Rational Actor Model might cost some people in policy making world their jobs. The PRC's reasoning for looking and turning inward and going Stalinist/Soviet is that Xi thinks it is the only way he can ensure the survival of his regime.
Been studying various war games and modeling and simulation on a cross straits war. The PRC has invested in some things that are essential to their planning. They have a large amphibious force, a large airmobile/airborne force to land on Taiwan. They have a large fleet to protect the landings and a large ballistic missile force designed to rain destruction on Guam, Taiwan, Okinawa, the northern Phillippines and perhaps if they are accurate enough a couple US carrier battle groups. Most US run war games taking all these things into account predict US/allied wins although with heavy casualties. Particularly if a US carrier is hit and sinks.
What the PRC does not have is a military tradition. Their last war was 1979 in northern Vietnam. They will have a hell of a time trying to do things as complex as amphibious and airborne landings. Taiwan unfortunately has never actually fought a war either. The good news is that the US has special forces on the ground along with Australian special forces. The alliance against the PRC will be robust with Japan, South Korea, Phillippines, Vietnam and others contributing to the fight. Every time the US intercepts a ballistic missile with supposed hypersonic warheads in Ukraine an angel gets its wings (i.e., demonstrates to China that their plan is no sure thing).
Anyway... if you think the US and allies are going to lose...nah. If you think it will be bloodless...nah too. Is this in China's interest, well, they want to break out of the first island chain to be a proper superpower. The Kaiser's Germany wanted to break out into the Atlantic to be one too...didn't work out because Imperial Germany didn't have a dominant fleet nor did it have a naval tradition. Even if their ships were slightly better than the British fleet's.