mtutiger

I heard his comments, I don't think it's something she should harp on over and over, but I don't think it's a bad part of her bio to highlight.... especially given that her opponent comes from the elite and hasn't had a day of real actual work in his entire life.

Polling over the past week has consistently showed Walz as being the most popular of each of the candidates currently on a ticket... Yet these clowns think he's the worst VP pick ever. Just stuck in their bubble

The disorienting thing about our current moment versus previous cycles is just how the drive of the news cycle is out of Trump's hand at the moment. In the nine years since he came down the escalator, I don't think we've seen him less in control of the narrative (except for the two weeks after Jan 6th anyway) I know we are all influenced by the past, but it's a real distinction from 2016 and 2020. It explains the press conferences over the past week, even if they probably do more harm than good.

Maybe. Although the bigger likelihood is that it will come and go and they'll move on to the next thing, which will also lead to words like "communism" being thrown around. The formula is pretty well established at this point.

The word "communism" gets thrown around so much these days to the point where it has lost all meaning.

It's amazing how much he detests those whose served and sacrificed.

Wat

10% mortgage rates?

The fact that the GOP is spending such an inordinate amount of time going after Tim Walz really demonstrates how much they are struggling in figuring out how to deal with Harris IMO.

Agreed.... I don't think it matters too much so long as the IRL campaign (ie. the interfacing that it does with the public, rallies, etc.) doesn't start engaging in it (Clinton 2016 and Trump 2020 both being cautionary tales there)

Is pfife now advising Biden? Haha

Relative to his siblings, he's the one you can squint at and see some semblance of potential in. But I don't think there's anyone inside or outside of the family that will ever recapture Trump Sr.'s formula.

This is obviously correct from the GOP perspective, but it all comes down to the candidate. You can never count him out, but it's never a good situation to be in when the situation requires a 78 year old man, whose performance itself is declining, to suddenly become something he isn't capable of being

Kamala would win 400+ ECVs with Uday on the ballot lol

Just not ready for prime time...

Hillsdale is also Toledo media market; Monroe isn't, although the southern portion of the county probably has access to TV stations. Granted, Hillsdale is significantly more red than Lenawee or Monroe so probably less of an effect there. Either way, people would be surprised, but margins can actually swing in border counties based on TV Market Advertising... probably less so with a Presidential election than a Governors race or a primary, but it isn't insignificant either if you're trying to reach every single voter. I didn't see it listed, but South Bend media market would be another one that's probably worth throwing a few dollars at even though it's in Indiana.... decent population base along the border in those counties as well

Worth mentioning that Harris +19 is still running a little behind Biden 2020, but much better shape now. Still room for improvement.

Speaking from experience (family in the county), the locals in Lenawee county primarily watch Toledo stations. Cannot speak to Monroe, but there's probably at least a bit of overlap there as well

Lenawee is as well... Both Monroe and Lenawee are red counties, but voters in Adrian and Monroe can help change margin with better minority/Dem turnout

The real tell for months was that rarely, if ever, did Trump pull 50% share in any of the national or state polling, even when he had sizable leads. At least until the last week or so before Biden dropped out. It was wild that pundits never picked up on it, but then again, motivated reasoning could be at play there.

Toledo is a perfect market if you are looking to put a little money into Ohio while hedging it as an investment in Michigan.... Never understood why Biden didn't do it in 20

I understand.... I think point number two carries a lot less weight given the nature of these voters (Biden 2020 voters -> undecided), ideologically, they are not fellow travelers with Trump. Point number one is theoretically possible, but for Trump's campaign, it would be dangerous to rely on this happening as it is something that is out of his control and, by and large, would require some massive mistake / black swan event that would damage Harris. Your second point will matter more as we get further into the election and the battle starts to be over swing and undecided voters... as far as definition is concerned, it's honestly been shocking at how ineffective they have been at trying to define Harris, and it seems like the month between the Biden dropout and Chicago is an extremely important time for which to do it. A lot of it has to do with the fact that commercials / paid media can only do so much.... they have some ads out hitting her on the subjects you would expect them to, but they only go so far when the guy at the top can't hammer a theme and rambles about other, less effective **** when rallying (ie. culture war ****) Overall, the bigger piece that I think Crosstab Hater is getting at is understanding why pre-debate polls were showing what they were.... despite the framing of there being many Biden->Trump voters by many pundits, the polls almost always were showing Biden lagging in share among Dem voters. Which means it was all about enthusiasm, and that the voters were being lost either to the couch or to third parties. With Harris in the race, that dynamic is upended. And it's hard to see with that particular dynamic being upended how it could be attributed to an ephemeral bounce or sugar high.

Great question