mtutiger

Defensive Coordinators.... definitely not important to the success of any football team. Just incredible.

His campaign this year is a mix of competent and incompetent... the people at the very top (Wiles and LaCivita) are probably better than either of his first two runs, honestly. But the rest of the operation leaves a lot to be desired, and the candidate is almost impossible to manage in terms of keeping on message.

Nikki Haley has since boarded the "Trump Train".... but her comment back during the winter that the first party to ditch their 80 year old nominee would win seems prescient in retrospect. Regarding 2016 being eight years ago, aside from people possibly being tired of the show, demographics change as well... generational attrition has happened since then. Millennials and Gen Z are going to make up a larger piece of the electorate in 2024 and, on balance, these aren't groups that are more favorable to Trump than those they are replacing in the electorate. The suburbs are also much different over the last 8 years, both in terms of how they vote and in terms of how they are diversifying (both in terms of age and ethnicity) Not saying that everything is sunshine and rainbows for the Ds, certainly think concerns with Latinos and younger men remain.... but it's just hard to compare 2016 to now. It's an entirely different world.

FWIW, this Marquette poll is likely an outlier, but directionally, it still confirms that this is a much different race and, at least nationally, is one that Harris is opening up a small lead in.

Yeah, I've been wary about entirely attributing this purely to a honeymoon period given how much Biden's struggles in the polls prior to leaving the race were attributed simply to base enthusiasm issues. Don't mean this to downplay Harris' rollout, because it has more or less gone about as well as it could have given the circumstances, but if you eliminate the issues with base consolidation, what is happening now is kind of what you would expect to happen.

Part of the issue here is that, to the extent that there is anger about the economy as it pertains to inflation (easing now, but 2022 and 2023 were legit bad), voters have associated it far more with Biden. In all of this polling since he left the race, when the question of the economy shows up, it has tended to show a much closer split between Harris and Trump. In other words, Harris isn't being penalized for whatever uneasiness people still have with the economy, fair or otherwise. Immigration is still a bigger gap, though maybe slightly smaller than before. But it's not as salient as it was, particularly as border crossings have fallen steeply during 2024 and as the migrant busing issue (which once dominated the nightly news where I live) has faded into the background. Ultimately, the economy is where the rubber meets the road. And an environment where Trump is only slightly ahead and where he's not clobbering his opponent on the issue is one where he absolutely can lose. This all again goes back to the month between the dropout and the DNC... the clock is ticking, and paid media alone isn't a sufficient strategy for countering the earned media bonanza that Harris/Walz are now benefiting from IMO.

I hadn't considered this possibility as to why he's not out as much, although his schedule has been a lot lighter throughout this campaign regardless.

It's not even that he didn't try, although that's a valid point, it's the fact that he doesn't have any sort of message discipline. The campaign of course is producing ads, and they have generally been hitting Kamala on the areas that you would expect them to (ie. immigration, economy, etc). But when he has had public appearances, such as the Atlanta rally over the weekend, he not only didn't focus on or reinforce any of those issues but actively made life harder by, for instance, going after the wife of Governor Brian Kemp. To be clear, he wasn't clear and concise and rambled a lot in 2016 as well, but the degree to which he is consumed by grievance and articulate any sort of substantive message is markedly different when you compare to videos of him from that campaign.

This is true, and thinking about it more, it's really strange that they aren't counter programming better. The other part is that, we are less than two weeks from the DNC... the most common refrain after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris was that the time between that point and Chicago was a race to define Kamala Harris. We are halfway between that point and he beginning of the convention, and unequivocally, Trump's campaign is losing that race. And with his schedule this week, is actively wasting time that could be used in that effort. It raises a ton of questions... I don't think it's purely campaign strategy, I'm sure Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita know what to do. But there's only so much you can do with a bad candidate.

What we've seen so far has been base consolidation, which seems like it could be lasting. The next test is gonna be with independent and swing voters. Reasons for optimism there, especially with the convention coming up. But the fall will be important too

I honestly don't know, but I think Biden's issues with aging have overshadowed... this. This isn't new. His schedule has been light this entire time, his rallies have been even more insane and incoherent, he flubs more than he used to, etc. And for as much as him and "Substitute Pence" talk about Kamala not having a press conference, outside of that disaster-class NABJ debacle, he hasn't had one of those in months either. He spends all his time in safe spaces (like Fox and with other right wing media outlets/figures) It just didn't get noticed until now more broadly when people are sizing him up against a more youthful candidate. That's what we are seeing here IMO

He did get that weird-ass cyber truck from the Adin Ross guy Just not serious

He's 78 years old and in poor health. And has poor judgment. It's been the same thing the entire damn campaign... But the conditions have changed such that it is much more stark and much more noticeable

Incredible

Maybe he needs to call Dr. Ronny Johnson and get one of those cognitive screenings? He seems confused

Another swing and a miss at a high 80s heater...

Ironic given that Glenn Close was in his biopic... but getting real "Fatal Attraction" vibes here...

Does this make JD the Spencer Torkelson of VP candidates?

Texas' movement has tended to be somewhat untethered by national margins (similar to Georgia), so it wouldnt surprise me if landed closer than 2020. Though I agree she won't win it Ethan's point does matter though if you believe there will be a gap between Trump and Cruz tho... A close Trump win could end up being a close Cruz loss if there is a gap.

This clip really sums him up well

I don't think it gets discussed enough, but in all likelihood, this is going to be the first campaign out of his three where he will clearly be outworked by his opposition. And that will likely matter one way or another. Sending JD to cover (as he's doing this week) isn't going to be adequate.

The couch line is getting a lot of attention, but Tim dropped napalm with "Like all regular people I knew growing up in the heartland, JD studied at Yale..." He should keep deploying that line...

Punching at air