Screwball

In prior years this would be the **** hitting the fan. Nothing happened, yet. Orange Hitler has nothing to do with it. We will see. Insurance rates on tankers aren't getting any cheaper.

A little follow up on the plant closing thing up-thread - with a new twist. Our local rag of a paper finally covered it today, good for them. I talked to one of the girls who work there, and she told me they had a potential buyer there today. Lot's of people hoping for the best. Around 5:30 a crew of 5 guys came in wearing snot green safety vests. They work for an energy company about five minutes from the ****hole bar. Their place was built a couple of years ago. It serves as a warehouse for all the supplies needed to run power lines. They have crews who truck the stuff to wherever they are running lines (in this case an hour an a half away), come home, take more tomorrow. None live around here. They are pretty much gypsies. The guy I was talking to lives in the UP of Michigan and gets home only every few months. He runs the warehouse, so he's one of the lucky ones that doesn't have to drive hours each day (he rents a house here, probably paid for). The others, if lucky get home more often. They all make big ****ing bucks. What exactly are you doing and for who? Ohio AEP, and another one, but I didn't catch the name. I will find out more. Why? Data centers. Imagine that. The funny part. He tells me his company wants to buy the place right beside them that is going out of business because they need more floor space. I won't be repeating that... I'm going to drive by tomorrow and count cars. I'm guessing, even if the road crews park there, there isn't a dozen cars. So it's not like they have a lot of local employees. Now maybe they can turn a factory that employed 400 people into a staging area for AI and data centers. He said it was all about AI. I'm not convinced, and I'm a big time tech guy. It put food on my table. AI - all idiocy.

This is kind of funny. Usually when the market makes a big move you will have many opinions on why. In this case, we have many opinions on why not? This was just a normal day for the most part. I have followed, and traded, the oil markets since the early 2000s (disclosure: I'm long crude). I expected a much bigger response to what is going on in one of the most important choke points on the globe. From my travels today I can say I am not alone. Even pump prices didn't change around here. Doesn't make a lick of sense given history.

I was late. 11:44.

Brent crude is up more than WTI, both 6 to 7% range. The S&P has gone up since open and wouldn't be surprised if it was green by noon. DOW down about 140 and the NASDAQ 23. Basically a big yawn here.

I suppose they can, but the girls at the one I go to still get a call. I asked them. With the technology we have today, they should know how much they pump and when, how much was delivered, and when they need more. I wonder if they still stick the tanks? I'll bet not. Then again, the Office Space documentary didn't really do corporate America justice.

They are all over the place around here. From $2.20 ish to $3.20 ish depending on where you are. These stations will get a phone call in the morning, or maybe tonight, telling them to change the price at the pump tomorrow. It's going up. Funny, price of gas is one of the things the CPI does a poor job of reporting, as measured, and I say reporting because the numbers are in the report if you interrogate them correctly. Going with the bigger picture, the last CPI report was better due to the lower price of gas. Depending on what happens with oil supply chains, terminals, and refineries, it could get ugly quick. To risky? They won't insure a vessel through the straight, then what, or at what price? All inflationary, directly, and indirectly. Could also be cargo. The American people can't afford a oil war right now. It didn't turn out so good last time. Not looking it up, going on memory, but maybe July of 2008 crude hit $147 a barrel. The crash of 2008 and the S&P hitting 666 around March 2009? Many think the oil shock was the pin. I think they were right.

Sunday night update since the futures markets are open. I expected the price of crude to jump, which it did. But as I type this as of 7:40 for the most part has been uneventful. As shown in the chart above crude was around $67 at close on Friday. When it opened tonight at 6 it jumped to $75 and change, then went back down to around the 72ish range and has done little since. This is Sunday night, we don't know what's going on. If anyone Wall Street does, and the tape will tell us what happens when they decide it does. It's all about the Straight of Hormuz. Some analysts think if that is closed, crude will go to $110ish. If that happens, we will of course see that at the pump. Crude today at open (incoming chart porn): For perspective, crude over the last 3 months. Notice the large gap up today, but the candle going green because it has went down since open, even though up around 7 percent. Looking at the S&P futures, the e-mini as they call it, is down, but not really a significant move, even in normal volatility on news. Looks uneventful. But it is bouncing around a resistance level. Let's zoom out a bit and look at a 6 month chart. Like some of the chart porn up thread going back to October of last year, this shows the point of downside resistance from getting into the range created by that big sell-off back then. As a trader, this will tell us what to do next. Looks like next stop 6540 if this doesn't hold. Of course, depending on what happens in our current world this can all be moot. All bets are off - or on.

