I think a lot of your stance here is sensible contrariness...worse still there is this.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/04/20/election-security-midterms-voting-00872694?utm_content=topic/world&utm_source=flipboard
I still think this Fall looks to be a blowout for the party that took the country to war and whose president has decided to fight a war against its own base.
The real key though is all the retirements by the incumbent party. That is a known trend identifier in politics. The other key is fundraising by individual candidates. The Dems have that action in spades. Now couple the above threat to destroy the integrity of the vote with an almost unlimited ability to fund via dark money...you might have some chaos.
ONE other thing that might cause chaos. The Virginia Gov deciding to make major gun rights changes before the April 21 (tomorrow) redistricting vote. The loony gun strokes might come out to vent their displeasure. I think the current money is on a 8-10 point win for the redistricting vote but the smoke from the gun crowd might be a cause for concern.