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Everything posted by gehringer_2
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Probably too fine a distinction for anyone who was a victim, but 'FatMan' and 'LittleBoy' were 'Atomic' bombs (~250kT), not 'Hydrogen' (aka "thermonuclear") which are a whole 2nd class of weapons developed later (not likely to get a good movie about Edward Teller - though his character does appear in 'Oppenheimer' with the idea already in mind) and are an order of magnitude or more more powerful (~10mT) than the WWII 'atomics'. The difference is that the first atomics were fission devices in which heavy elements such a uranium are split, the 'H' bomb is a fusion device in which heavy hydrogen is fused. The 2nd depended on the invention of the 1st because it requires a small atomic bomb in the payload to detonate the fusion part of the bomb.
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I don't want to put too fine a point on it, the situation in Gaza is intolerable, but the point remains that it's very easy for a bystander nations to have 'serious' reservations about what other countries see as their vital interests. The problem for Israel is that it has worked hard to squander much of the West's willingness to accept what they are doing by being beastly to all the Palestinians they have not been at war with for the last 20 yrs. I have to believe if the Israeli public had ever voted in a government that was even remotely interested in working toward some solution in the West Bank other than the Likud 'solution' of somehow just eventually pushing all the Palestinians out of the West Bank, their international diplomatic leeway after the Hamas attacks would be greater. But now it is what it is. You have an Israeli government that deserves little sympathy, led by one of the 21st century's new blow dried wanabe-fascists on one side, and a group of completely malignant killers on the other. There is no question which side the Western choice ultimately has to fall, but that doesn't mean anyone has to like the choice. And how do Egypt and Jordan skate by the condemnation they should be under for keeping the Palestinian civilian population trapped in Gaza with Hamas? That is a piece of this equation that is missing. When the US was going after ISIS, the civilian populations were often able to flee the scene and leave the battlefield to the armed contestants. The Gazan civilians are caught in the middle by the choice of their supposed friends.
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HaHa. Maybe not in miles, but one of the truly terrible 120 mile drives in America most hours of the day.
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12/13/23 @7PM EST Philadelphia Sixers @ Detroit Pistons
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Pistons
Additional Cunningham ranks for the season (qualifiied): Assists: 8th Scoring: 31st TRB: 137st eFG: 135th 3P%: 140th TO: 1st Wanted: nearby corner for recent 1:1 pick to turn. -
Yup. remembering to take a jacket with you when you leave the house at 2p in 80F in SoCal because you won't be back until after dark doesn't compute to a midwesterner.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
For baseball, parity still will not get a team a WS win on a regular schedule because winning a WS is fundamentally a random outcome within the subset of teams that make the playoffs. As has been discussed before, a small number of baseball games has too little power to reliably say anything about any team with a record good enough to get to the playoff. Thus it is easy for a good team to reach the playoffs repeatedly and still not win a WS - e.g. the 14 Braves teams from '91 to '05 just as a matter of bad random luck. But parity should guarantee that any team that manages its resources decently should have a a chance of an appearance in the playoffs proportionately often. I would look at annual win/loss % or playoff appearances rather than titles as per MB above -
Agree that WWII is the pacific is actually the apt parallel. 2400 people were killed at Pearl Harbor. so WWII in the Pacific was anything but 'proportional' to that. But what Japan did on Dec 7 is like what Hamas did on Oct 7 in that it demonstrated that a nation was facing a hostile malignant power that had to be ended, not just 'responded' to.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
That's what I would take it to mean - the idea that any team has roughly equal chance to be a good team if it brings a similar level of management skill to the table - that the league set up doesn't have a consistent bias against certain teams - which in the end means all teams should have similar resource bases. -
2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
Baseball has the most randomizing inputs that mask team quality and keep winning percentages close. I wouldn't call that the same thing as parity in terms of the ability to win your division occasionally. -
A conventional hot water tank will not drain once the pressure is out of the system - they exit from the top. It will just sit there full of water. The only water that will drain once the main is closed is whatever is in the pipes above whatever point he opens. I will usually open a basement faucet and that will let out most of what I don't want running out on me when I open the point I have to work on. This will also keep water from still flowing where you are working in case your main doesn't seal tightly, which is not uncommon in an old house. Best piece of advice is any sink or fixture you do work on, while you are at it get rid of any 'gate' (multiple turn) valves used as local shut offs (like the one you can't turn) and replace with 1/4 turn ball valves. They will still work years later when you need them to. As for the valve you can't turn, Del's advice is good. Use a pair of channel locks and slowly try working it back and forth, slowly breaking up the scale that is binding it. Once you do get it to move, don't expect to get a good shut off until you get it to rotate through it's full range of motion several times. If you can get it move fairly freely you might get a good enough turn off to work on the faucet. But I would still turn off the main and get rid of the old valve when you service the faucet.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
