Investing

[Tiger337]

I thought about investing in an energy etf about a week ago, but I decided against it.  It would have driven me crazy.  The buy and hold index funds plus lots of CDs has done well for me and keep me sane.  

[Screwball]

The popular ETFs are for the most part pretty good if you are an active trader. Stay away from the levered ones. I read a thing the other day when crude was up big, the levered ETF was getting about 60% return on the price of crude itself (we can't buy crude). Another way those things **** you over along with overnight re-balancing. 

Any ETF will have shrinkage. But so does everything else. We are up against the pigmen of wall street who live for separating us from our money, and are very good at doing so.

[Deleterious]

I'm skeptical.  I don't think tossing a little money at some out of the money calls would be the worst idea.

[Screwball]

7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I'm skeptical.  I don't think tossing a little money at some out of the money calls would be the worst idea.

Not at all.

It probably depends on who you (or anyone) follow and believe. Then again, who DO you believe? Like my point above, all this on headlines? Things are fixed? What to believe? I don't know. Wish I did. We are not alone. From WolfStreet:

Crude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds by Wolf Richter • Mar 9, 2026 • 8 Comments The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts.

I was hoping he had something about where all this might go from here, but he doesn't unless I missed it. But his point is valid.

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, Screwball said:

(we can't buy crude)

My FIL used to buy shares of well outputs. Mostly little spit things out west that did a few bbl/d/. IIRC they were a pain to unwind after he passed. 🛢️🛢️🛢️

[Screwball]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

My FIL used to buy shares of well outputs. Mostly little spit things out west that did a few bbl/d/. IIRC they were a pain to unwind after he passed. 🛢️🛢️🛢️

I would have to dig, but I have a stock certificate from the early 1900s of some energy company in West Virginia. Might have been coal. I searched and couldn't find anything. You never know...

Like I said up-thread, there were small pumps around here. Only needed maybe 500 sq/ft. close to the road. The farmer loved it too. I thought they smelled neat. 

[Deleterious]

 

[Screwball]

Markets are happy happy today. Crude (WTI) trading at the $81-82 dollar range.

Now from the what to believe or not file about the Strait;

Iran to allow only Chinese vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid escalating conflict - MSN

Iran sells lots of oil to China.

Then there is this.

Statement from Maersk;

Edited Tuesday at 05:05 PM by Screwball

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

Next month could be interesting.  You can't move a single good in this country without using gas/diesel.  Oil prices are one of the biggest drivers of inflation.  

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

 

Notice, it's not a tanker. If I can send a message without creating an environmental disaster on my coast, that might be what I do.

[gehringer_2]

59 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Next month could be interesting.  You can't move a single good in this country without using gas/diesel.  Oil prices are one of the biggest drivers of inflation.  

 

They are also 'normalizing' the 2.5 number by calling it 'expected' when the target is 2.0 or less. That you are expecting not to make progress doesn't really excuse not making progress.

[Tiger337]

On 3/9/2026 at 9:19 PM, Deleterious said:

I'm skeptical.  I don't think tossing a little money at some out of the money calls would be the worst idea.

It's OK if you know what you are doing.  For me, I dion't want it to become a habit.  I am more comfortable being a Boglehead.  

[Screwball]

Reports of ships getting blown up in the strait earlier today. WTI crude back around $93 as I type this. Brent around $98 and change. Pump price hitting the streets here in Cornhole. I'm sure other places too. The CPI report was not good, and what we are seeing here won't show up in those reports until months down the road.

Nothing will get any cheaper in the near future. That doesn't even account for the supply chain disruptions. That won't end well.

Maybe they need to blow more **** up. A global depression will make things cheap again. 🙂

 

[Deleterious]

9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

It's OK if you know what you are doing.  For me, I dion't want it to become a habit.  I am more comfortable being a Boglehead.  

That was more me saying oil prices will rise again.  

[Deleterious]

 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

That was more me saying oil prices will rise again.  

Monday's Washington happy talk was an attempt to talk down prices without anything on the ground (or water if you prefer) actually changing. Today the Iranians are doing their best to remind everyone about the "nothing has changed" part.

[Screwball]

Off topic, kind of. I was doing some research on the oil shock of 1973, which was one of the times things got all ****ed up, and if there might be anything to learn for today. This could probably go in the history thread, but it fits here.

Long article by the LA Times written in Nov. 1993. 20 years after the 73 embargo. Fun to read the narrative from then.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Off topic, kind of. I was doing some research on the oil shock of 1973, which was one of the times things got all ****ed up, and if there might be anything to learn for today. This could probably go in the history thread, but it fits here.

Long article by the LA Times written in Nov. 1993. 20 years after the 73 embargo. Fun to read the narrative from then.

saw this. the interesting thing is how little they figured about the drop in the cost of renewables. In engineering school they taught you how cost scaled with equipment size, but the idea that there was predictable curve for cost of technology vs production scale of that technology wasn't on any one's bingo sheet. Today it's a well developed idea in tech engineering/forecasting with correlated parameter values for various techs.

We always knew it was true at some level - We always knew to build the engine in your Buick as a one-off would cost a hundred times what it cost GM to build a million of them per unit, but the idea that the same idea applied to technological progress as a whole, that innovation was also a function of scale, hadn't really stuck.

Edited 19 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Screwball said:

Reports of ships getting blown up in the strait earlier today. WTI crude back around $93 as I type this. Brent around $98 and change. Pump price hitting the streets here in Cornhole. I'm sure other places too. The CPI report was not good, and what we are seeing here won't show up in those reports until months down the road.

Nothing will get any cheaper in the near future. That doesn't even account for the supply chain disruptions. That won't end well.

Maybe they need to blow more **** up. A global depression will make things cheap again. 🙂

 

One of these mornings after futures slip overnight and the open is down, I expect the recent pattern of bottom feeders showing up to make a morning rally is going to break and the downside is going to get tested harder.

[Deleterious]

 

[Screwball]

11 hours ago, Screwball said:

Off topic, kind of. I was doing some research on the oil shock of 1973, which was one of the times things got all ****ed up, and if there might be anything to learn for today. This could probably go in the history thread, but it fits here.

Long article by the LA Times written in Nov. 1993. 20 years after the 73 embargo. Fun to read the narrative from then.

Apparently I forgot the link. Again from 1993 and kind of long.

The Oil Crisis 20 Years Later : The World’s Petroleum Tiger has Been Tamed--for Now.

[Screwball]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

One of these mornings after futures slip overnight and the open is down, I expect the recent pattern of bottom feeders showing up to make a morning rally is going to break and the downside is going to get tested harder.

I'm more worried about a mushroom cloud due to the crazy ****ing people running our world.