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chasfh

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Everything posted by chasfh

  1. I wonder whether it’s typical to spend 30% of political campaign funds raised on additional fundraising?
  2. You are right, to the degree that his owning the car is preventing someone else from owning the same car and who would intend to drive the car more than he.
  3. That’s cool, I can appreciate that.
  4. Oh, I didn’t miss you … 😁
  5. Are these guys wrong? https://www.socscistatistics.com/pvalues/pearsondistribution.aspx
  6. I don't like being pigeon-holed into a "side". It's reductive and serves to diminish the perception of my agency. That puts me on the defensive, and I don't like the results when I reply while feeling on the defensive.
  7. Finally got around to doing this, and the result is more surprising than I imagined it could be. Not because I guessed wrong correlations on the wrong attributes, but that correlations were stronger for those attributes I probably thought would be pretty weak. I looked at the correlations of each of the 14 attributes on the Statcast cards of those pitchers who had values reported for both 2021 and 2022. As a reminder, Statcast card values are reported as a percentile versus the league—if you have the greatest strikeout percentage in the league, your percentile will be 100; if you have the worst, it will be 1; if you're dead balls average, you're a 50. Rinse and repeat thirteen more times. Here are the results: xwoba/xera 0.47 xba 0.57 xslg 0.52 xiso 0.49 xobp 0.42 brl_percent 0.38 exit_velocity 0.48 hard_hit_percent 0.37 k_percent 0.70 bb_percent 0.63 whiff_percent 0.73 fb_velocity 0.90 fb_spin 0.90 curve_spin 0.93 We could have guessed that the correlations are highest for attributes completely physically controlled by the pitcher: velocity and spin. We could also guess that outcomes more closely related to those physical attributes would also be pretty high: K%, BB%, Whiff %. What I didn't expect to see were correlations so high for the attributes related to outcomes that are influenced by luck, which is basically everything else. Particularly xba and xiso, which you would think is a strong residue of BABIP. I didn't think the correlation would be zero or anything, but I imagined they would come out more in the 0.10 to 0.20 range than they would in the 0.37 to 0.57 range. I guess I underestimated the effect that a pitcher's stuff would have on outcomes, specifically on overcoming oppositional force, and the luck of that force on as regular a basis as it does.
  8. I stopped reading here.
  9. How can this be? I have been repeatedly assured here that nobody on this forum liked Al Avila.
  10. Why do you keep focusing on numbers and ignoring the cruelty to people?
  11. Not only do they contribute to the economy by buying stuff, they also contribute to the tax base with their income and their spending.
  12. Maybe Mike Pence should name Dan Quayle as a running mate. Indiana bland.
  13. Yeah, right, I'm the one feeding into the hate for re-grounding the discussion by highlighting the cruelty that you yourself labeled "performative". I'm the problem here. It's my fault. Yeah, sure. Whatever, sport.
  14. That same TheHill article says Abbott is claiming he wasn't even involved in it. That was also implied when the article said the volunteers had "received word that Gov. Greg Abbott ...", not "received word from Gov. Greg Abbott ..." I couldn't give less of a shit that the press knew beforehand and was there. We know, we know, the mainstream fake media blah blah blah. Believe it or not, it's not about them. None of this helps the case you're apparently trying to make that Greg Abbott is a good guy doing everything by the book so he can do right by these poor people. He's obviously not, and no amount of gaslighting can convince reasonable people that he is. If nothing else, this demonstrates how much too many people in this country have come to accept this kind of cruelty as a basic American value that's reflective of Christian morals. It's sick. Merry Christmas, indeed.
  15. He already did try! I'm talking about before the fact versus attempts after the fact. I don't mean merely manipulating ordinances and whatnot to suppress turnout, which is already happening without Trump. I mean machine tampering, on-premise vote flipping and multiplication, falsifying counts after the fact, paying off courts to find in your favor in lawsuits—you know, all the things they accuse Democrats of doing.
  16. I started at the beginning, listening to each a couple of time at least, and am up to Get Behind Me Satan, but I have that on hold while I obsess over Elephant.
  17. There is no way Trump wins without stealing the election, since the people have repeatedly demonstrated that they don't want him. So yes, let Trump win the nom in as crowded a field as it will take.
  18. This excuse would make more sense if Abbott was working with governors of other states to safely transfer and onboard the immigrants. Instead, Abbott is planning it all in secret in an apparent effort to spring these poor people on these other states and catch them flat-footed for maximum effect. It's practically the very definition of "political stunt". So, please, let's not pretend this is diplomacy as usual here.
  19. Is he of that ilk? I really don't know anything else about him. Is he going to join the Kookoo Kaukus?
  20. I am unofficially obsessed with White Stripes' Elephant.
  21. My wife and I visited that a couple years ago when they had a museum reopening. It’s between 111th and 112th, and one of the exciting things I saw was a house with the same rare five-digit address number I grew up with. It’s kind of the same feeling as when you find out some person you just met shares your birthday.
  22. That’s OK, he knows that’s no real defense. He’s giving up on it already. He knows he’s totally busted. The $64 question is whether congressional Republicans are going to ignore all that and shower him with assignments anyway. I think with those clowns, it’s 50-50 either way.
  23. Meghan Markle might be similar in kind, but definitely not similar in effect.
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