Assuming it all plays out the way we imagine we might, I agree to the degree that the blame for the obstruction can be successfully laid at the feet of the Republicans and not the Senate, the White House, or other Democratic-led institutions. Sure, it would be obvious to us where the problem lies, but remember that the hard right has an entire media ecosystem that influences tens of millions of voters, so the perception of blame wins the day over actual culpability.
As for the fungibility of the debt ceiling, the idea that it’s there but not really there, we’ve gone through this threat before and they’ve always come up with a deal within a reasonable amount of time. So I don’t think we can really project what the effect of a hard fight over it that drags on for weeks, months, or a couple of years would look like—especially if the G-bonds people bought actually stop getting paid on.