Sure. Max was smart enough to know the details of the NPVs well enough - but I don't think he minded that the media comparison made it a lot easier to say he left for a big money difference than all the reasons he was probably irritated with the Tigers that just would have produced more blowback for him to have talked about in public. -
2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
and if the AAV is 45M, that means given the devaluation of the deferrals, the contract is actually worth $450M in current dollars. Not nearly so exciting. I remember at the time the Ilitches complained that Scherzer's "$250M" contract offer from WSN was actually not worth any significant amount more than their $140m(? don't remember the exact number) offer because of deferrals but that wasn't stopping anyone from calling them cheap anyway. -
2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
Whether the 1st is true or not is the critical difference. If they have to distribute the AAV over the playing years in the deal that is a huge difference - that means they only get around the amount of the tax equal to the time value of money (again and who decides that rate is a big deal also). -
2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
The deferred payment is worth less, so they should pay the tax on the 'true' amount - nothing wrong with that. The only joke is on the public, which thinks Ohtani is getting $700M when it may be something more like $450M in constant dollars. And that is actually the biggest question in this - who got to decide what the discount rate applied to the deferred payments is? That number has a very large impact on what the tax charge will be. -
I was a child of that era's TV but I never cared much for Lucy's personna on the show either, but it worked to set up the other three cast members so the show overall was OK. For me the female archtype she was clowning off of never worked because the women in my family were so decidedly unlike any of that. So as a child there was no ring of recognition in what she was doing,
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Are they wasting his time with his placement?
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
Interesting - so that also depends on an interest rate assumption. So net present value of the deferrals will be a lot less with interest rate up at 5% than they would have been before the Fed started turning the screws. -
The other point goes to Biden, who apparently knows how to President. Tuberville got *nothing* from the admin, that knew they could play a better game of chicken than he could.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
so the hope is that by the time he hangs up his cleats, inflation will have devalued the payments owed enough to where they won't create significant luxury tax liability or drag on current payroll - or that the whole CBA will have changed enough to make it all moot. If they still owe him $20M/yr in 25yrs, at 2.5% inflation that only costs them ~$11M in today's dollars. OTOH, if most of the money is 20+yrs out, the contract isn't really worth anywhere near $700M in real terms either. Either way, it's risking a lot on a guess about what the Federal Reserve will do far into the future. Considering that his arm is going into the shop for the second time and he's not been a particularly high average/low K hitter for his career that you'd expect to have a better chance to still be hitting much past 35 it's a bold move for the Dodgers to say the least. -
Beck's parting speculation in his story on Chafin was Wentz going to the BP as the 3rd lefty if he doesn't make the rotation. I agree he probably won't make the rotation. Looking at some of his results, it appears that through the course of last season Wentz's steadily lost velo on his FB. If it keeps him from wearing down, maybe working in relief would be the ticket for him but I have my doubts. I remember being impressed by him a couple of times out in '22 but he seemed to regress last season.
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My $$ would be that Foley will end up closing. The question is what to do with Lange. A guy who doesn't throw strikes is just as bad in the 8th as the 9th.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
Will the luxury tax on Ohtani end up being more than the entire Orioles or A's payroll, or even both? -
Week Fourteen: Detroit Lions (9-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-8)
gehringer_2 replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
they who live by the running QB, eventually die by the running QB -
It's too bad TT is such an idiot generally because the one saving grace of having a football coach in the Congress is that he was apparently working on some legislation to straighten out the NCAA, though I don't know enough about the details to have any idea if it was progress to just making a bad situation worse. But he has so devalued himself now that even if he had a good idea about something he might not find anyone willing to listen to or work with him.
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2023 MLB (non-Tigers) catch all thread
gehringer_2 replied to Tigeraholic1's topic in Detroit Tigers
If you have a power arm, that gets identified pretty early in your career, before you ever have show you have any hitting potential. That will get you to the majors without you ever having any hitting ability in the first place - so practicing it more probably won't get a lot of guys very far. Plus maybe different training methods? Developing a musculature that is optimal for hitting and pitching may not work for many guys.