I was trying to protect the names, but it's all out there now. The people I know work for the TMD plants. They are a blow mold operations making parts for Ford. Things like windshield water bottles or anti-freeze containers. They make the part in a blow mold, then it goes to a secondary operation where they might poke a hole or cut off a neck. Those are bunches of those machines - many of which are leaking oil all over the floor. Ford was there, and saw it. Not happy. For the workers, and our town, I hope they can figure it out. The Horizon they mention, if it is the same one I was familiar with years ago, make wheel lug nuts. We had a plant here at one time, but long gone. Probably to China.

Update. This became official today as it hit the news. 3 plants total, all in Ohio, 1,011 total employees. Closing at the end of April. But it gets worse. They have been under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for a while. I wasn't aware of that. The release states (this is funny); “Company leadership has indicated there has been interest in the facility and they remain optimistic about a potential path forward prior to the April 30 date,” Of course, but then there is this you have to deal with; The worker bees tell me the union wouldn't do squat. I don't know why they list maintenance workers when they seem to not do anything, and neither did management. They wouldn't do **** after the girl I know slipped on the oil and got hurt, and didn't do **** for her either. But hey, a fish stinks from the head down. What a crooked bunch of dicks. May they rot in a jail cell.

Might be a good time to be long crude oil. Some reports claim the Straight of Hormuz is not getting the usual traffic, or even closed. Crude markets are closed for the weekend, but here is the chart from yesterday for reference. 3 month daily.

I forgot one of the most important points. I asked the girl how many bad parts they were putting out? A lot... The big manufactures cannot get bad parts or bad things happen.

They still call me - my personal banker - I don't know why. Slow learners I guess.

This is their own doing. I was expelled along with hundreds of others from the big multi-national due to being too old and too expensive. They wanted to go younger and cheaper. Because money. I ended up at a company that made machines for these people, and a bunch of them. Every time the automaker, or whoever, changes a marketing gimmick - hey look - new parts. Good for them, the manufacturer, and us, the people who made their machines. Win - win. But they all ****ed it up because they are a bunch of clueless phony back stabbing pricks that know nothing about how to run a manufacturing plant.

Being kind and respecting people isn't hard. Our first interaction sets the tone on how we can go forward and make the most of the situation. As my cousin Oddball who was in Kelly's Hero's would say; "Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Not directed at you, just the quote. But I get it, I spent years in retail. Try a bar. Just add alcohol... We need to do better. We should all be above this horse****.

Follow up on this with some data from the ground. I talked to one of the girls today and she told me the OEM they supply, a big 3 auto company, were there for an inspection. They told them if they didn't fix this mess in the X amount of time (I don't remember what she said was the time frame), they would pull all their orders. After they left they told the worker bees if they can't sell the company by the end of March they will be done. Couple hundred worker bees, so probably 30-40 office bees. This is only one plant. They have another about 45 minutes away. That one is bigger. Probably another few hundred. I know this company. What was going to happen to these people was a flashing sign a long time ago. Nothing got better. This is a perfect example of how piss poor and inept our managerial talent is today.

Maybe we should just go with **** you asshole. WTF?

Interesting read on the energy requirements to continue the AI boom. From OilPrice.com. The Hidden Math Behind Rising Electricity Prices Related: I have a spreadsheet with each electric bill since January of 2022. I track all the charges. I’m on Ohio AEP. There are 4 things we pay for on the bill. The electric usage based on rate per kilowatt used. Transmission charges, distribution charges, and customer charge, which is always $10.00. Kilowatts vary by usage, the transmission and distribution charges are proportional to the kilowatts used. We can shop for better rates through alternative suppers, which may be cheaper for kilowatts used, but the rest of the chargers still apply. If I take my total bill amount and divide by Kw I used, it cost me $.1553 per KwH in Jan 22, to $.2289 per KwH in Jan of this year. Highest was .2306 a month ago. So that’s around a 50 percent increase in 4 years. And we are only getting started.

