Investing

[Deleterious]

Stop talking about it and do it.

Curious to see who makes up this coalition.  

 

[Hongbit]

11 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Stop talking about it and do it.

Curious to see who makes up this coalition.  

 

Two weeks

[Screwball]

WTI crude gapped up at open to $102.44, but has since closed the gap at is trading at $99. 

The first casualty of war is the truth. BS only goes so far.

[Deleterious]

You don't say.

 

[Screwball]

Funny, I was just looking at this. Chart porn incoming. WTI crude over the last week. After the big gap up on Sunday night it has went the other way. This is the tape says - that's all that matters. Doesn't have to make sense.

So we look at the support/resistance levels. Once the euphoria was over on the weekend it has been bouncing around the $92/93 level after taking a dip to the $80 range for a few days. Now back to $95.65 as I type this.

Pump prices are already going up here in Cornhole. Small sample size. 

Brent is higher. Wall Street is no doubt making money on arbing the spread.

Edited Tuesday at 01:21 AM by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

Fed meets tomorrow. 

So I basically go with the monetarists - if the Fed causes an increase in the supply of money in excess of the rate of purchasing in the economy, all things being equal,  the value of money relative to goods falls - you have inflation. If they squeeze the money supply too hard, you would get the opposite (if that ever happened). 

So along comes a blockade of oil supplies. Everyone says the fed may be faced with tightening because the increased price of oil will cause prices to rise and they must fight inflation. But from the standpoint of monetary policy, shouldn't there be a difference between an increase in prices when intrinsic product values are constant, vs an increase in prices because it actually has become more expensive in real terms to produce them? It seem like if the Fed becomes restrictive in the face of oil driven price increases, they are doing so to preserve a fictional price level in the face of things costing more to produce in real terms- which has to increase any forces driving toward recession. 

Maybe we'll get lucky and they at least get somewhat close to right. They way overshot what was needed for the Pandemic, which I can cut a little slack for since nobody knew how bad the future might be at the time. They'll probably err on the loose side again which may be closer to correct this time.

(Unfortunately the overshoot after 2020 probably determined an election). 

Edited Wednesday at 03:23 AM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

The Fed can only monetize what .gov spends.

I'll dismiss all the other word salad and say they are not cutting rates today.

Unrelated, kind of, crude it back to $98 and change for WTI. Brent over $100.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

The Fed can only monetize what .gov spends.

I'll dismiss all the other word salad and say they are not cutting rates today.

Unrelated, kind of, crude it back to $98 and change for WTI. Brent over $100.

Wholesale prices up between 5% and 8% per annum depending on which basket, Brent near almost $110 as I type.

The fed has more leeway than just fiscal spending to work with, not that that isn't plenty. They can buy or sell other securities, such as mortgage bonds, which gives them plenty of additional space to manipulate things. And monetization isn't their only tool. Control of short term rates drives interbank lending volume which also drives the number of dollars available in the system. 

Edited Wednesday at 03:41 PM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

Reports of a few wallets making large bets on this.

 

[Deleterious]

Gold is doing a thing.  Down about 10% the past day or so.

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Gold is doing a thing.  Down about 10% the past day or so.

So is Silver.

WTI crude around $96. Of note, Natty gas up about 5% but nowhere near where it was in January. It will be interesting to watch that price since they are blowing up gas installations in the Middle East. It's been reported Europe prices have jumped significantly. Have to wait and see what happens here.

For those who energy shop, and did so recently to lock in pricing, you might be a happy camper in the next few months. 

[Screwball]

6 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Reports of a few wallets making large bets on this.

 

Some think this is AI. There have been reports BN is dead. Then some video's came out with him in them proving he is alive. This was one of them. Some think they are fake. The first casualty of war is the truth.

Who knows in today's world.

Quote

“When everything Americans believe is false, our misinformation campaign will be complete.”
― William Casey CIA Agent Head under Regan

Yea no ****. Why would you believe any of these assholes? Ever?

[Screwball]

This is absolutely insane:

The world is quite literally facing what appears to be the largest energy crisis in history.

US crude oil futures are now trading at a $20+/barrel DISCOUNT to Brent, also one of the largest on record. As the US increases production and taps into reserves, the EU is facing a full out energy crisis.

European natural gas prices are up another +30% today and physical crude oil prices in Oman and elsewhere are trading at $150+/barrel. In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~70%, or ~$70+ per barrel.

It has become so bad for Europe that the market is now pricing-in 2 interest rate HIKES in 2026, even as the US removes sanctions on Russian oil.

US rate cuts in 2026 are almost entirely priced-out as a result with Core PPI inflation on PRE-WAR data rising to its highest since February 2023.

The entire global economy just took a complete 180 degree turn in 3 weeks. The next few months are going to be historic.

[Deleterious]

$13 spread on WTI to Brent right now.  Usually hovers around $5 if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

$13 spread on WTI to Brent right now.  Usually hovers around $5 if I'm not mistaken.

 

yep

[gehringer_2]

Things have climbed down a little this afternoon. The Admin put it out that the Israeli strike on Pars was against US wishes. That's proabably 100% backfill fabrication but at any rate prices are back down to Brent at $101 and WTI at $93.

[Hongbit]

College sports are dead if oil and gas prices continue to go up.  
 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

College sports are dead if oil and gas prices continue to go up.  
 

IDK about 'dead', but for sure there is going to be some buyer's remorse over setting up conferences with a lot of 4+ hr by jet trips.

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK about 'dead', but for sure there is going to be some buyer's remorse over setting up conferences with a lot of 4+ hr by jet trips.

Ludicrous Texas oil money in the NIL era means every year the Final Four and CFP will become some combination of Texas, Texas Tech, SMU, Baylor, Houston, or TCU.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Ludicrous Texas oil money in the NIL era means every year the Final Four and CFP will become some combination of Texas, Texas Tech, SMU, Baylor, Houston, or TCU.  

LOL - I suppose, but don't forget there are a couple of schools adopted by Tech Bros to broaden the field. 🙄

I seem to be done with college sports anyway. I'm not finding the rent-a-teams interesting at all. We have a group of close close friends, we're all UM alums, and they are all excited about the Tourney now - it just leaves me cold, and that's never been true before.

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - I suppose, but don't forget there are a couple of schools adopted by Tech Bros to broaden the field. 🙄

I seem to be done with college sports anyway. I'm not finding the rent-a-teams interesting at all. We have a group of close close friends, we're all UM alums, and they are all excited about the Tourney now - it just leaves me cold, and that's never been true before.

Tech bros don’t care about college sports like they do in Texas.    Texas Tech has thrown down the gauntlet already and it’s only going to get bigger and more competitive in the Lone Star state 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Tech bros don’t care about college sports like they do in Texas.    Texas Tech has thrown down the gauntlet already and it’s only going to get bigger and more competitive in the Lone Star state 

The best outcome of this kind of thing would be for about half of D-1 to just opt out of the whole thing and go back to a completely non-profit model, club based sports,  free student tickets etc. Games where nothing is on the line but school pride and a good time. Of course it won't happen, but it should. 

Edited 5 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

I'm rooting for Miami and Akron, and mid-majors in general.

Roots in Ohio and the U of Toledo.

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Tech bros don’t care about college sports like they do in Texas.    Texas Tech has thrown down the gauntlet already and it’s only going to get bigger and more competitive in the Lone Star state 

then there is Phil Knight at Oregon. I guess he's not tech but he sure bleeds "green". (tee-hee)