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I understand.... I think point number two carries a lot less weight given the nature of these voters (Biden 2020 voters -> undecided), ideologically, they are not fellow travelers with Trump. Point number one is theoretically possible, but for Trump's campaign, it would be dangerous to rely on this happening as it is something that is out of his control and, by and large, would require some massive mistake / black swan event that would damage Harris. Your second point will matter more as we get further into the election and the battle starts to be over swing and undecided voters... as far as definition is concerned, it's honestly been shocking at how ineffective they have been at trying to define Harris, and it seems like the month between the Biden dropout and Chicago is an extremely important time for which to do it. A lot of it has to do with the fact that commercials / paid media can only do so much.... they have some ads out hitting her on the subjects you would expect them to, but they only go so far when the guy at the top can't hammer a theme and rambles about other, less effective **** when rallying (ie. culture war ****) Overall, the bigger piece that I think Crosstab Hater is getting at is understanding why pre-debate polls were showing what they were.... despite the framing of there being many Biden->Trump voters by many pundits, the polls almost always were showing Biden lagging in share among Dem voters. Which means it was all about enthusiasm, and that the voters were being lost either to the couch or to third parties. With Harris in the race, that dynamic is upended. And it's hard to see with that particular dynamic being upended how it could be attributed to an ephemeral bounce or sugar high.

Great question

This thread is probably the most cogent retelling of how we got here, from a position where Biden was down 2-3 to where Harris is now up 2-3 in national polling. And here is the upshot: People speculate about a "honeymoon", but I don't know why anyone that previously was indicating "undecided" or "third party" and is now indicating "Harris" would suddenly flip back or flip to Trump. She still has a lot of work to do, but the gains that she has made here seem mostly to be base consolidation.... beware commentators who attribute this to a "sugar high"

It's honestly shocking we aren't hearing more in the media about it given how many journalists were willing to openly speculate about dementia as well. He's been bad for a while, and he recently was nearly shot and probably (deep down) has trauma from that too. The version from the press conference or the Musk thing tonight is the best version we will get from him in the present and future... He's not getting any younger, he will not improve.

Apparently Trump's interview with Leon Musk ain't doing so hot

Crowd size discourse is annoying honestly, but this is where the impact lies; it just completely eats him up inside to see someone (far) outdrawing him

This clip is really bad performance art

This is true of Brian Kemp fwiw. He's going through the motions, standing by Trump, but the reality is that he has little reason to want Trump to win, at least as a practical political matter.

I don't think it's particularly new either... I remember saying this stuff back in November and December of last year when he started pulling ahead of Biden... Just think that Biden's own unpopularity and concerns about his age kinda buried this notion that people were wore out by this stuff. Even now, it doesn't look like 2020 out there in terms of regalia flying or hat wearing

I don't think so either, tbh, people know who he is at this point... I just think there's a general exhaustion around his schtick. It's old and he's old.

Man, how the tables have turned...

You know it's bad when GOP pollsters are pushing back on Axe's take in a poll where Trump is losing lol

It's pretty infuriating to know that, in all likelihood, the media will continue to let him slide on this stuff... Joe Biden had to leave the ticket because of concerns about his cognitive ability, there is plenty of reason to believe that 78 year old Donald Trump has as big, if not bigger, issues on this front as well.

They also played "My Heart Will Go On" which, metaphorically, seems on the nose for this moment....

Oh my goodness....

Is he OK?

It'd be impossible to pull off, but man, if they got Night 4 of the DNC moved to Soldier Field and filled it, Trump would have a stroke

What the hell is going on at the Times?

I'm not sure how widespread this is off the internet, but regarding the smears of Walz' military service record, I've seen more than a few people kinda degrade the guard (ie. "they only work two days a week, weekend warriors, barely working to cash a paycheck") to advance whatever line they are pushing. It strikes me as kinda ***** to imply that guard service is inferior (even though the commitment is different), and it doesn't seem like all that great of politics either