Screwball

Adding a day later. Everyone expects a 25bp cut. They are going to cut with the bubbles of all bubbles, otherwise known as our stock market, within a couple percent of all time highs. As pointed out in the financial media, this has happened a couple of times before, and for the next year the market went up and you made money. Let's jump on board, right? I guess that depends on who "you" is. What happens next will be interesting. I'm pretty happy right now. My retirement accounts went to cash yesterday. We will see what to do next. As the old saying goes; they don't ring a bell at the top. I don't know how much more they can squeeze out of this. Ding, ding, ding.

This is the event. What happens after is what matters. The dual mandates of the Fed are at odds with each other. They have no escape, other than more BS Fedspeak. Jobs vs. inflation. Can't fix both at the same time. What helps one ****s the other. To combat the problem, they need to raise and lower rates at the same time. They can't.

I think the 25 is baked in too They all want cheap money.

Just a report from the ground in farm county not far from Michigan. We haven't had rain since Moby **** was a minnow, and I'm sure lots will get rotted on the vine and will vever find its way to Toledo and southern Michigan. On top of everything else.

I don't doubt that one bit. Funny story, ironic too... 2018 I went to Oregon and spent a week with my oldest boy who lived in a town called Scappoose, maybe a half hour or so North of Portland. We are originally from NW Ohio (no Buckeye fans) and never been to the Great Northwest. It was kind of a bucket list thing for me. 10 of us. We went all over the place. Great trip. We landed Sunday afternoon. Soon as we got settled in at my sons house he took me downtown. About 5 minutes away. I see a green cross. What is this? They were everywhere. Too funny. I have never seen anything like a real life pot store. They let me take pictures, it was so cool. So once the euphoria wore off (remember, I'm from Ohio and the black market is tough and expensive), the "budtender" gave me a menu, for lack of a better word. So....I like this one, how much? That would be 170. What? I'm used to paying 300 for an OZ here in Cornhole where it isn't legal. I'm thinking that's the deal of the century but I'm only here for a week. Luckily, my son figures out I am confused. Dad - that's for a pre-roll joint. REALLY? Yea. A buck 70 for a pre-roll!!! The next thing I said was "how many ya got?" It was great to see the that part of the country. Me and my girlfriend spent a couple of days in Portland. We bought a deal to ride the busses all over town. That was a ball. Sure wouldn't want to drive.

I agree. I think it would save them money. Like it said in the tweet, they spend a bunch of money for the quarterly report. It cost money on all sides. How many Wall Street analysis cover the stock (for big companies quite a few). The most important thing IMO, as far as investors go, was this part, which I believe to be true; The bedrock of how a market and investing should work.

Long thread discussing this. Pros vs. Cons.

Reminds me of a funny story. The dive bar I go to in has a bunch of dedicated music people, many are musicians and played in bands. They are primarily classic rock to some hair band stuff. Hardly any country. From time to time people drift in and play some country stuff (we are in the sticks) but they don't mind. But there is one guy...He is in love with one of the bartenders so he comes at least once a week. He's around 75ish, she's about 60. Never gonna happen. Giggle. He plays these awful sappy country songs - about 7 - over and over and over. We counted one day, 7 songs, 3 played two times, another 3. Their jukebox can be accessed via app on our phones. You can play a song from across town if you want. We decided that once we heard one song twice - it was game over. It cost extra, but you can fast pass it to the top. Between the two of us fast passing his stuff with our Santana, Molley Hatchet, Gun's & Roses to start (message sent - he's looking at the queue on is phone as are we) - and we follow with Iron Butterfly In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida long version and then Frampton Do you Feel Like We Do. That's over a half hour. Not a happy camper, left with songs in the queue. The next week as we understand it, he came early, punished those people and went out the door when me and the other guy came in. We think he's on to us. Giggle. I guess he's filthy rich, big time electrician and farmer. He can probably break us, but we won round one. The one bartender was pissed because he gives her 20 bucks. Speaking of coffee. I had a picture of both, but I lost one. This one is from a little grocery store in NW Ohio in a town of maybe 7k people. I'm about 20 minutes away in another little burg of 18k and you can buy the exact same thing for $15.99 or $12.99 with a Kroger card. Unreal. WTF?

