believe the rumors - is open to shorter term deals. 1 Quote
Betrayer Posted August 12 Posted August 12 20 hours ago, buddha said: i think they got "different," whether that's better or worse is yet to be seen. they'll be a little better on offense because they have more shooting, but they gave up defense and toughness to get it. and i'm not sure the spacing will be as big of a panacea as people think when ausar and duren are out there. and i'm not sure they're done. they have some contracts that can be moved at the deadline to improve. i think this team will be different in 2027 than it looks in 2026. and you get a "blake griffin" type trade when you mortgage your future for a guy to play next to ANDRE DRUMMOND. sending out draft picks for a star to play next to cade cunningham is a much different scenario. finally, in the background of all of this is the real issue (which was brought up by sam), are you really going to tie yourself to ausar/duren as your core? if you do, it will be real difficult to win a title or change direction once their contracts hit. i agree that is the real big issue, the other stuff is just on the margins. i think trajan knows this too, which is why he isnt budging on duren and - if you believe the rumors - is open to shorter term deals. Sure, it's all on paper until they hit the floor in October. That's why we're here, to shed light on the uncertainty of the offseason 😄 I'm not buying that they gave up "defense and toughness". Toughness, sure, but that might be a positive since we don't have to deal suspensions and flagrant fouls. Defense, not so much. Tobias and Collins are both poor, but I'd give the edge to Collins with his better shot blocking and rebounding. Stew had some amazing rim protection moments, but the facts are that Reed was better than him last year in most categories. This is a disruption defense and that's Reed specialty. He's also a better rebounder. So did they lose defense? I'm not so sure. As for spacing, it's just dooming to pretend that adding Joe and Collins won't make your spacing better than Tobias and Lavert. Did you watch the Cleveland series? Tobias shot 29% from three in the playoffs. He was actively passing up wide open threes to dribble into the crowd. And Joe is quite literally one off the best shooters in the NBA. When Duncan's not on the court you have another lights out shooter, which is something they haven't had in...ever. The Blake trade wasn't just bad because of Drummond. I wouldn't want that trade with Cade either. Smart teams don't get impatient and get taken advantage of like that. All that said, I agree that the Duren/Ausar team up isn't ideal (at their current skill levels), but I don't think it's as extreme of an issue as people make it out to be. Just having Tobias be able to hit a three would've changed the dynamic drastically in the playoffs. Of course, having a coach that understands basic offense would help too, because you don't actually have to put Ausar in the corner. I want a S&T as bad as you, but it's not happening. They aren't giving up on a 22 yr old All-Star/All-NBA, no matter how hollow we think his accolades are and moving Ausar would be insane. Quote
buddha Posted Friday at 12:25 PM Posted Friday at 12:25 PM https://www.detroitbadboys.com/detroit-pistons-analysis/50935/three-jalen-duren-sign-and-trade-possibilities i would do any of these three. Quote
Betrayer Posted Saturday at 05:44 AM Posted Saturday at 05:44 AM 17 hours ago, buddha said: https://www.detroitbadboys.com/detroit-pistons-analysis/50935/three-jalen-duren-sign-and-trade-possibilities i would do any of these three. 2 and 3 don't feel realistic, but sure, I'd do those as well. My opinion is skewed though, because I'd even do the Sabonis +picks trade that was rumored. 1 Quote
buddha Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM Posted Saturday at 04:05 PM 10 hours ago, Betrayer said: 2 and 3 don't feel realistic, but sure, I'd do those as well. My opinion is skewed though, because I'd even do the Sabonis +picks trade that was rumored. i'd do the sabonis deal just to prevent them from giving duren 5 years. 2 Quote
Deleterious Posted 3 hours ago Author Posted 3 hours ago We knew 6 months ago Watson was leaving Denver. Not sure I had Cleveland as his destination though. Fantastic get for them. The 1st rounder being unprotected is a bit concerning, but worth the risk IMO. A guy who plays really good defense and shoots 40% from three for $22 million per year? Frustrating. Quote
NYLion Posted 54 minutes ago Posted 54 minutes ago This seems like exactly the type of trade Langdon should have been in on and seems like a missed opportunity while a rival gets better. It's getting harder and harder to envision the Pistons as a top 4 seed nevermind top seed again and it's not out of the realm of possibilities that they drop to a play-in. The east is just too good this season and the Pistons don't really seem to have a direction. Quote
Deleterious Posted 5 minutes ago Author Posted 5 minutes ago The sign and trade for Watson hard caps Cleveland at the 1st apron. So $28.4 million is the most they can offer Harden this season. Quote
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