Motown Bombers

Perception on the economy is improving. There's usually a lag. Inflation was baked in in 2022. Republicans ran on inflation in 2022. Dems won and suddenly the border is the hot button issue now.

Ok

I think Trump's play for Minnesota in 2020 was entirely because only lost by a point in 2016 and wanted revenge. Minnesota is less industrialized and more college educated than most Midwestern states and less black than places like Michigan. That's not the trend that is favoring Republicans.

The one larger rural area, Duluth, tends to go Democratic. Minnesota is never a landslide, usually high single digits, so it's always so tempting. I think Trump wasted a lot of time in Minnesota in 2020 instead of trying to shore up Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Republicans will push to win Minnesota which hasn't been won by a Republican in over 50 years but Florida is too impossible for Democrats even though the margin in Florida was half of what it was in Minnesota.

I mean, if people are going to believe the polls that say Trump is ahead they should also believe those same polls that say Biden is gaining with older people.

Poland immediately took in 2 million Ukranian refugees. That would pretty much be all of Gaza. The Middle East doesn't want Hamas. They only support them when they attack Israel.

Fine. Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. Unfortunately I didn't know two weeks ago a publication decided Israel was not a liberal democracy for the first time in 50 years.

A lot of people have left Florida as well. Still less than 50% of those new arrivals registered as Republicans. I think Democrats also have room to retake some of the Hispanic vote. I do think Biden is going to do better than expected with the older population.

Initially it was Biden needed to call for a ceasefire. He got Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Now he needs to strong Israel into giving up. No pressure at all on Hamas.

They've literally been campaigning on the bipartisan border bill that Republicans killed. Focus groups in Wisconsin blamed Republicans.

The border was an issue in 2020. Almost all of the border states were won by Biden.

I only added the United States as a frame of reference for where the countries rank. There are a lot of countries that ranks higher than the US. Every country is evaluated on the same criteria. What I posted was a summary and the top 3 where each country ranks the lowest. You can read the full report here: Gaza Strip: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House *EDIT* I got the wrong one for the US. The US is an 83.

Israeli surrender.

Which is why it's interesting, yes.

There's also a senate election where the incumbent won by a tenth of percent.

They're also podcasters now and need to drive people to their content.

So the demand was for Biden to call for a ceasefire and now the goalposts have moved. We get it, tankies just want Israel to surrender. Polling shows most Americans support Israel. We just have a lot of loud tankies who protest Jewish hospitals.

Yeah there seems to be some sort of bitterness from some of Obama's people towards Biden. I had to quit listening to David Axelrod.

Equally interesting

Yeah but if we do 6 degrees of Joe Biden he is.

There's a lot going for Democrats in Florida. Abortion will be on the ballot. Social Security and Medicare are on the ballot in the state that depends the most on them. Obamacare is on the ballot in a state that has the most Obamacare enrollees in the country. Democrats were also handicapped last election by COVID and didn't have a strong ground game in Miami where it is crucial to have a strong ground game.

Michigan and Florida were won by the same margins and people act like Florida is basically West Virginia and unattainable and Michigan is a toss up.

Something tells me that Biden's internal polling tells him he is in better position since he's making a play for Florida and North Carolina.

Trump dismantled the US pandemic response even before COVID. Crisis are good for presidents. It was his opportunity to be a leader and he failed miserably. Bush rode 9/11 to re-election three years after it happened.