mtutiger

Bacon's comment likely reflects his own district some - the district (essentially Omaha) gave Biden an EC vote in 2020. And the possibly the only reason he was reelected in that year was that the nominee wasn't good and was a little too far to the left of the median voter. But the other part of this is that, along with Bacon's district, there are about 15 other districts that voted for Biden in 2020 where Rs represent. Chaos in the US House of Representatives comes with a lot of peril for those districts and, by extension, the GOP majority - flipping just a handful of these districts would flip the House. I do think it's a fair point to point out that overperformance, but past isn't necessarily prologue and guys like Bacon or Fitzpatrick aren't necessarily going to be feel comforted by that either.

Good Lord, they're just entertainment lol

All of which can still happen this offseason. Again, I think there's an implication by some that Harris is just sitting back and not trying to do anything because there hasn't been a lot of buzz, and that is pretty unfair. But in any free agent market, players have a decent amount of leverage, even those at the lower end of the market. This team won 66 games last year... teams that are unsuccessful generally don't have the same kind of leverage that teams who win more games do. Last years Tigers likely stand as a good example... they won 77 games and did manage to have a decent offseason on paper in the free agent market. But I keep preaching patience because the offseason isn't over yet. Maybe a couple of free agent signings happen and/or a trade or two. Even now, we are a couple of these kinds of transactions away from all of the laments about the Tigers offseason being made obsolete. Maybe nothing additional happens, and I'm fine with the criticism at that point. But a lot of epitaphs are being written about this offseason while it is still ongoing, and it's kinda puzzling

They aren't going to give up their majority. If the rest of the caucus are embarrassed, they need to figure out a way to isolate them. This happens all the time at the state level, in Texas, Speakers have been elected for years with Democratic votes. That will be happening in Ohio this upcoming year, Pennsylvania will have a coalition government, Alaska, etc.

Enough talk, Don... time to put forward an alternative.

Today should tell a lot... if McCarthy can't get there after putting the deals down on paper... And one of the flaws of McCarthy's line of thinking is that the pressure should rachet up on the remaining holdouts if he wins some votes back today. I wouldn't make that bet, the hardcore holdouts (ie. Goetz, Boebert) are shameless. You can't negotiate with that.

I'm with Oblong... she may seriously consider it, but I doubt she actually does it. Some of it may have been her opponent (Karamo) and the relevance of SoS elections in 2022, but aside from Slotkin, Benson may be best positioned as she outran the rest of the statewide ticket. Even Whitmer (who has suggested she will not run)

The compromise candidate has to be a Republican, and if we are being completely honest, it would have to be put forward by a Republican as well. The moment a Democrat formally advances a candidate while McCarthy is maintaining his current share, that candidate would become politically radioactive imo.

First they had a breakthrough, now they're pushing to adjourn. Sounds like they still don't have the votes lol

I think we both know that isn't going to happen until there are members of the majority party who show real interest in a coalition Speaker. Outside of maaaybe Don Bacon, not sure I've heard a single member of the majority party express interest up until now.

Onto Round 9.....

Not a single vote moved to McCarthy since Round 6

LOL, Gaetz just voted for TRUMP

The downside of horse trading on committee seats: you risk upsetting those in line to get kicked off seats or to be skipped in seniority

A lot of the punditry talks about the distinction whether this group wants something or whether it's personal as if it really matters... all that matters is the math, and Kevin doesn't appear to have it in his favor and it's questionable if he ever will. And at some point, this does have to get called out as an ego-stroking exercise for Kev, no?

There was never gonna be a good time to have an open seat, but this seems like a decent cycle for it - deep bench, MIGOP with a weak bench and a Presidential election cycle that will index the race pretty closely with results in the state. Slotkin seems like the best overall candidate to me, but that does open her seat in the House up which is suboptimal

I mean, that's what they will expect, not sure any candidate (such as Scalise) would be willing to give it to them.

It's not a safe seat by any means, but I commend Stabenow for knowing when it is time to pass the torch. A lot of pols (like Feinstein) don't.

Exactly. All this horse trading, but if it doesn't get him to 218 (absent present votes), it's all for nothing. It's almost like he just values having "Former Speaker" on his resume at this point lol

This is the other space to watch... now that he's given up more concessions, how does his other flank feel about it?

The thing about these concessions is - frankly, we still don't know if it the degree that the changes will even close the gap. McCarthy has sold the farm and liquidated all of his other assets, and it *still* may not be enough to win the job. On one hand, one imagines this is the best it's gonna get for the 20, but OTOH, there's a percentage of that group who are intractable and may be impossible for McCarthy to overcome.

Talk about the tail wagging the dog... Jeebus

lol