Motown Bombers

Was that the real Tim Kaine on SNL?

Ann Seltzer is part of the deep state.

What are the odds Trump attacks Ann Selzer in a rally tomorrow?

No there isn’t since 538 is off and uses junk polls. I think Atlas was the pollster who did a poll of Pennsylvania and didn’t include Philadelphia.

Her polls before this were showing Harris over performing. We also have polls showing Harris over performing in Nebraska and Kansas. It wasn’t that long ago that democrats won Iowa.

I wonder if this shift in the plains states in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas is because of Trump’s calls to deport immigrants? These states rely on immigrants for their farms.

But Seltzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling. She’s gotten every election right.

I thought a good poll would be Trump +3. I didn’t expect Harris +3.

Absolutely stunning. If this is accurate, which Seltzer is one of the best polls there is, we are looking at a landslide.

I mean, it would be impossible to bring it closer than 2018 since Rick Scott won by 0.1%. Trump lost Michigan by the same margin Biden lost Florida, Republicans were blown out in 2022, and then they are suddenly going to win Michigan? There are multiple reasons to be bullish on Florida. 1) Florida has historically been a swing state. Trump's margins have been +1 and +3. This isn't Idaho. 2) Abortion and marijuana are on the ballot. Both issues to draw out Dems. 3) Harris has room to grow with Hispanics. Had Biden done the same as Hillary with Hispanics, he wins. Trump gave us a huge gift by angering and motivating two large Latino groups in Florida with Puerto Ricans and Hattians. 4) Democrats have candidates in every single house district to boost turnout statewide. 5) Early voting in other states shows gains for Harris with older voters. This would be huge if it happens in Florida. 6) DMP is a strong candidate, and Rick Scott is weak. He's never won an election by more than 1%.

Dems are sending Bill Clinton to Cleveland on Monday. He's in Florida this weekend, Ohio Monday, looks like they are testing the waters.

He was almost spot on in 2022 when people were calling for a red wave.

I think we forget the special election in Ohio in a white working class district where the Democrat almost defeated an established Republican. If Harris can clawback some white working class along with high turnout in the Metros, she has a shot.

I wouldn’t worry about New Hampshire. Even Hillary carried it. An internal memo leaked by Dems showed they were confident in New Hampshire.

Trump is having his most unhinged rally yet.

This is not good for Trump at all.