MichiganCardinal

Listening to Holmes end-of-season press conference, he just gave a pretty resounding endorsement of Jared Goff. I'm sure a Tweet will capture it better than I did in the moment but one piece I did catch was that "it's a lot easier to get worse at QB than it is to get better".

This is fair. I don't think you would get much for him, but it's also not something I would set out to do. More so if you end up taking Bijan or Gibbs that you don't need both.

I think looking at games played is a little disingenuous. I'll admit my 10 touches metric is arbitrary, but it's fair to say that Swift hasn't been a valuable asset in every game he's suited up for. A player who suits up but sits on the sideline for all but a carry or two isn't helping the team and isn't worth a long-term deal. Additionally, even beyond the merits of Swift himself, I think it's a very rare RB that ever deserves a high priced second contract. Of that 2020 class, I could see working with Jonathan Taylor, depending on the amount. Of the first three rounds from the 2019 class that is up for decisions now (Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, and Alex Mattison), I would probably try to keep Jacobs and that's it... I don't think there is anything wrong with drafting a quality RB high every 4 years or so, as long as you find the right one instead of Kerryon Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, or Mikel Leshore.

Swift's fragility and the decision about RB goes beyond next season. Swift is going to be due a contract after next year. He was a high 2nd round pick, so there is no 5th year option. He's just not a guy I would want to pay long-term unless he can show durability, and I've personally seen enough across three seasons to say we won't get there with him... 9 games of 10+ touches in 2020, 11 games in 2021, and 7 games in 2022. That's only 27 of the 50 games the Lions have played since he joined the team, and it's more likely to get worse than better as he ages. I respect the shit out of him going out there and battling through injury this year, but I just need more out of my RB1. I wouldn't love the idea of taking one at 1.6, but if you see a guy like Robinson at 1.18, or a guy like Gibbs in the late 1st or early 2nd, that can do what Swift did against Philadelphia and Washington, and do it consistently across a 17+ game season, I'm all in, 100%. Trade Swift to a team that is willing to pay him, pick up some additional draft capital, and replace him with his healthy alternative for the next 4-5 years.

I like the 6th round steals you grabbed!

3. Cheating the right way

The grass isn’t always greener on the other side. Usually it’s not. To draft over a T16 QB, you have to be willing to bet your job on a rookie. That’s a regime defining pick. The Chiefs did it, and it worked out extremely well. If the next Mahomes is sitting there at 9, yeah, go get him. I don’t see it though.

As of today, I think an edge is likely to be the best player available at 6. Possibly by a wide margin. Anderson for sure is a game wrecker that you can’t pass up. Myles Murphy and Tyree Wilson both have the opportunity to rise to that status in the coming months. It’s akin to taking Sewell at #7 despite having Decker and Vaitai under long-term deals. If he’s there, you turn in the card and don’t ask questions. I think you could put Hutch and the new edge across from one another and tell them to have fun. Meet at the quarterback. With Anderson in particular, they would likely quickly become the best edge duo in the NFL and simply take over some games. That’s not even exaggeration. You can’t double them both, and I think they would immediately help the secondary (especially in Glenn’s blitz heavy defense) by the very nature of the backfield being constantly disrupted. Houston is a good problem to have, and can be rotated in, or you can even have some unique packages for 3rd & Long situations where you send all three of them. Paschal played a decent amount of 3-tech at Kentucky, and can slide inside, especially if he puts on a bit of weight this off-season. He’s not the greatest edge rusher anyway, I think he would be complimentary. Cominsky has been a good story and a great pickup for Holmes, but I don’t think you let him stop you from from taking a 1st round athlete. He’s also another candidate to put on weight and play 3-tech. Jalen Carter may be the easiest plug-and-play, in terms of not having to adjust a ton elsewhere. If he’s not there though, there are other potential front seven game-changers that shouldn’t be passed up.

They went 13-2, that’s a bit harsh. To move the goalposts, they’re not Rutgers or Maryland where you can get away with only playing one half of football. But I think TCU is good.

At least Ruggles missed that kick.

Michigan would have played a much closer game than this absurdity. Not saying they’d have won, but if they turn the ball over 2x instead of 4x against TCU, they win. If they don’t turn it over at all, they win by 14+. They just forgot how to football in the first half. And you can’t do that against a good team.

I agree with a lot of what he said. I would take Sheila all day every day over a lot of the clowns that own NFL teams for status items, or who think they know more about football than they do.

Appreciate it! It was a fun way to stay involved. Wish I could have made one or two more for a run, but that'll be next year, otherwise I'll be on the hot seat for sure.

Perusing Twitter, it looks like the Texans have also requested DeMeco Ryans, Ejiro Evero, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon. Gannon was a close 2nd last year when they hired Smith. Ryans was a former star in Houston with ties to the organization. They've done their homework in requesting the interview with Johnson, but I doubt he's their first choice out of the gate.

MotownForums.com 😉 This was my first stab of the off-season.

I lol'd

They should be preseason Top Five.

Lol. I think we agree that we won't see him take another regular season snap in Detroit. Even if we say the three CB starters next year will be Okudah, a rookie, and a free agent though, who is your depth? Probably not AO, but if you can bring 90 players to training camp, I don't think there is harm on giving him the shot to be a backup... Hell, they gave Jarrad Davis that opportunity multiple times and he really stinks.

I would have said the same about Anzalone last year. AO was on the field last night. I think there is zero chance he's starting next season, but I think there is a good chance he is given an opportunity to make the team in training camp. And a very good chance he squanders that chance.

Mock Draft 1.1 1. Las Vegas Raiders (Trade w/ CHI): CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State 2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 3. Arizona Cardinals: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson 4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky 5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia 6. Detroit Lions (from LAR): Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama 7. Chicago Bears (Trade w/ LV): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern 8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas 9. Carolina Panthers: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech 10. New York Jets (Trade w/ PHI from NO): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida 11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State 12. Houston Texans (from CLE): Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU 13. Philadelphia Eagles (Trade w/ NYJ): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State 14. New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon 15. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama 16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State 17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland 18. Detroit Lions: Antonio Johnson, DB, Texas A&M 19. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 20. Jacksonville Jaguars: Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame 21. New York Giants: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee 22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison, WR, USC 23. Dallas Cowboys: Max Melton, CB, Rutgers 24. