You're seeing the difference between 2016 and 2024. Trump has purged any voice of reason from his campaign. I remember in 2016 Trump extending an olive branch to Bernie supporters by leaning into the NAFTA attacks and the DNC being rigged.
It's not all Republicans leaving California for Texas. A lot of Democrats from California are moving to Texas particularly Austin. Austin is becoming a new San Francisco.
Biden got it down to R+6. It's demographics are nearly identical to California which is nearly D+30. The issues are white are way more conservative in Texas than California and even Hispanics are more conservative. The suburbs in Texas are starting to blue with more college educated whites and Hispanics continue to move to the state. Voter suppression also works in Texas. Had minorities voted at the same rate as whites in Texas, it would be blue. It's going to be a tough nut to crack. In some ways it reminds me of Minnesota. Minnesota always seems to be there for the taking for Republicans but it always finishes in the high single digits.
Don't sleep on Alaska. Biden won't win it this election, but every election since 2000 it has gotten bluer. They elected a Democrat to their at-large congressional district who is popular. They have the most moderate Republican in the senate. It's not worth going up there for 3 electoral votes but I think it's a state that Dems should make a play for the non Murkowski senate seat.
I will say, Utah is an interesting state. The Salt Lake City area continues to grow and turn blue. I could see Utah eventually becoming Colorado but I don't think that is close right now.
I watched some analysis and film on Wilson and have come to the conclusion he was never really a good QB. He never actually ran an offense. The whole let Russ cook was basically him running around post snap and waiting for someone to pop open. He never makes pre snap reads or changes into a different play. He never throws over the middle of the field. He's basically Justin Fields but just more successful. Now that he's older, he can't cook like he used to. When I look at what Carroll was able to do with Wilson and Geno Smith, he was such an underrated coach.
That nutcase could help Biden. I think North Carolina is winnable. I honestly expected North Carolina to go blue before Georgia.
I'm also not throwing the towel on Florida either.