MichiganCardinal

The Lions traded up 20 spots last year in the first round and didn’t surrender a future 1st. It’s a bit much to say that 365 days later they would give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, future 1st, and future 4th for a 3-spot jump. For Arizona, yes it’s possible they will drive the price up by bidding the Colts, Raiders, and/or Titans against each other, but I don’t see it. I think at least two and possibly all three of those teams would be content to stay where they are at rather than trading serious value for the 3rd QB off the board. I think it would behove the Lions to engage Arizona in discussion about the #3 pick, but if there is a bidding war and the price is even remotely close to this I don’t think you even say goodbye, you just hang up.

I want what they’re smoking if they think jumping three picks costs that much.

Has Sutton ever had a competent QB throwing to him? His best season was in 2019, with 72 receptions for 1112 yards, and that was with a combination of Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen throwing to him… I think he could be a pretty good X in a better situation. That said, he would have been worth a throwaway pick but nothing substantial, and it sounds like they wanted something substantial.

I think the Titans are willing to move on from Willis already if the opportunity presents itself. If Richardson and/or Levis are there at 6, I would definitely approve of a 6 for 11 and Simmons trade. I don’t think it would take more. Everybody knows the Titans can’t afford him. Then go and get Bijan Robinson or Quentin Johnston at 11.

The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks.

My Preferences at #6 ranked 1. Trade up 2. CJ Stroud 3. Will Anderson 4. Trade Down 5. Tyree Wilson 6. Quentin Johnston 7. Bijan Robinson 8. Peter Skoronski 9. Christian Gonzalez 10. Anybody Else

No, and I suppose if Holmes sees that in Gonzalez, of course I would be happy taking him. Though I’m not sure they would have made three free agent additions to the defensive backfield if that was the case.

I feel like taking a corner at 6 is similar to when the Lions took Okudah at 3. None of these corners seem to be the next coming of Sauce Gardner, and it would be at least a little bit of a reach in both positional and player value to take one of them there. It’s kind of the problem with being at #6 in this draft. Skoronski provides better positional value only if he projects to tackle in the future. I’m not convinced one way or the other on that. I think Holmes does something with #6 other than take a less-than top tier player. Will Anderson and maybe Tyree Wilson are the only two who I think are in that elite group both position and value wise. I think a trade up or down is very possible, even if a trade down is on its face favorable to the other team.

I would go even further. Even if he’s there in the 3rd round, I think that means that 31 other teams have written him off too. I don’t think the Lions would then be the first to say “eh worth a shot at this point”. I don’t think he will be considered at all.

How about #6, #48, and a 2024 3rd to the Cardinals for #3 and Deandre Hopkins?

The only QB I would feel very comfortable drafting in the high 1st is Stroud. If he slips to #3, I’m okay with trading up and taking him. He’s a better, younger, and more athletic version of Goff and could be a plug-and-play upgrade in 2024. It wouldn’t make much sense for 2023 though because you would figure he would come in as the QB2, not below Sudfeld.

I think signing Sudfeld increases the chances we draft a QB at some point in the draft.

I think my fondest AO24 memory from 2022 was yelling “get off the f###ing field!” at my TV in one week, and being pleasantly surprised to see him be a healthy scratch the following week.

All three of those are injury related. I think it’s more the reality of the game than it is holding them over a barrel. If they wanted to refuse a pay cut and take the release to go elsewhere, they were welcomed to, but I think they all knew their market wasn’t going to be anything worth writing home about. The market is what is going to dictate everybody’s pay. I’d rather be real with Vaitai and make him take a cut than try to be nice to everyone, pay Vaitai off a back injury like a starting tackle, and then not be able to afford Chark.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Stroud/Young/Richardson/Levis would be drafted to be a backup. They’d be drafted to be the 2024 or 2025 starter. Yes that probably means they would be a backup in 2023. But that’s what good teams do at all positions, not just QB. It can be a good thing for the first round BPA added to your team to not be a starter right away when it means you don’t have many holes. There might be a more nuanced argument to make that this is the Lions window, they should add an instant playmaker, and make a run this year at the Super Bowl. But I think the “don’t draft a backup quarterback” argument is more concerned with semantics than substantive differences of opinion.

