HeyAbbott

6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

I hope Harris is shopping Lange. Makes sense to move him now if you can get a potential core position player.

Agree with this. Given the seeming year to year variability in relievers, trading them forvposition players seems to make sense.

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Only reacting to what is being speculated.  It’s the best we can do at this point until more moves take place.  Harris is being forced to navigate this offseason with his hands tied behind his back, so we need to be realistic about our expectations.

 The front office decided to not cut Miggy and throw away a roster slot in doing so. It is crystal clear what kind of season this is going to be. Factor in that both E Rod and Baez will opt out next year, and the only thing left for the year is to have a season long audition to sort out the contenders from the pretenders.. I still expect a siging or trade to at least make 2023 a 70 win season.

20 hours ago, Toddwert said:

https://pimiso.com/detroit-tigers-spencer-torkelson-girlfriend-makenna-mattei-age-gap-dating-life

 

I wouldnt kick Spencers lady out of bed....

She gets an animal cracker exemption.

I saw a picture of Robert Fick's wife a few years back and she was absolutely stunning.

Which Tigers have hot wives and/or girlfriends these days?

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

100%. I understand that we are all fans and it isn't our money so, why should we care?

 

 

All resources are finite. A waste of resources ( such as the signing Jordan Zimmerman back in the day), no matter who is wasting them, impacts the ability of a team to move forward on other choices later. I can be worth 3 billion dollars, but not all of that is in cash, and given contractual outflows I have, cash availability can be more restrictive than it appears.

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

If mediocre is 1.1 WAR, and then Jeimer is on balance better than mediocre, not sub-mediocre, because his recent three-year average is worth better than 1.1 WAR over year, plus he is projected to be better than 1.1 WAR by all available measures so far, and that makes sense to me.

All that aside, I would agree that 2022 was sub-mediocre by any definition.

For his seven years Jemier should be at 7.7 WAR , but I think the variability and 2022 are telling. I respectfully agree to disagree with you.

This entire discussion has been informative in that it has provided insight into how members of the board view risk versus reward. It has been like a SWOT analysis conducted in a graduate level management class. Some of us seem to think the strengths of keeping Jemier outweighed the weaknesses. Some of us don't. Some of us seem to think that the opportunities of keeping Jemier outweigh the threats. Some of us don't. What this discussion actually reveals is how each of us answer the question, "What is a reasonable amount calculated risk to assume?"

11 hours ago, chasfh said:

Depends on how you define mediocre. How would you define it?

Mediocre is 1.1 WAR per year as calculated by baseball-reference. If one has an entire active roster of 1.1 WAR on average over an active roster, if one plugs that in the last iteration of Baseball- Reference's WAR formula, an average WAR of that level on an active team roster should produce an 81 win team.

Over 7 seasons, Jemier, has a 7.5 WAR. In 2018 he had a 1.8 WAR, then in 2019 he collapsed to .2 WAR. I would throw out 2020 in any player evaluation due to season length. In  2021 Jemier posts a 4.1 WAR, then in 2022 he posts .8 WAR. His WAR is one good year followed by one poor year. Of his total career, 54 % of that value comes from his 2021 season. There is a great deal of risk to Jemier's production as shown by his high season to season variabilty, with one year being very strong, and the following year being poor.

I have waffled on Jemier over the last 3 months because the eye test shows that there have been moments of great promise. When I look at his total output, coupled with his wide variabilty in production from year to year, I am not sad to see him gone.

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Whatever the Tigers offered him—let's pretend for this post that it was half of his projected arb—is fair market value only if they believe he is going to be worth only half a win above replacement in 2023. And if that's the case, were the Tigers perfectly fine with running a half-a-win player out there all year, just because the price was right? is that all they want out of third base? I have my doubts about that.

I think that, for whatever reason, they felt they just needed to be rid of Candelario altogether, regardless of what his projected production was going to be. That suggests to me that the decision was about something other than his expected performance.

Candelario is a sub mediocre player. That's all one needs to know. That's my 2 cents.

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

10 million for pre-injury Boyd is reasonable.  It all depends on whether he can stay healthy.  I am generally wary about pitchers and injuries.  

This seems to be a calculated risk to me. As for pitchers and injuries, what is the percentage of pitchers injured requiring surgery each year? I would guess 30 to 35%, or roughly one out of every three.

6 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I can see honoring him for the last couple years of his career, but Cabrera has been replacement level for SIX years.  Enough is enough.  Cabrera was the greatest Tigers hitter I have seen in my lifetime and there are a lot of great memories.  The last six years do not enhance that in any way.  If anything, they take away from the memories.  

Agree 100 times over. We have had a six year long farewell tour. I will never mention his name again , it would be childish and snarky to use the abbreviation HWSNBN ("He who shall not be named."), so from here on out I am done discussing him.

Unlike many here, this raises questions in my mind about this organization's commitment to excellence. It seems to me a truly professional Ball team would at least try some other guy rather than sticking with a sub replacement player. At least the Tigers will recoup some dollars on this leg of HWSNBN's farewell tour.

I guess I am childish and snarky after all.

Well, it looks like Mike Clevinger signs with the White Sox. I don't think it is earth shattering, but kind of a so so deal.

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Reyes, the Castros, even Candy earned their non-tenders through performance.

If they weren't mediocre (or in the case of Candy, unreliable), hard not to imagine them being tendered a contract.

I am a broken record on this but, every player let go by Harris had less production that what would be required to produce an average MLB team. I mourn them not. On the position side, there are only 3 players as of this date that I would label as average MLB players. I think that there are some that are currently on the 40 man roster (i.e., the additions) that will be average MLB players at some point, such as P Meadows, Lupicus, and Perez.

As things stand today, we need a starting 3B, one starting OF, a starting 1B, one C, a reliable DH, and one, possibly 2 SP's, and Miggy needs to be off this team. That's a minimum of six to seven guys. Maybe the new coaching can fix at least one or 2 hitters. TORK!, if we are honest, needs 150 to 200 ABS in Toledo before he is ready.

The pitching candidates might come internally from Turnbull etc., but the rest won't. I expect the roster to turn and shimmy more than a flea infested Bourbon street stripper.

The organization was a bombed out mess when Harris arrived. I am going to give Harris some time before I draw conclusions. 33 games into the '24 season seems the right time to do that.

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I believe one key problem with how the Tigers would identify talent in the past is that they focused on toolsy guys who were athletes first, rather than guys with well-established baseball skills. You can tell because of how often Al’s press releases would describe players they drafted, traded for, or signed as being “athletes”. They seemed to be laboring under the notion that they could obtain the best athletes and then train them to become great baseball players. I’m not sure I can come up with even a single example of that approach succeeding.

I agree with this. Also look at their pitching preferences. There is a tendency to obtain  pitchers that have excellent velocity with the idea that they can be taught command and control. As I view it from memory, there are 2 franchises in the AL central, Minnesota and Cleveland, that place a higher value on command and control. Both of them seem to do a better job of having good pitching staffs.

Finally, I don't think Scott Harris is anybody's fool and has no desire to play one. I don't think you think this way. I am just tossing it in to clarify my view of Scott Harris.

Harris inherited a very poorly constructed team. I think it's 2025 before we know what we have in him. Three full years on the field.

Scott Harris does not strike me as the lapdog type.

The Tigers, like any other organization, need to identify, attract, obtain, train, and retain solid personnel. They carry a very poor record at identifying and training personnel as the last 40 years testify to.  Because they cannot identify quality players, even when they have spent in the past, they have had woefully horrible rosters.

The organization has been incredibly bad at developing the meager talent they have been able to obtain. For a sustained run as a mediocre team (81 wins) , an MLB team has to be able to add 3 position players every year to its roster to stay mediocre, say nothing of improve. The number of actual MLB position players that the farm system has produced since the early 1980's is horrid.

There has been a lot of bad spending decisions in the MLB over the last 40 years as well.

As I see things, Harris has made an attempt to address the glaring ineptitude that has been the Detroit Tigers. Let's see what happens. Let's see what happens on his hold 'em or fold 'em decisions. That will tell us a lot. I still think there will be some free agent siginings of note. But at least let's give the guy some time.

4 hours ago, buddha said:

the problem was recently removed from the organization.  hopefully the new person hired has a solution.

anything we get from avila's drafts is a bonus because i dont expect any of them to be all stars, much less serious contributors.

except greene, he seems like the real deal.  im having serious doubts about tork! but his pre draft status makes me think he must be fixable.

I think Jung might be a sample size issue. Tork! I am extremely worried about.

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We got an anti-Harris skeptic here. We need the balance. 

The difference in opinion makes for a more fun time.

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

curious they would bother puttting Parker on the 40 if he can't hit the FB. Have to assume they think they can shorten him to the ball enough to change that. Good luck if that's the case.

