Investing

[Deleterious]

Stop talking about it and do it.

Curious to see who makes up this coalition.  

 

[Hongbit]

11 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Stop talking about it and do it.

Curious to see who makes up this coalition.  

 

Two weeks

[Screwball]

WTI crude gapped up at open to $102.44, but has since closed the gap at is trading at $99. 

The first casualty of war is the truth. BS only goes so far.

[Deleterious]

You don't say.

 

[Screwball]

Funny, I was just looking at this. Chart porn incoming. WTI crude over the last week. After the big gap up on Sunday night it has went the other way. This is the tape says - that's all that matters. Doesn't have to make sense.

So we look at the support/resistance levels. Once the euphoria was over on the weekend it has been bouncing around the $92/93 level after taking a dip to the $80 range for a few days. Now back to $95.65 as I type this.

Pump prices are already going up here in Cornhole. Small sample size. 

Brent is higher. Wall Street is no doubt making money on arbing the spread.

Edited yesterday at 01:21 AM by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

Fed meets tomorrow. 

So I basically go with the monetarists - if the Fed causes an increase in the supply of money in excess of the rate of purchasing in the economy, all things being equal,  the value of money relative to goods falls - you have inflation. If they squeeze the money supply too hard, you would get the opposite (if that ever happened). 

So along comes a blockade of oil supplies. Everyone says the fed may be faced with tightening because the increased price of oil will cause prices to rise and they must fight inflation. But from the standpoint of monetary policy, shouldn't there be a difference between an increase in prices when intrinsic product values are constant, vs an increase in prices because it actually has become more expensive in real terms to produce them? It seem like if the Fed becomes restrictive in the face of oil driven price increases, they are doing so to preserve a fictional price level in the face of things costing more to produce in real terms- which has to increase any forces driving toward recession. 

Maybe we'll get lucky and they at least get somewhat close to right. They way overshot what was needed for the Pandemic, which I can cut a little slack for since nobody knew how bad the future might be at the time. They'll probably err on the loose side again which may be closer to correct this time.

(Unfortunately the overshoot after 2020 probably determined an election). 

Edited 16 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

The Fed can only monetize what .gov spends.

I'll dismiss all the other word salad and say they are not cutting rates today.

Unrelated, kind of, crude it back to $98 and change for WTI. Brent over $100.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

The Fed can only monetize what .gov spends.

I'll dismiss all the other word salad and say they are not cutting rates today.

Unrelated, kind of, crude it back to $98 and change for WTI. Brent over $100.

Wholesale prices up between 5% and 8% per annum depending on which basket, Brent near almost $110 as I type.

The fed has more leeway than just fiscal spending to work with, not that that isn't plenty. They can buy or sell other securities, such as mortgage bonds, which gives them plenty of additional space to manipulate things. And monetization isn't their only tool. Control of short term rates drives interbank lending volume which also drives the number of dollars available in the system. 

Edited 4 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]