The ORCL thing kinda reminds me of the Enron (ticker ENE) and Worldcom, mark-to-market accounting, circa 2000 thing. Part of the dot-com bubble even though ENE was an energy company for the most part (IIRR, they got into internet too). Part of the theme; what's not to like about printing future (years) unrealized profits to the current bottom line. ORCL just played those cards. The stock goes ape **** nuts (in this case ~35% in a day). WTF? If I held any of it, I would have pulled the rip cord that day. There is an old saying; they don't ring a bell at the top. This AI thing will prove to be a spectacular ****-up. While investors love the thought of all these new data centers and all the money to be made... Reality will take over. The insiders and the early will get rich, once it blows up, the losses will be passed down to our 401ks - as it always is. AI data centers need a bunch of energy, water too. It will take years to build what they need. It will never happen. The push is sold as a great thing for us as a people, making our lives better and easier, but behind the scenes it's all about replacing our jobs. NO! Tell me it ain't so. It is so. I just spent the last 40 years watching it develop and happen. Technology is a great and wonderful thing, it can also be a real bitch. Two screws are three jobs. Robots, machines, and AI don't take breaks, vacations, call in sick, get pregnant, lip off, smoke, or need an HR department. If you can be replaced, you will be. And to make it even better, as the company announces thousands got laid off because of this, the stock price rockets another 5 percent higher. They get the gold mine, we get the shaft. Hat tip Jerry Reed.

It doesn't matter. None of these worthless pukes (The Fed or .gov) have a clue what the **** they are doing anyway (to include both fiscal and monetary side). Or, they are just doing what their owners tell them to do. 37 trillion in debt, which costs around 800 billion annually (going up) in interest (wonder what that would pay for? more war, probably) gets us the largest stock market bubble in history and record breaking homeless and starvation. Only in America. Thanks you bunch of clueless assholes.

I honestly don't know what to think about all these employment revisions. I haven't believed the numbers for a long time (and not alone). But given what I do read, I don't think they are good, and the economy is in good shape. There is probably enough in these numbers for the Fed to justify a cut (how much????) since it's one of their mandates. On the other hand, there is the stable price part of the deal. What's that exactly? Cutting rates with the market at, or near, all time highs and under reported and poorly measured CPI numbers that contain no good news. Only to go up. But they have cut rates in environments like this before. I think they will next week. It will be fun to watch the tape that day to see if Blue Horseshoe knows anything early. 🙂 I also agree it will be like throwing gas on the fire. I've been playing the bond market for the last few years but what I see with the indexes is off the charts wild. Today - ORCL! WTF and that ain't a ticker symbol. I think Jeff Skilling would be proud. Wait till this Hindenburg pops.

Most of our major reports are piss poor ways to report the state of the economy. There are many faults with them all. CPI for example, and what they call "owners equivalent rent" and how it is weighted as far as the "headline" number. This holds true for all these reports - not counting the revisions. Giggle. This is what we, the people via the news, and retail investors get. The pigmen of Wall Street are not fooled. Remember, a mid level Wall Street bankster makes more money than the CEO of the company you work for, and by a lot. That's why he's there. He knows more about your company/industry/sector than the people running the company. The rest of it is theater. I'm not so sure Orange Hitler isn't getting setup to take the blame for the biggest economic meltdown since the Great depression of 1929. It's a dirty job but someone has to do it. He don't give a **** - he's a showman. They all are. We should have listened to George Carlin circa 1991. They don't give a **** about you.

Yea, I'm sure they do. That's some funny stuff right there. Inflation is created by printing money - and finding other ways to create more - aka credit (see M2). The bigger the pie, the bigger the piece. Since they are the swine banksters, they get it first. Cha-ching. They don't lose, they run the world. And when they **** it up they get bailed out. And will again.

There are no ethics. You lie or you die. So I guess your right. You work for some slime POS ladder climbing dickwad, not the corporation you were thrilled to to get a job with. He knows all the other dickwads.

I thought those guys were a hoot. One, two or however many.

cheaper maybe, but quality, maybe not. Stems and seeds and things you don't need. Giggle. I haven't kept track, kind of wish I would have but never thought about it, after a few years of M squared pot Mecca, I can't say I have ever found even one lonely little seed. If I had, I would try to get the little guy back on life support. Never know what might happen. From the wayback machine; we caught the back seat of a car on fire one night because a seed popped (using a corncob pipe) and landed in the seat and we didn't know it. It was hot.

A view from afar. I live an hour and 15 minutes from the pot Mecca in Monroe. I've been to probably 10 dispensaries around there. Always love going through the parking lots looking at how many Ohio plates we could see. Almost all of them. Even from my county, but didn't see anyone I knew. I'm retired so I bootleg stuff back here for something to do. 🙂 I'm really impressed with the service and the knowledge of the "budtenders." I have a favorite place and the service is always good. Never had a bad experience. If only some of our other retail places could replicate that. Maybe $ has something to do with it. Don't know. I watched the West coast pot stuff and was in Oregon back in 2018 and it was like a candy store compared to around here when it was still illegal. The Netflix documentary did a great job with Murder Mountain. Things change. I've read there are Michigan pot companies folding up because it's too saturated and unprofitable. Same as it happened out West. If, and this is Ohio we are talking about, they ever get their **** together, will help run the border towns like Monroe out of business. We are rec now, but the prices are way too high. For example, an oz of 28% THC weed around here is around $240 where in M squared (Monroe, Michigan) it's $100. Tax not included.

Yes, good point, I forgot about that. Given the last PPI it might not be good.

I'm a day behind. The holiday on Monday must have shifted the ADP report to today. Jobless claims are also today (Thursday) like they always are. Jobless clams from the BLS

The ADP report was today. There is the weekly Dept. of Labor jobless claims report tomorrow at 8:30 am. Then Friday at 8:30 am will be the monthly non-farm payroll report by the BLS. Powell already admitted the labor market was weak and a rate cut is not off the table when they met a few weeks ago in Jackson Hole. The next Fed meeting is Sept. 17. If these job reports are weak, which I expect them to be, Powell and the FOMC will lower rates due to the job market. This is the opening and excuse to do so. It will be great and the market will soar once again. Seems like insanity to me lowering rates when the markets are close to all time highs, but they have done it before; I guess the good news is it will be cheaper to pay the interest on the 37 trillion dollar debt.

The word culture took me back many years, a blast from the past you might say. Years ago I was involved in a "skunk works" project for a multi-national corporation who supplied the automotive business. The part of the process we (my department) did was shown to be the smallest hole in the hourglass of time to market. They put about 8 of us in a room for 2 years to reinvent the mousetrap. It was, at the time, a "six sigma" project theme. This was an industry in and of itself in many companies at that time. The entire goal was to save time from conception to the shipping dock. There was a lead for this project, a young clean cut handsome guy who was going places. But the project was under my immediate boss. He was a **** of dicks. Anyway, we spent months interviewing people all over the company trying find out what they need, want, and would love to have. It was really a lot of fun. It was also, at the end of the day, show us where the problems are, and how to fix them. Our department was unique do the the amount of data we needed to manufacture into the product - correctly - liability laws and ambulance chasers are a bitch. We even had classes on what not to **** up. After about a year, and our little skunk works room had thousands of sticky notes and poster boards on the wall and we finally find out what our problem really is. <drum roll> CULTURE I wonder if the people who choreographed these classes discussed what happens when they find out the real problem is the system they helped create and the inept ****s who make us go through all this **** ARE the problem. It's the system, and that just the way it is. You will become a corporate robot ass kissing robot yes man or not have a job. But in this case a funny. I don't remember what we went with instead of culture, but we had to play the game too. The people who knew how to make the trains run on time created a system in about 7 months that kicked some serious ass. Took a process that once took 6 weeks to less than two. Could take an order from sales and cut chips the same day. It won the company tech award that year. We got a raise, and stock (promptly sold). It saved them millions. It also won a JD Powers second place award in a national contest. Our CEO and his henchmen went to Vegas to accept the award. We could have went but declined. Why would I want to be around those dickheads? My boss, **** of all dicks, of course went. The CEO and co went first class, boss had to fly coach, by himself. Hahahahahahahahahaha

It's got nothing to do with tax law or politics. It all has to do with incompetent assholes who run and hire for our companies. The same clueless greedy assholes that took over academia and our government. They make the rules, they dictate policy, they make the decisions - good or bad. They are walking talking bull**** machines that couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the directions were on the bottom. Yet, they rule us. And drive those of us who try to make the trains run on time crazy. Yearly review; you really need better people skills. You could have had another one half percent raise. Really? For a ****ing half percent I will continue to be a prick, thank you. End of review. Good, your wasting my time, I have to go save your worthless ass. I sure as hell didn't design a car with a fuel pump in the gas tank or a starter under the intake manifold.

If you ever worked for a large multi-national and been a part of their research development engineering process cost & quality departments you would wonder how in the flying **** they make anything that works. Massive amounts of inept people Cost & quality department only cares about cost at the expense of quality If it can't pass the test, change the test We want to do X but X won't fit and will cause problems. It will fit - my raise and promotion depends on it. A year and millions of dollars later; hey, we have a problem, this doesn't fit. **** up move up Let's hire the guy with the highest GPA. No, you can tell from the interview the guy is an idiot. Cool, let's hire two of them. Corporate America is so many times a giant cluster **** ran by clueless arrogant corporate worms who care little about anything but themselves and their ego. The only thing good about the experience was making money and ****ing with all the idiots who deserved it. So many dickheads and so little time - they were highly entertaining though - especially when they had to squirm.

Skubal is one of the reasons I started watching the Tigers/baseball again. I love pitching, especially like this. Special. If I were a left handed batter I would tell coach to play the bat boy, he will have a better chance than me. I batted left handed and I can't imagine facing him. Unreal stuff.

The CHIPS act alone sent around 8 billion to INTC, not counting the many more billions of .gov contracts via office, military, and defense contracts (the 17 spook agencies). All under some type of MIL spec to satisfy and protect our needs. We already control them in many ways. .gov owning - assuming this 10% is publicly traded common stock - is probably not a good idea. The pigmen are quite creative though, we must give them that. One of those political cartoon artist should do one with Trump as a young shoe shine boy telling his client it was the best time ever to buy stocks. That's an old market thing for those who don't follow. It's almost like the very same pigmen need someone to sell to. Giggle.