CMRivdogs

It was payback to Jim Clyburn who was instrumental in Biden's nomination in 2020. It was during the primaries that Bided vowed to put a black woman on the ticket

Yep, some of the least healthy, most obese people I know are folks who tend to vote MAGA. Those of us who are older and have life defining illnesses might as well just take our Soylent Green like “good citizens”

https://x.com/robynelyse/status/1854033371384390064?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw Abortion ballot measures passed (or in the case of Florida, got well over 50%. Nebraska gave workers the right to earn paid sick leave. Missouri voted to raise the minimum wage to $15. People want left-wing policies and Republican politicians, and ... that's tough.

I'm wrong here. I blanked for a moment at thought Louise Lucas was running, she's not.

And Virginia jumps right into statehouse races next year. Right now the front runners are two African American women. It should be quite interesting.

New word for the day. Kakistocracy, that is exactly what we have become. No longer the best and the brightest, that train left the station years ago. We have become the mediocre lead by the worst, and the majority loves it

Tom Nicols on Musk’s thingofajig The irony is that Biden's term wasn't a disaster. Unemployment at 4, inflation at 2.4 - America's economy the envy of the world. As I wrote - long before this election - when people think that's "bad," illiberal populism thrives on fake nostalgia. I don't think there's much she could have done differently, or any Dem, for that matter, because - as I kept saying - this was always about voters in four or five states. Most people rejected Trump again, but a few hundred thousand in a nation of 350 million can negate that. /1 The Electoral College - which I once defended as a symbol of federalism - is going to produce another minority-vote president, and that's setting up a crisis of legitimacy. American institutions can't keep producing that outcome. But that's a subject for another day. /2x

Tom Nicols on Musk’s thingofajig The irony is that Biden's term wasn't a disaster. Unemployment at 4, inflation at 2.4 - America's economy the envy of the world. As I wrote - long before this election - when people think that's "bad," illiberal populism thrives on fake nostalgia. I don't think there's much she could have done differently, or any Dem, for that matter, because - as I kept saying - this was always about voters in four or five states. Most people rejected Trump again, but a few hundred thousand in a nation of 350 million can negate that. /1 The Electoral College - which I once defended as a symbol of federalism - is going to produce another minority-vote president, and that's setting up a crisis of legitimacy. American institutions can't keep producing that outcome. But that's a subject for another day. /2x

Story of the election from the Fox News voter analysis (national): White voters: 53-43% Trump (was 55-43% Trump in 2020) Black voters: 81-15% Harris (was 91-8% Biden in 2020) Hispanic voters: 56-40% Harris (was 63-35% Biden in 2020). https://x.com/joshkraushaar/status/1854019463726633054?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw

From what I saw there was an 8 point shift from 2020, 61.5-36.5 Biden. 57-40 Harris.

From what I saw there was an 8 point shift from 2020, 61.5-36.5 Biden. 57-40 Harris.

Screw X

Per Jonathan Alter on X https://x.com/jonathanalter/status/1853949542372192489?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

They're panicking Steven Milker on the dirty bird app

Nm

GOP based pundits are already talking about the 2004 returns where Kerry jumped out to a big lead...something weird is happening https://x.com/brianklaas/status/1853930198586249451?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

https://x.com/timalberta/status/1853798353240269112?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw Tim Alberta this morning I don't think we'll see Oakland Co splits being that large, but one could hope

No drinking tonight unfortunately, wife is having knee replacement surgery tomorrow. At least she can go in tomorrow and have enough pain pills to last a few days. As a former reporter and newsroom manager she'll watch returns before heading to bed. I'll do mindless doomscrolling. In honor of the election I'm wearing my "Madison" T-Shirt quoting part of Federalist 51. "If men were angels no government would be necessary" https://x.com/mluckovichajc/status/1853548033700765961?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

My god, it actually worked for a change today

I don’t see Trump as a guy who would enjoy a pulled pork sandwich at Smithfield BBQ

More Last https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9WANjSNI-?xmt=AQGzjAmjokT80v0yFf0c_j8g-TL5Xp3PdqKHnblaklNFvw If Trump is on track to lose, he has moreincentive to declare victory tomorrow night. Work backwards from Trump’s perspective: He needs to keep his supporters bound to him and he wants to continue to own the Republican party.¹ Having spent the previous four years insisting that he won in 2020 and that he cannot lose in 2024 unless he is cheated again, conceding defeat would be taken by his supporters as a personal betrayal. So he can’t do that. Further, he has already primed his supporters to expect a stolen election after they have spent the last year being utterly confident that Trump would win. At the Madison Square Garden rally, Tucker Carlson even hung a number on Harris’s expected vote total, saying that no one should believe that she could get 85 million votes. So if the early results suggest that Harris is headed toward probable victory, I would expect Trump to come out with accusations of fraud and assertions that he won sooner rather than later. Also, Trump has to set a party line early, before any elected Republicans admit that Harris won. If Trump gets out early, then MAGA-loyal politicians will run with it, putting pressure on other Republicans down the line to either support the Big Lie 2.0 or stay silent.

JV Last in today’s Bullwerk We have three outcomes that rise to the level of not-unlikely. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 2.4 points; Trump wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 3.0 points and also wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by > 3.2 points and wins a large majority in the EC. We should be able to eliminate one of these possibilities fairly early tomorrow night. We’ll see the breakdowns on women and African-Americans in states that get results quickly. And they will take one of the two outside scenarios off the table. Are we still in coin-flip territory? As a matter of probabilities, I don’t know. But with a one-time outcome, it’s going to feel like 50-50. https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9V-nTyuUe?xmt=AQGzf-Kv69Wg0SRpvyCsnpuwi8xHP-aeeGSCNOF0loN6Gw