It is very tempting to look at the bad start in '21 and presume it won't be repeated. Another out-of-the norm event from last year was the number of major arm surgeries required (Faedo in the minors, Turnball, Rogers at C, and Boyd). I'd probably anticipate one SP going down this year and Faedo and Turnball will not contribute much this year. I tend to think that the TJ surgeries that will meaningfully reduce the impact of key arms, and thus offset the gains expected to be realized by not starting so poorly this year. This is a 77 win team as things stand now.
We have a problem at SP and SS. To make the most of the pitching we do have, I would rate the SS decision to be the most important decision, then the pitching need, and then finally the catcher position. I am most certainly not counting on any untested minor league guy to fill the bill at short.