More on AI and our shrinking world; Burger King will use AI to check if employees say ‘please’ and ‘thank you’ A start...

More local data that makes me wonder where this is all going. County North of here closing a plant costing 160+ jobs. County to the West, home of a Goodyear tire plant offering early retirements and voluntary layoffs. Their tire mold shop across town to close either beginning or end of March - 185 good paying jobs gone. Will be relocated to one of the Southern states. We had a plant that employed a couple hundred close last year. Others laying people off in the area. Been told the job market in Columbus, Ohio, not so good. AI is not going to replace those people. When not enough people are working, something has to give.

I only knew about the 40 scale. 5 tools, each worth 2 to 8 points. Hit = 6, hit for power= 5, arm= 6, catch=5, run=7. Total = 29 out of 40. That was how you were rated. They had you run a 60 yard dash - the distance from home to second base. IIRC, back in the 70s you had be be under 7.2 or you were immediately gone.

Well, to be honest, they never left (pun intended), we just sent the jobs to China, India, and any other third world county where there are no slave labor laws, environmental awareness, safety, and next to no pay. They even feature workplaces with nets so the workers wouldn't go splat on the ground because it was better than working 20 hours a day. But we don't see that here. We have Chinamarts, Amazon, and a credit card. So it's all good.

Last year a girl slipped due to oil on the concrete floor and busted her hand. She was off work for several months. How can that happen to begin with? Where is maintenance? Where is OSHA? Did anyone call them? They sure as hell should, but the girls tell me nobody cares. They also need a job, and are afraid of losing it. So they STFU. They told me today they are still walking on towels in front of their machines. So sad. Maybe we can bring back child labor and textile mills.

I agree with you, for the most part. We had an old saying in corporate America; it's the same, but different. I think that applies here. Another bubble (the same), but blown a different way (the different). I do think it has more financial integrity than the dot-com bubble. When you look at the bigger picture, the massive capital expenditures to build data centers, chips, computer stuff, and the infrastructure to do so is incredible, no doubt. As well what it will take to build them. I talked to a guy a few months ago who was laying concrete somewhere in Southern Ohio that had 8 semi-truck sized generators running 24/7/365 to power a data center that isn't even done yet. But...At the end of the day, what's the goal? Data centers are what powers the AI stuff. Like super horsepower search engines. The centers themselves do not employ a huge amount of people, but they suck up a bunch of power, water, and will no doubt contribute to increasing our utility bills. The real goal of AI, which couldn't happen without all this, is to eliminate jobs. Zero's and ones. Binary language that eventually became the connection between humans and technology. Once we can train something to do our physical work (robots), our customer service interaction, or any task the corporation decides they can replace people with AI. Cha-ching. We are now selling AI as a solution to run our businesses. This AI stuff will work until it doesn't. I make a point of going to the local ****hole bar around 3:30 when a bunch of local factory workers come in. I get to hear their horror stories, both worker bees and management. Cornhole is ripe with small companies who supply the auto industry, or the big appliance company out of Michigan, also known as WHR. All ain't well in Mudville, according to the worker bees. Shutdowns coming, days off, no pay. Checked with a boss bee who worked for another company. Same. People who makes parts for the big three are walking on towels on the floor soaked with hydraulic fluid leaking from the machines they have to run. That's nuts - but a sure sign of a company that is very poorly ran - and about to go broke - or sued into oblivion. AI is all about replacing jobs. While **** like that goes on, and maybe why. Small example, but true everywhere. I lived in the beast. This is nothing new, just different.

It was simple back then. I really get a kick out of the stats you guys use. I think Earl Weaver was ahead of his time using index cards. Now look what we have. You can't teach speed. That was my real point. They timed me with a sun dial.