mtutiger

Uhh

Texas really is changing...

Another one that the experts didn't consider competitive... Omaha

Take all the time you need

👀

This was a flip opportunity for the Rs

North Carolina - Budd appears to be running behind Trump by 3-4% in a couple of counties

Only a few precincts, but Holy Hell...

Gotta like that if you are Whitmer....

E Day vote margin not where it needs to be for Dems, as far as I can tell

The Dane numbers (if coupled with high turnout in Milwaukee) are a necessity, but I don't know if it's enough based on how the rest of the state votes / how turnout is. Similar question as Pennsylvania, but Wisconsin was also much closer in 2020. Right now, Nevada seems pretty shaky, Ralston's winning streak might be up.

I'll take the under, unfortunately...

Wow

I'm not sure Florida is a great state to extrapolate nationally to in this cycle.

One part of 2020 that feels underdiscussed is how college campuses are back in session in person for the most part... wonder how that affects turnout in college communities.

That's definitely true in Philadelphia, which is gonna be an 80-20 type breakdown. It wasn't gonna all be mail ballots there.

It's hard to put into too much context without knowing what turnout is like in other parts of the Commonwealth, but Philly showing up and voting at similar to 2018 levels is important. But have to see if it continues into the day

Not that I expect Texas to be very close, but I would be surprised if it weren't closer than Florida this cycle.

She was down by a fraction of a percent in a Trafalger poll this AM.... but it's Trafalger, and they did overestimate Trump last cycle in MI

They are invested in the narrative, for sure. We'll know one way or another after tonight.

I'm not sure that starting from a conclusion and working backward is the most sound methodology when making race predictions. The background here being that they put Nevada into the blue column and, apparently, had to move PA to red to keep R number greater than 50. The Rs have a pretty good shot at winning the Senate, but forecasters in this cycle are making some weird decisions at times, and seemingly based on very little data. Or less than one would expect them to have.

I haven't been following Michigan closely, but my prior would be that Whitmer is gonna outrun most of the rest of the D ticket. So if she loses, they all lose IMO. Definitely can see Slotkin losing, although that's a house race and independent of state races.

The poll is probably an outlier, but it wouldn't be the first time this season where an outlet wrote an article looking to dismiss its own polling result. Kind of bizarre tbh