mtutiger

Notable in that UAE is one of the three Security Council abstainers....

My guess would be a combination of things: This is the third time this is happening (IOW, a pattern has been established), and there is a lot of concern, particularly in Eastern Europe, that this will continue beyond Ukraine and into NATO countries if left without response Whereas you could make the case that the invaded populations in Crimea or the separatist parts of Georgia may have viewed invasion as liberation, it appears that there is little to no support domestically in Ukraine for the invasion that is currently taking place.... and it's probable that this extends into the Russian speaking regions of the country as well. Ukraine as a whole is much larger (and more strategically important) than either Crimea or Georgia There are counter viewpoints that would push back on each of these points (Mearsheimer, as buddha has shared, has a different view on what Russia's aims are wrt the first point), but these are all distinctions I see.

It's probably intended more for domestic consumption, although I do think he would obviously take the world where he invades without any loss of benefits.

Exactly, this is the old playbook.... when he invaded Georgia and Crimea, the world largely moved on. Like then, he wants his cake and eat it too. The problem here for Vlad is that the breadth and depth of these sanctions are going to be extremely hard to reverse in full. I don't think the old playbook is gonna be all that effective now because the situation is a lot different.

lol

I'm trying not to react too much not knowing what the actual risk level is... but Goddammit, a firefight at a nuclear power plant is pretty fricken concerning

oh no anyway....

The French appear to be shorting Mearsheimer's hypothesis about Putin's aims

Yet another flag vessel impacted by Russian aggression

This write up is really fascinating. The sanctions almost seem like the foreign policy equivalent to the SMU Football Death Penalty.

Ceauşescu still seems like the best model. Leader to dead in less than 96 hours

Insane

Yeah, it leans R but probably more like 65/35, not 90/10. Related, iirc, but some of the precincts with the decent swings away from Trump 2016-2020 (per the NYT precinct map) are places with military bases. Places like Fort Bliss, Fort Sill, Fort Hood, etc.

I'm apparently out of touch, did not realize that there were such things as $600 million dollar yachts.

He was asked about it and, again, seemed to set up a comparison. Despite this situation being significantly different, both in terms of who is the aggressor here as well as our actual level of involvement. I'll concede that he may not make a judgment on whether Ukraine has the right But it must be nice to sit a cushy office in Chicago and tell those Ukrainians what's best for them. Despite the fact that they have a lot more skin in the game than he (or any of us) do.

Again, Mearsheimer spends a great deal of time drawing comparisons to Iraq, a country we invaded and attempted to install a democracy despite no real evidence it was seeking one, and Ukraine, a country that, upon independence in 1991, that has attempted on it's own volition to build democratic institutions. And however flawed the process has been, they have continued working at it and clearly see that as their way forward. And the reality, as we are now seeing in this current conflict, is that the Ukrainians were never going to see themselves as potted plants who don't have agency. After watching Mearsheimer's comments and reading this interview, I am no clearer as to why that is the fault of the United States or why Ukrainians shouldn't have a say in their own self-determination.

I still can't emphasize enough the first impeachment. One simply cannot square the disdain that he showed for the safety, security or right of self-determination of Ukraine (weaponizing the weapons they are currently using to defend themselves) with the idea that he would do a single thing to help and support them had this happened on his watch. Without being made to kicking and screaming by the establishment, anyway Putin would have been well aware of this and, if anything, would have liked the playing field even more IMO.

Lest we forget, Trump got himself impeached the first time for blackmailing Zelensky with the same javelins they are currently using to defend themselves. That alone tells me everything I need to know.

I really don't think you understand Vladimir Putin very well. I'll just leave it at that, since you appear incapable of giving concrete steps or going beyond platitudes and sloganeering