mtutiger

Relative to his siblings, he's the one you can squint at and see some semblance of potential in. But I don't think there's anyone inside or outside of the family that will ever recapture Trump Sr.'s formula.

This is obviously correct from the GOP perspective, but it all comes down to the candidate. You can never count him out, but it's never a good situation to be in when the situation requires a 78 year old man, whose performance itself is declining, to suddenly become something he isn't capable of being

Kamala would win 400+ ECVs with Uday on the ballot lol

Just not ready for prime time...

Hillsdale is also Toledo media market; Monroe isn't, although the southern portion of the county probably has access to TV stations. Granted, Hillsdale is significantly more red than Lenawee or Monroe so probably less of an effect there. Either way, people would be surprised, but margins can actually swing in border counties based on TV Market Advertising... probably less so with a Presidential election than a Governors race or a primary, but it isn't insignificant either if you're trying to reach every single voter. I didn't see it listed, but South Bend media market would be another one that's probably worth throwing a few dollars at even though it's in Indiana.... decent population base along the border in those counties as well

Worth mentioning that Harris +19 is still running a little behind Biden 2020, but much better shape now. Still room for improvement.

Speaking from experience (family in the county), the locals in Lenawee county primarily watch Toledo stations. Cannot speak to Monroe, but there's probably at least a bit of overlap there as well

Lenawee is as well... Both Monroe and Lenawee are red counties, but voters in Adrian and Monroe can help change margin with better minority/Dem turnout

The real tell for months was that rarely, if ever, did Trump pull 50% share in any of the national or state polling, even when he had sizable leads. At least until the last week or so before Biden dropped out. It was wild that pundits never picked up on it, but then again, motivated reasoning could be at play there.

Toledo is a perfect market if you are looking to put a little money into Ohio while hedging it as an investment in Michigan.... Never understood why Biden didn't do it in 20

I understand.... I think point number two carries a lot less weight given the nature of these voters (Biden 2020 voters -> undecided), ideologically, they are not fellow travelers with Trump. Point number one is theoretically possible, but for Trump's campaign, it would be dangerous to rely on this happening as it is something that is out of his control and, by and large, would require some massive mistake / black swan event that would damage Harris. Your second point will matter more as we get further into the election and the battle starts to be over swing and undecided voters... as far as definition is concerned, it's honestly been shocking at how ineffective they have been at trying to define Harris, and it seems like the month between the Biden dropout and Chicago is an extremely important time for which to do it. A lot of it has to do with the fact that commercials / paid media can only do so much.... they have some ads out hitting her on the subjects you would expect them to, but they only go so far when the guy at the top can't hammer a theme and rambles about other, less effective **** when rallying (ie. culture war ****) Overall, the bigger piece that I think Crosstab Hater is getting at is understanding why pre-debate polls were showing what they were.... despite the framing of there being many Biden->Trump voters by many pundits, the polls almost always were showing Biden lagging in share among Dem voters. Which means it was all about enthusiasm, and that the voters were being lost either to the couch or to third parties. With Harris in the race, that dynamic is upended. And it's hard to see with that particular dynamic being upended how it could be attributed to an ephemeral bounce or sugar high.

Great question

This thread is probably the most cogent retelling of how we got here, from a position where Biden was down 2-3 to where Harris is now up 2-3 in national polling. And here is the upshot: People speculate about a "honeymoon", but I don't know why anyone that previously was indicating "undecided" or "third party" and is now indicating "Harris" would suddenly flip back or flip to Trump. She still has a lot of work to do, but the gains that she has made here seem mostly to be base consolidation.... beware commentators who attribute this to a "sugar high"

It's honestly shocking we aren't hearing more in the media about it given how many journalists were willing to openly speculate about dementia as well. He's been bad for a while, and he recently was nearly shot and probably (deep down) has trauma from that too. The version from the press conference or the Musk thing tonight is the best version we will get from him in the present and future... He's not getting any younger, he will not improve.

Apparently Trump's interview with Leon Musk ain't doing so hot

Crowd size discourse is annoying honestly, but this is where the impact lies; it just completely eats him up inside to see someone (far) outdrawing him

This clip is really bad performance art

This is true of Brian Kemp fwiw. He's going through the motions, standing by Trump, but the reality is that he has little reason to want Trump to win, at least as a practical political matter.

I don't think it's particularly new either... I remember saying this stuff back in November and December of last year when he started pulling ahead of Biden... Just think that Biden's own unpopularity and concerns about his age kinda buried this notion that people were wore out by this stuff. Even now, it doesn't look like 2020 out there in terms of regalia flying or hat wearing

I don't think so either, tbh, people know who he is at this point... I just think there's a general exhaustion around his schtick. It's old and he's old.

Man, how the tables have turned...

You know it's bad when GOP pollsters are pushing back on Axe's take in a poll where Trump is losing lol