mtutiger
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Everything posted by mtutiger
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The pandemic, and how each party approached campaigning, had huge impacts in 2020.... not sure how easy it is to make judgments off of that election
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The fact that they are trying (again) to push this also says a lot about how Trump's Campaign sees this race.
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People will take no comfort because of 2016, but Harris has ~$100 million more on hand with two months left. She also raised $33 mil from small dollar donors this month vs. $4 mil for Trump, another sign of enthusiasm perhaps being on her side
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As long as I don't hear Kamala Harris at the rally bragging about her crowd size, I don't think it matters.... To the the extent that it might, it's a sign of enthusiasm.... there's a lot more enthusiasm behind her than Clinton 16 or Biden 20.... and that's undoubtedly a good thing.
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This is where I'm at on the conversation... It isn't totally useless, but for the average Twitter user, it probably is
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Jesus
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Tater is right in theory, but the reality would have been catastrophic for the American economy. Particular in a year which, at the time, involved record inflation
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This is only one poll, but hasn't been the only one to show the gap between the two candidates on the economy and immigration closing. If that continues to narrow or is even close to parity on those issues on November 5th, that's a big deal.
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Devestating ad, but there is beauty is the replicability of the ad... Just sub out two or so clips and replace them focusing on another issue, get some new copy from Deputy Commander Rawls, and put it out.
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Have to rememeber as well that despite winning by a big margin, Whitmer did worse with these sorts of voters than Biden 2020 did. So much fretting over these voters, and while it isn't totally unimportant, they are around ~1% of registered voters in Michigan and the margins were likely always going to be a little worse regardless of October 7th.
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In light of new events, beginning to think this may not have been the case?
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Wow... Explains a lot
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True as well.... I will say this though... if Texas is close in the Presidential race (like, 2% win for Trump close), Cruz goes down IMO.... there will be a gap between the two races, and MC, whatever their lean, backs up what other pollsters have found on that question.
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So simple, and true
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Yeah, Beto overperformed polls in 2018 IIRC. And literally no one thought he'd finish within two.
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Settling aside lean (IDK, I can buy there being a semi close race for this seat, Cruz is that polarizing), biggest issue is vote share... The Presidential race found 50-46 Trump, this poll found a 46-45 Allred result. More undecideds, and you cannot assume they are all splitting evenly
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There's a lot of tape
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Whether he gets out or not, they need to make sure they don't let Trump off the hook... He endorsed, called him "MLK on steroids" with his campaign knowing full well that this guy had big skeletons in his closet.
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On the flipside, their standard-bearer has conditioned this party away from having any sort of shame, so they really shouldn't be surprised if he doesn't listen to them.
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There's probably a scandal somewhere in this that they are using as a pretext, but yeah, politics is afoot here.... He's a bad candidate that's dragging down everyone else running statewide, and he's sharing a ticket with Trump in a state that is a must-win. Personally, I doubt he gets out, but I've been wrong before.
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Thread... basically internal tensions / civil war within NCGOP on the last day that Robinson can withdraw with ability to replace with candidate who can earn votes under his name
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Trump has already endorsed him.... called him "Martin Luther King on steroids" even!
