gehringer_2

I suppose there are a couple of different views you can take on this episode. On the one hand, the bad news is that the anarchists were able to win by forcing the speaker to accept all their conditions - though the final word on that may not be written until we see if there turns out to be a fight on the rules, Monday. But on the other hand, the events can can also be read that the GOP caucus as a whole did stand firm and out last the anarchists by refusing to force McCarthy aside though the course of the 15 votes in which he lost only a single supporter from the first vote. Hard to know which of these interpretations is going to be more predictive of rest of the session.

Forecast for game time is 24 deg, no snow. Much less bad than it could be.

Kevin McCarthy begins his speakership

but you can be sure he will be claiming a personal victory within the time it takes to tap out 160 characters from the gavel drop.

I don't think it's a very long limb to climb out on to predict McCarthy will fall in fairly short order, probably when the 1st debt ceiling vote comes up. The FC will refuse to let the speaker bring it to a vote and that will be the end of McCarthy. At that point, when it's something real on the table and not just a personnel matter, we'll see if a durable majority to govern can emerge from a coalition of the center of the two parties or not.

Watch them lose someone else before the end of vote 15.

At the last minute McCarthy moved his people against adjournment. Could be McCarthy finally got the vote he needed from Gaetz

McCarthy hanging on one vote change.

I've given him his due when he has won and on the fact that he generally does right by his players. But he's also a grade 1-A nut job and it never seems to be more than a matter of time between his descents into stupidity, whether it's via twitter, in his play calling, his juvenile insults of other people, the recurring Hamlet act, or now a potentially more consequential bit of stupidity like this. Do you disagree that a primary piece of the job description at Michigan is exactly not to end up where they are now? That's part of the performance review at UM just like wins and losses. You can argue the system is flawed and stupid and I'll give you 100% agreement, but that is the system he's paid to toe the line in.

and it gets more stupid by the day. But they don't pay him millions of bucks to tilt at NCAA windmills, they pay him to win and to not have stuff like this happen.

I don't know why Lalonde uses Sundqvist on the PK, he's slower than molassas. A good PK is usually a matter of speed and disruption.

HITL is a 6 yr old packing? A Derringer maybe?

did he lie or did he obstruct? We all seem to be assuming the former but it's another step to the latter.

the truth is it probably wasn't Fisher or Frieder that was making that program go, neither had any big success after leaving it. I guess it must really have been all Ed Martin.

Yes, they never could have won that game without Steve Fisher...... not.

right - certainly puts a different spin on Bacon's report earlier report. On its initial face you'd have thought "changes" meant NIL, and the portal and player payment issues - in retrospect it now appears it was less about the nature of college football in the future and more about the inconvenience of having to follow the rules.

as usual when a negative story breaks about UM sport - Crickets in the Ann Arbor News...😱 Maybe it will be nothing, but a difficulty here on the Level one charge is that it doesn't require a lot of outside corroboration, the investigators themselves are their own evidentiary source which could make it a lot harder to argue the the facts of the charge with any success.

LOL - So all the while we thought nutcase Harbaugh had gone into remission, maybe he was still there waiting to strike again. Maybe it's going to turn out the buy-out language supposedly being argued about was Harbaugh wanted out of the the University's right to terminate if the program was found guilty of violations....

loosely metaphorical description of his not letting Freider coach the NCAA.

To bring in someone from the outside would in a way actually be closer to the UK model where the Speaker of the House of Commons renounces his party affiliation when he is elected. I've always wondered how the people in the district he stands in for the next election feel about that.

I suppose it depends on how much of the old Bo kind of sentiment still exists in the AD and admin -- As in 'if you can't decide you want to be here, we can find someone else just like we found you." You have to remember the people Harbaugh is dealing are mostly people with big accomplishments of their own and if they believe Harbaugh's success is at least as much due to the University as it is to him, there will be a limit to how much of the Hamlet routine will help him. The old "This is Michgan" routine, "we can get anyone we want to come here." Not saying this is the case, but that it's always a possibility to keep in mind. Remember Bo as AD locked a guy out of the building that had gotten him to an NCAA championship for 'disloyalty'. I wouldn't necessarily assume that level of arrogance doesn't still exist in the people Harbaugh is negotiating with so they probably are not going to be easy enough for him to roll that they are going to fall over because of a press release. And of course the bottom line if he wants more money is that Manuel has to find it somewhere on the outside and if he can't you have to get the regents onboard (i.e. cat herding) and either of those can take time. So if Harbaugh is sitting on a time sensitive NFL offer there is another factor. Oddly enough, J Howard's current struggles probably increase Harbaugh's leverage if makes them think twice about how hard it is to replace a winning coach.

And the McCarthy clique keeps putting out that they are "this close!" while yet admitting they still can't get to 218 (that's 'phase two') and while the votes show they aren't actually moving anyone.

Geez, that only isn't a 'hard no', that's a 'why doesn't someone give me a call?'

Agree on one level, but OTOH, like I noted before, the real problem is lack of leadership inside the GOP conference to tell him to end it, or even organize additional votes against him to make the point to him. McCarthy is acting puerile, but it's also true that he is being enabled by the rest of them.

It not so much change in the contribution of a particular variable over time, the question would be whether the contribution is the same for two different teams that have different hitting profiles. IOW, the question is if you add player with profile 'X' to team A he will the combination of 'X' have more impact than if you add him to team 'B.' I'm not saying the premise is true, but just wondering whether the possibility has ever even been investigated with any rigor, because I can certainly conceive that it could be true.