mtutiger

Chances of a majority for Ds now slim without Boebert's seat. But it could narrow more still depending on how the votes are counted

Leftover Pueblo Co votes were not slanted as expected.

Boobert likely to pull it out by a whisker... Damn

Jesus

Still measuring those drapes when the Chamber hasn't even been called yet. It would be on brand for this to blow up on him lol

Definitely gives off cult leader vibes and seems like one who wants to control her image

Victor was a bit of a surprise lol

Huge implications, especially for the Gov race. Hobbs may still have a chance

Unbelievable we are even talking about this.

Having Allan West on to do a political autopsy is like hiring Dr. Nick from The Simpsons to do an actual autopsy

In part due to their relative electoral success on Tuesday, particularly in Gov races, I am actually encouraged and feel that they have some compelling candidates to go along with Harris (who I assume would be the front runner). Whitmer, Shapiro, Jared Polis (who basically was the Ron DeSantis of Colorado on Tuesday) all would be strong candidates. And honestly, I'd prefer that they start elevating Governors to run in these elections.... having executive experience matters. The difficulty with the Democratic Party, as always, is who can turn out the largest percentage part of the base, which is African Americans... it's a big piece of why Biden won the nomination in 2020 and anyone wishing to succeed him will need to make inroads with that community.

Especially RCP, given that they purport to be a serious outfit and have (despite having conservative political leanings) purportedly serious people running it. Even in this cycle I would look at them based on their track record. But I said it before the election: some of the decisions that they made, about which polls they would include, but also in how they rated races (ie. tossup, leaning states, etc.), how they deducted poll margin based on previous cycle misses, how they made projections that didn't even match their average (Michigan Gov for example).... these were all decisions that were, sooner or later, bound to backfire. The polling industry in and of itself has, and continues to have, problems.... but elaborately unskewing polls doesn't work either. It didn't in 2012, nor did it this cycle.

One story from this election Another one as well... Have to wait for the west coast to come in, but it would appear that the Ds sort of defied political gravity with how they performed in this cycle. And that, given some Rs running unopposed in Congressional races as well as poor performances in specific states (ie. a "red wave" in Florida and New York and few other places), the gap between the popular vote and House outcome is probably gonna be a lot more narrow than we've been accustomed to in the Trump years.

There are a few people who deserve some mea culpas.... Moore, but also Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg as well, who were kinda validated in this cycle (albeit after having issues last cycle)

Isn't that... what politicians are supposed to do??? Deliver on policy?

Listening in on CNN for a bit, they still remain surprised that Oz's residency issue actually mattered. lol

Fun fact: Whitmer has close to double the margin as Kathy Hochul does in New York. NY shaping up to be the mini-FL of the night. Relatively low turnout

Yeah, she's done. Surprise of the night

Will be interesting to see whether it's 50-49 or 49-50 going into it and what the various dynamics will be. If you're an R, you're hoping Laxalt can pull it off in Nevada, because I can't imagine a 50-49 field going into a runoff is gonna do wonders for inspiring voters to turn out for ol' Herschel

My guess is that Lake probably pulls it out, but it'll only be her and not the crazy SoS candidate, whose race is currently tracking closely with Kelly. Kari Lake is still as dangerous as I said she was a few days ago, but if she's one of (if not the only) one that slips through among state races, I think that does defang her a bit.

Holy hell

It hasn't been called, but she made up significantly more ground in RCV during her Special Election race a few months ago versus where she sits at 47.2% (in a race involving the same candidates), so it's fair to assume she's in a solid spot.

Sure, but it was evident in the polling that he'd be in that range. Not a surprise. My issue is that a lot of really smart people didn't look at the fundamentals and went completely off their gut on this race. And look silly a day later.

In retrospect, there was a ton of irresponsibility by the political press this cycle in how certain races were covered. But for my money, the PA Senate Race takes the cake. When you get right down to it, the fundamentals really were never there for Oz, and the analysis throughout was buttressed by very little data. And it starts with the candidate himself - they spent a lot of time highlighting Fetterman's flaws (particularly after his stroke), but never considered that a candidate with 50+% disapproval numbers was gonna have an extremely difficult time beating a candidate with a positive approval rating. It should cause introspection, but I'm sure it won't.