SeattleMike

This is the crux of it. Analyzing Hinch's moves at the micro level or complaining about Avila and the macro picture are fine. But they miss the reason the Tigers are 8-19. Guys who in the past hit HRs have pretty much stopped hitting HRs. How is this management's fault? In MLB, the Tigers are last in HRs, last in slugging percentage, and of course last in Rs/game. No one could have predicted this, not after signing a guy who hit 34 HRs last year and trading for another who hit 27 last year. Between the two of them they have hit 3 HRs, after 27 games! One would expect about 9-10 HR from these two at this point (allowing for the decline in HRs across the league in 2022). Even allowing for expected regression among guys like Grossman, Baddoo, Schoop, and Candy even the most pessimistic projections would have expected more than 4 HRs among this group. This is a complete power outage than makes no sense but has sure been damaging. Hopefully all of these guys will start reverting to the mean. If they do it all at once things could get fun.

Middle of the pack in BB/9. Near the bottom in K/9. Second best in HRs allowed. Screams regression. Shame the offense and starting pitching couldn't take advantage of the bullpen's 3-week stretch of smoke and mirrors.

Games like today happen. If the Tigers continue to put 13 guys on base, with some extra base power, as they did today, they will start scoring more runs. Problem hasn't necessarily been hitting with men on base it's been getting men on base and hitting for power. Maybe today is the start of something.

Didn't the Tigers already try that?

I watch the games, usually taped, on the MLB app found on Roku. It allows me to choose the audio for the broadcast. I listen to the radio broadcast( who wouldn't?), which this year is almost perfectly synched to the telecast of the game. No fiddling needed to match the two. As far as I know this option is only available through Roku. It's made my viewing experience so much better.

How can there be so much variance between DER and these other metrics? I understand DER has flaws: contact type, ballpark dimensions, who is getting the opportunities, and so forth. But I would think it provides a pretty accurate assessment of whether the defense is doing its job: y turning balls in play into outs.

I don't know how accurate team DefEff stats are, but the Tigers are 8th in the MLB in defense, according to BRef's DefEff rating. I recall this rating measures balls put into play (not HRs) that are turned into outs, which seems like a pretty decent way of evaluating the effectiveness of a team's defense. By this metric the Tigers are in the top 25%. I really believe the slow start is almost entirely due to the putrid slugging percentage, which is second to last in MLB. The Tigers are dead last in MLB in HRs. Every hitter in the lineup with a track record is off his HR pace, even when one factors in the reduction in HRs so far this year.

Are you really writing Candy off after three weeks? I trust you have been watching baseball for a while and know that slumps like this happen to several good hitters every year.

Complain about the defense I guess. But the reason the Tigers are 4 games below .500 after 16 games is the offense. I believe the Tigers have scored more than 3 runs only 5 times. More than 4 runs (the MLB average) only three times. They are second to last in HRs with a total of 8. Several of these guys have track records to suggest brighter days are ahead. Just have to wait it out.

Speaking of Paredes, he is off to a great start at TB's AAA affiliate. 155 RC+, with a 593 Slugging Percentage in 70 PAs.

Another top 5 draft pick!!!!!

Granderson was at AA when he was 22. And he only collected 200 PA before age 25. So Baddoo is certainly ahead of Granderson on the learning curve.

I'd be happy to split the difference. 270/320/475 would be solid.

Schoop is a streaky hitter as well. Maybe Baez and Schoop can alternate their hot streaks. Would give the lineup at least one dangerous hitter most of the time.

Five or six better hitters (by OPS+) than Candy per playoff team is a bit of an exaggeration. But this year most playoff teams do have 3-4 hitters better than Candy. The Yankees and Brewers are exceptions. Each only had one hitter better than Jeimer. On the flip side, the Dodgers had 7 hitters with an OPS+ better than the Tigers' best hitter. That's how you win 105 games.