I can see it now. The Lions go on a miraculous run to the NFC Championship Game. With a big lead at the half, Goff slips and falls in the locker room at halftime. Nate Sudfeld comes in and immediately throws four interceptions, before Dan Campbell single handedly concusses him with a clipboard… who’s that coming into the game?? 53-year-old Mark Brunell. *cue The Longest Yard Burt Reynolds tossing aside the hat and putting on the helmet, “I’m going in”

Reminds me of the first Monday Night game I went to, season opener against the Jets under Patricia’s regime. While I was in the longest line of all time for security, Sam Darnold’s first career pass was intercepted and returned for a pick six. Best play of the season, as we proceeded to get the snot kicked out of us. Feels like we lost by like 40. Stafford threw 3 or 4 picks in that game and then the backup - Matt Cassel maybe? - came in and threw another. Kind of summed up the Matt Patricia regime in a way. Terrible from start to finish, and insulting at the same time.

I think this is a very possible explanation for the weight gain. He’s a 21yo who’s coasted to this point, and he’s watching his every mistake get scrutinized by tens of millions on a daily basis. Has to be really hard. If it was just the weight gain and poor Pro Day workout, that would be one thing and I don’t think I would hold it against him. The lead-up to that though - between the report and the racing and the response - is what crosses him off in my mind. He’s just not the kind of guy I want to bet my regime on, and the guys who are are the kinds of guys you take at #6 overall. I wouldn’t put it past Seattle to take him, maybe even above Anderson. Pete Carroll doesn’t have a regime to be concerned about at this point in his career, and he’s taken “character concerns” before. If he thinks the reports are just reports and that he can get Georgia Jalen Carter, he’ll take him without a second thought. That’s not the Lions situation though.

The lynchpin in discussions for #3 surrounds the Colts. If the Raiders are in talks with the Cardinals, the Colts will certainly be given an opportunity to match…. I’m not sure Indy wants to be left with either taking the choice of either taking the 4th QB off of the board or waiting and hoping to get Hooker, McKee, or whoever else in the 2nd round. If another team is involved though, like the Lions, Seahawks, Falcons, or whoever, the Colts might be willing to let it roll and hope that team takes Anderson instead of QB#3. But the Colts will still likely have the opportunity to match, and that’s what would drive the price up.

I think you adjust the defense as needed for the talent you have. If Anderson is the pick, I would expect to see a lot of 5-1-5, blitz first / ask questions later nickel defensive looks. It highlights the strength of the defense (edge rushers) and hides the relative weakness (linebackers). On 3rd and longs, there can be occasions where they don't even put a coverage linebacker on the field, rush six, and surrender that short pass to the corner and safeties. DL: Paschal / McNeill / Cominsky (Buggs, R.Okwara) EDGE: Hutch / Anderson (Houston, C.Harris, J.Okwara) LB: Anzalone (Rodrigo, Rookie) DB: Sutton / Okudah / Gardner-Johnson / Walker / Joseph (Moseley, W.Harris, Rookie)

I'm younger than most of the group (have not been on this Earth for a playoff win). Started as a fan in the early to mid 2000s, but there wasn't much memorable then... The Shaun Rogers interception return against the Broncos in... 2006? 2007? stands out, where he clearly about took a player's head off with a face mask that didn't get called. 2008 and beyond were the more clear memories though... Orlovsky running out of the back of the end zone, drafting Stafford and then Suh, Stafford's rookie game against the Browns. One of my clearest memories of a Lions game though, from high school, was the Calvin Johnson "process of the catch" game. I remember that midway through the 4th quarter I was all excited, and my dad stood up, announced that we were going to lose, and went to the front yard to mow the lawn... He catches that pass with 20 seconds left, and I run to the front door jumping up and down, all excited to tell my dad that we had won and proven him wrong. Sliced my hand open on the frame of the door while my dad doesn't miss a beat, just kept on mowing and said "I doubt it". We couldn't afford tickets as a kid, so I didn't really start attending games until I had graduated high school... In 2015, I went to three football games... Trouble with the Snap, Rodgers Hail Mary, and Michigan getting their ass handed to them by Ohio State.

I’m only talking about rationale and sane average fans, not Bears fans.

I don’t agree on Dallas. They’re in purgatory and the Lions are better. Philly maybe. I should have at least mentioned. But they’re getting worse not better this off-season, at least so far. If they draft well, they can probably be in a position to possibly return.

I think the Lions are going to surprise a lot of people next season, when really it should be seen coming like a freight train. Perusing an Eagles board (where they were none too pleased about the loss of CJGJ), there was quite a bit of dismissiveness about the Lions. I think while the diehard Lions fans can see something really special, and different, brewing, I don’t think the average NFL fan has that same realization yet… which will make their tears all the more sweeter.