Just my two cents, but there's a tendency in the larger discussion to rate issues where the ground is more favorable to the GOP as more important versus those that favor Dems (specifically Dobbs).... and we've seen multiple off-Presidential cycles where that particular issue was downplayed and where, when the votes were counted, it mattered a lot more than people expected it would.
Whether that extends to a Presidential cycle remains to be seen, but you would think that folks would be a little more careful than to casually dismiss the importance of that issue.