An anecdote that I think applies here: the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate Election.
John Fetterman had a stroke during the campaign which visibly impacted him and, subsequently, caused his opponent and supporters of his opponent (Dr. Oz) to make a significant issue of his health. Surveys that were done of the election showed that while Fetterman generally maintained a lead throughout, voters had significant concerns about his health. In the debate held between the two candidates, Fetterman was perceived to be DOA by many people (including in the mainstream media) due to a shaky debate performance that was undoubtedly influenced by the after effects of his stroke.
Fast forward to election day.... I'm watching CNN and the panel received exit poll data. One of the questions asked was whether Fetterman's health or Dr. Oz being a longtime resident of NJ was a bigger issue.... voters said Oz's residency questions were a bigger issue by a 55-45 margin. The panel was stunned by the result (though they shouldn't have been). Fetterman ended up going on to win by 5 points, and it's likely his stroke didn't have much impact at all on Pennsylvanians when they entered the voting booth.
This is a good example of why we need to be careful in declaring how elections are going to turn on one thing or another, especially this far out.