Let's see what the score says:

Tork! can't hit the FB.

Parker can't hit the FB.

Jace Jung can't hit the FB.

Lupicus can't hit the FB?

What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on here?

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

How much of a risk is it?     0.6 WAR ?   

I think just about anybody with a sub .320 OBP is probably going to get moved out of here over the next 2-3 years and that includes Tork & Greene if they don't develop.   Harris isn't going to hang onto people because he likes them.  The 2024 roster might have  5 or 6 guys from the 2022 team.     Fine with me.    Better to take risks than to stick with what you know doesn't work. 

I can understand while some might want to keep Candy, assuming he significantly improves in '23. The risk one has with Candy if he significantly bests '22 numbers is that the club misses out on the benefits of such improvement.. That's very, very low. Non-tendering him was in my view of things a reasonable calculated risk and a decision I won't second guess.

On the final active roster in '22 there were 3 position players with enough WAR ( offensive and defensive combined using Baseball Reference numbers) to qualify as average MLB position players. Hasse, Baez, and Greene made the cut. There was at least one (i.e., Carpenter) that might have also. The rest did not. I think our biggest danger might be taking too little risk by overvaluing the current position players we have in the organization.

19 minutes ago, buddha said:

the idea that chris illitch somehow told harris to let candy go to save a few million is silly, imo.

if anything, the analytics people had candy worth X amount of dollars and it wasnt his arb number and he wasnt willing to accept a contract for that amount so he left.

a month ago we all said how candy sucks and there should be other alternatives to try.  now were pining away for him and want to give him $7 million just to spite an owner we think is cheap?  illitch bashing for candy leaving is just anti ownership boogeyman wishcasting.  

This is where my part of my head is at. On the basis of calculated risk, I don't see it as an outrageous action to cut Candy. What we are experiencing here is the angst that comes with taking a risk.

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Candy is still one of the best short term 3B options out there; from Freep

Before cutting ties with Candelario, the Tigers attempted to bring him back at a cheaper rate. It’s unclear if those negotiations will continue,

Candelario, according to Baseball reference, was less than a 1 WAR player last year. His OPS+ in '22 declined from '21 and both were under league average , although in '21 it was close. I tend to think that it is not unreasonable to assume that Candelario will be less than a 1 WAR player in '23.

In my mind, this is a calculated risk that someone of equal to better than Jemier can be found . I am somewhat vexed that they supposedly from an earlier post tried offering him less money.

I think it is highly understandable for a degree of suspicion to be cast on the decision to move on from Candy. There is risk  regardless of whether he was kept or not. Whether it is riskier to keep or move on from Candy it debateable.

I am concerned that both Tork and Jung may be busts. The anxiety I have over Jung is probably irrational.

On a totally different subject, how confident are we that TORK! gets fixed (as a player)this year? my confidence level is roughly 37%. My concern is that he seemed to be having way too many problems hitting fast balls down the middle based upon what I remember seeing at the close of last year.

Maybe I am simply being nervous Norman, on the other hand, the brain trust moves by the Tigers indicates there is some concern there as well.

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Well, now this is ridiculous.  We haven't had a Tiger game thread to throw our anguish around in months.  The days are getting shorter.  The weather is getting colder.  Our families and friends are sick of the extra exposure to us that we would normally be devoting to the Tigers during the regular season.  Time to relax?  Balderdash.  Now is the time of our discontent.

Thanks for this reply. It immediately brought to mind the pamphlet "Common Sense" by Thomas Paine.

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

All he’s done is clear some spots and pick up a few lottery tickets.  The cuts were almost administrative—they were very obvious.  Not excited about any of the minor league acquisitions he’s made.

I agree he is just getting started, but I can’t get excited or give him credit for anything yet—moving forward is where things should get interesting.

This is the point. I am pleased that decisions that should have been made, in some cases, years ago, are finally being made. The fastest way to make a mess of any organization is to delay or deny  making obvious decisions swiftly.The Tigers have raised delaying obvious decisions to an art form. Scott Harris is changing that and will change organizational culture for the better if this continues.  He is going to churn the utility grade players like they are butter, and very few (maybe only one?) will be on the roster by opening day.

There are plenty of Tiger fans and likely members of the Tigers organization proper that have been conditioned to accept players like the Castros to be average to better than average ball players, which they obviously are not. Certain notions such as these must be dispelled and exiled from Tigers Nation so that the real work of fixing this franchise can happen.