mtutiger

Mastriano would be much worse if he were to get there, I agree. I think his candidacy would be much more potent if he were doing the things that he needs to do to compete, similar to what Lake has done in AZ. From what I've read, he's done little in terms of spending money or on ads, hasn't reached out to swing constituencies and has spent most of the time with base voters, hasn't done a lot of independent media. He was also deprived of institutional support in a way that Lake wasn't as well. Of course, Shapiro being such a strong candidate is part of the equation as well, but Lake kinda stands as a good example of how much more threatening Mastriano could have been in terms of his odds of winning had a few factors gone a different way.

I'd be curious to see the numbers, but on eye test, Avila definitely seemed less active on the waiver wire than others, particularly in 2022 when the hitting was so bad.

I'd put Kari Lake over Doug Mastriano because I really do believe he's not going to win at this point. I go back and forth on Walker/Oz, they are both celebrity grifters who are solely relying on their name and popularity to get the job and have shown little interest in the actual work of the Senate. Would probably lean Walker though, but can see arguments for Oz.

This is a good point, and given his extensive time with the Cubs, I don't know how you can evaluate him solely on his time with the Giants. Theo actually vouched for him when he was hired. I would also argue that his time with the Giants wasn't a failure either even though the results weren't there this year.

I do agree with this, although my point about Rural MI was more outside of the counties around Lake Michigan.

In an era where the political geography is pretty bad for Democrats, Wisconsin is probably the worst state for it. Theoretically you could squeeze a few more votes out of Milwaukee if the suburban counties around them would start acting more like Oakland or the collar counties around Philly, but the trends just about everywhere else are pretty grim.

The flip side to that is that there is more room to fall in Michigan for Ds in rural areas as well compared to PA.... trends away from them are likely to continue in rural areas. Which keeps the state close. That said, those trends are counteracted a lot by trends in SE and W MI. Particularly with depopulation in rural areas.

It's an interesting comparison. Minnesota has a lot more more college educated whites than Michigan, but Michigan has more AAs and maybe that cancels out some. Where the differences between MI and PA/WI present themselves imo, particularly WI, it has a lot more mid-sized cities that tend to vote Democratic, it has Grand Rapids/WMI, which likely will continue to drift left over time due to the high preponderance of college educated whites and economic growth, and increasingly folks who are settling/retiring along Lake Michigan/NW Michigan who bring their politics with them. Minnesota is further left of Michigan, but I do for sure believe that Michigan is the most blue leaning of the 2016 Blue Wall States that flipped.

I get it, just not trying to get out over my skis on this election, especially after 2020 went down. People still need to go out and vote. FWIW, Michigan does have the potential of being a bright spot for Dems this year IMO.

It really comes down to standard midterm dynamics and the fact that recent polling misses have tended to overstate Dem support. I'd love to think that they could hold both chambers, but I don't see it happening. Having said that, on the latter point, one wonders if the conventional wisdom is becoming a little too baked-in at this point. And what the reaction would be if there was, in fact, a polling miss that overstated GOP support. I don't consider it likely, but it would be fun to consider on Earth 2.0

There have been changes to election administration in some of the 2020 contested states.... Pennsylvania can now start counting mail ballots at 7 am ED and continue non-stop and Wisconsin has made changes to allow counting on ED as well, according to 538. My guess is that PA will go beyond ED, but if it does it would be more like 1-2 days afterward, not 10 days.

The House looks gone and the Senate looks like a dead heat from where I'm sitting. Pennsylvania is the most fascinating one to me.... Fetterman was basically declared dead by the press after his debate, and yet he really hasn't lost much, if any, ground in any polling. Pennsylvania is also a case where the lack of a good Republican candidate for Governor may be an obstacle for Oz as well, given that he could lose by upwards of 10 or more.... split ticket voting will have to make a pretty big resurgence for him to win one would think.

This sounds right, just from the press reports at the time it seemed more like a lateral move with an additional title (AGM) handed out (maybe I'm wrong tho). Which logically would suggest the Tigers had to make it worth his while.

They fell slightly below league average in payroll during the 2022 season. Spending almost the same as the team that went ape shit signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. So I wouldn't say they were "low payroll" in 2022. The fact that the payroll increased as it did, even if folks didn't like who they signed, suggests to me that he will spend to a degree

To plays DA a bit, Dombrowski was fairly active on the free agent / trade market market in the 2003/2004 offseason and did pick up some value.... including Pudge, although that was a bit of a unique circumstance. Rondell White was decent pickup, and the Carlos Guillen trade as well. Harris will have to be creative, but I don't know that it's impossible either.

I never indicated that you "believed" that would happen. Just saying that the "suggestion" or "distinct possibility" or what have you isn't something that is likely to happen imo. YMMV

We also need to see what the new PBO does and how he approaches things. There's no doubt that when he was interviewed, discussions about payroll and resources came up. And he left a really good organization to take this job, which would suggest that he believes that he will have the resources he feels he needs to implement his vision, which one assumes involves building a club that can win a ring.

Your initial post suggested that Chris I may want to be like the Rays, which I assume includes in terms of payroll. Until we see him spend like the Rays, not sure why anyone would be convinced that's a possibility. Particularly following an offseason where they did spend money (unlike the Rays, Pirates, Guardians, etc.) That doesn't mean he'll spend like the Dodgers either, but they have a payroll that's falls in the mid range at the moment, slightly below the league average. I don't see that changing any time soon.

There are a lot of reasons to be concerned with Pizza Jr., but I would be surprised if the level of payroll was reduced much from where it currently sits. The signings last offseason, inadequate as they were seen by the fans, wouldn't have happened otherwise.

It would be really nice if they replaced the Castros and Reyes with players who could actually push some of the starters for playing time if the starters in question aren't pulling their weight. Probably not so much with Javy because of his long term deal, but Candy/Schoop maybe need to feel the heat a little bit if they are brought back.

We can already see the folks invested in this not being the Occam's Razor outcome are now pivoting from the wild conspiracy theories (now disproven with more information) to mental illness as an explanation. Which, of course, mental illness / political violence aren't an either / or proposition in a case like this.... especially in an environment with so much many politicians engaging with overheated rhetoric and peddling conspiracy theories.

Sure sounds like this violence was politically motivated from where I'm sitting.

Garver makes a lot of sense, he's definitely odd man out for the Rangers. Particularly if they plan on using Sam Huff at catcher (versus moving him to another position). I don't have a great sense of his defense and game calling though....