mtutiger

Have tried not to overread polls after 2020, but this is arguably the worst poll of the cycle for Donald Trump, I'd go as far to say.... Iowa is a state with high amount of white non-college voters and the topline suggests slippage with this group. Which also lends credence to the idea that her polling average in Wisconsin (around +3) may be real and not the phantom advantage we saw in previous election cycles. It's also reflected a lot in some of the campaign choices she is making - her and Walz are spending time in places like Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre in PA, Wausau and Superior in WI.... they apparently must be seeing something internally that suggests they can shave some margin in rural areas, and this result suggests they may be onto something. The final poll before the election tends to be the one that matters most and may yield a different result (that happened in 2020), but this one is a meaningful result regardless

Along with his VP candidate, who apparently spent his Saturday getting into Twitter fights with Zaid Jilani and Krystal Ball, the mantra is to always double down, double down. They are responsible for this... And they should be held accountable

Unacceptable

It also acts more or less as an admission that he doesn't think he can change or improve his situation through that format. Don't know that it ultimately matters a lot electorally, but it is such a damning thing.... and really not unlike the situation Biden found himself in in that his biggest liability (age) was something he couldn't ever fix.

Orange Chicken weighs in on the idea of another debate...

Setting aside how unsettling it is that he's leaning so much harder into these sorts of associations during this run, it (again) demonstrates one of the biggest risk factors for this particular run: him (and his acolytes) ability not get completely high off of their own supply. No matter how complacent or siloed one thought the Clinton 2016 run was, this is much much more egregious.

This is awful

I still think it was funny that, in the days before and around when Walz was picked, how many thought the "weird" thing had a short shelf-life. When you surround yourself with people whose entire raison d'etre is doing just this, it makes the weird thing have a long shelf life because it's just calling a spade, a spade.

Added context on the CNN poll... It was a very GOP sample

They are, generally September/October timeframe depending on where in the north one lives.... In general, the focus on geese has been very weird because hunting duck and other waterfowl is pretty common just about everywhere, especially in some really pertinent electoral states like WI/MI/PA

Very very similar to the immigration exchange.... theoretically should be easier turf, and he just didn't execute. The biggest difference though is that while she was a bit evasive on immigration (that's where she deployed the "crowd's are leaving" line), she actually went on offense there with mentioning how cozy he was with the Taliban. One day before 9/11 as well.

As far as I can tell, it isn't just Steve Inskeep saying this...

It's roughly the inverse of the June 27th debate CNN poll result... It's about as thorough a rinsing that could have been expected in our polarized country

I'm not sure that is all that helpful to Trump, particularly if it feeds a narrative about his own age and infirmity. Case in point:

I actually agree with this and partly think it's why they immediately challenged him to another debate... It's gotta be all gas no brakes going forward. More interviews, more events

...

When you're the hammer, everything looks like a nail

A longer clip of Brit Hume's comment, the beginning is worth a look as well - one of the great failings of MAGA and it's media ecosystem is the inability not to get high off of their own supply. It happened a lot in 2020 with Biden, and it's happening now with Harris in 2024 (who is more formidable IMO)

Conventional wisdom is that he probably needs another one.... but he's not the conventional candidate.

Between 9/10 and 9/11, the campaign will raise at least $100 mil I would bet.

Do Tulsi Gabbard and Matt Gaetz (ie. the braintrust) get an assist?

The other thing to look for after this debate is fundraising.... she's already pretty far ahead of him on that front, and she's likely going to make a lot more off of tonight than he will. Again, I think there going to have to make some strategic choices outside the core seven battleground states because they will have the money to do so.

It's still going to be long and hard, and you cannot assume nothing but a close race in our polarized country.... but this was a disastrous night nonetheless for Trump. And since Biden's dropped out, I don't think he's had really *any* good nights. His support is more calcified, makes sense since it's a cult.... but it's not unlike June 27th, what happened here.