mtutiger

Law is really good at what he does, but when you are a national figure covering 30 teams, it's fair to question how much his finger is on the pulse of the micro moves the Tigers have made.

Seems like a good hire... I wonder if he bumps Juan Nieves or if he comes on as an additional member of the coaching staff

There are teams included in rumors and rumblings this year, such as the Dodgers, Cubs, Mariners, and Orioles (it makes more sense than you think!), who were not players for Correa last offseason. That's for starters. There will be competition for his services... and just as the fact that people "assume" the other shortstops not named Correa will resign and that assumption may not hold, one shouldn't assume there won't be a market for Correa as well. I know that it will be an unsatisfactory answer, but it looks like a pipe dream to me for this team in this situation

He can still win, but he always has a knack for reminding folks he isn't from the Commonwealth

I'm probably more worried about Nevada than either Georgia or Arizona tbh. I agree with you on PA; Fetterman (partly for reasons outside of his control) has had issues as a candidate, but Oz has terrible favorables and isnt a good candidate in how own right *and* he's sharing a ballot with Mastriano. It'll be close, but I think Fetterman wins. I get why these guys are inclined to caveat everything, people have been hard on the polling/prognosticating industry the past few years. Sometimes without reason. But the constant caveating (based on conventional wisdom, what others are thinking or showing) is how people fall into groupthink as well, and that isn't necessarily a good thing if you are in the business of figuring out public opinion.

My problem with all of it is that nobody seems to want to stand behind their work... You have Nate Cohn at the NYT commissioning polls showing a relative neutral environment (House polls in KS, NM, NV, Senate polls in PA, NV, AZ, WI) and the writeups are about how they may all be wrong. You have RCP building a model which deducts share based on previous polling misses in the last three cycles, yet still is willing to project a different result than what the model shows (see MI Gov). And then you have Nate Silver, who built a website based on modeling this stuff yet basically seems more interested in punditry and, similar to Cohn, looks for reasons to doubt his own work. None of this matters obviously, Tuesday will come and go and very little that these guys do or don't do will change any of it. But the lack of spine to stand behind their work is kind of pathetic IMO.

I think it will be a Red House, dont know on what the gains will be. 15-30ish? 50/50 Senate is my guess. Some states will be better or worse than others based on geography, individual situations.

I stopped reading or following 538 after the last election, and I doubt I'm less informed for it

For context, this is potentially a rerun of the Kentucky Governor's race in 2019. Stitt has pissed off the tribes and has leaned hard into vouchers which has had a sizable impact in Rural OK school districts. Schools north of the border had challenges before he became Governor, to be clear, but we are now in a world where a number of districts in the rural part of the Oklahoma are now only offering classes four days per week out of necessity. If Hofmeister wins (or even comes close) and it is an otherwise not great night for Ds, there may be a lesson to come out of Oklahoma and how to appeal to the broader group cross section of voters.

I mean, Trafalgar put out polls that were off by over 15 points in the California Recall and have thus far lived to see the other side.

Not sure why I should care what some guy named Jimmy Dore thinks about any subject. It's nothing personal to him, but it's no different than how one feels about cable news and its pundits I could easily get the same kind of analysis sitting down at a local bar and talking to a stranger most likely. And it'd be more authentic because he wouldn't be monetizing it.

And that the 1st Amendment had a clause within it that insulates oneself from the consequences of speech. (It does not) Elon Musk or Josh Holmes or whoever all have the right to free speech. And because of the same 1st Amendment, the rest of us all have the right to call them out, or to not do business with them, etc. Same with advertisers. At its most basic, it's just a reaction to the change of culture. And that much of it doesn't have much use for their vision of the world.

Huh, I believe I missed the part of the Constitution where is says that corporations are required to advertise on Twitter

Interesting phrasing of the Q

I dont know how easy it is to rely solely on buying up local ad spots during a World Series game. I've watched enough of them to know there aren't many of them between Innings 1-9, and given this is Pennsylvania (ie. Ground Zero for the Midterms), scarcity is probably an issue. Buying nationally costs more, but puts your spot in the middle of a game when people are watching. Also probably allows him to hit every market in the state versus buying local ad time in individual markets. He's not hurting for campaign cash, good move imo

Just for PA. The game drew a 25.9 rating/50 share in the Philly Media Market... even though the ad spot was nationally broadcast, I do think it was more aimed at his constituents watching the game up in Philly

That definitely doesn't make any sense. Whatever the merits of the model, but if you have a model that is designed to deduct margin from the D candidate based on past polling error and at the end it says Whitmer is ahead, it's kinda hackish to project it as a GOP Pickup.

This post is indicative of it, but RCP has been interesting this cycle, where it goes in and applied an adjustment factor based on the error in previous cycles. (not to mention how arbitrary they are in terms of what polls they will include in their average, but that's another subject) I think it's fair for outlets covering the race to try different things to try to come to the most accurate result, but then again, it's another example of how Constitutional it is within the pundit/polling world to believe that every election going forward will underestimate GOP vote share. It's certainly a defensible prior going into 2022 believing that polling will again underestimate GOP vote share, but it seems risky to me to lean in this hard on that prior.

There's a difference between reading Mein Kampf to educate oneself on the Hitler and, to paraphrase Tater, to read it and relate to it on a personal level. I have no way of knowing whether Mastriano relates to it on a personal level, but it is undeniable that he has engaged in some light anti-semitism during his campaign.

A lot of it comes down to geography as well.... the PA Senate race is gonna come down to Southeast Pennsylvania (ie. Philly, Lehigh Valley, etc.), and the market share that game drew last night was likely massive in those markets. Money well spent.

Herschel Walker wouldn't know the "family unit" if it fell out of the sky and hit him in the head

It was really apparent this year imo... even with the few waiver claims they did make it was apparent. Brendon Davis is a good example, not that I expected much from him, but they basically waited until the final series of the year to bring him up, despite carrying Kody Clemens (and his .150 batting average) for half the season. I get that fans tend to fall in love with guys in AAA when things aren't going well and that those guys may be in AAA for a reason, but to me, it seems inexcusable not to churn the roster a bit more when they were as bad as they were in 2022.

We call this "The Full Herschel"

My personal theory on this is that he was always afraid of quitting on guys developed internally or that he acquired. Being active on the waiver wire requires taking risks with DFAs, which he was never keen on doing. (Also in keeping with how he handled the trade deadline toward the end of his tenure as well). I remember arguing about this with some folks sometime before Kerry C's contract was purchased, but given the fact that the offense was historically bad this year, it was mind blowing how few transactions or waiver wire pickups they explored among position players. It always seemed like they were content on shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic despite the historically bad offensive output.

Obviously want to see her lose, but she's gonna be a pain in the *** if Hobbs wins as well. Especially since Hobbs is SoS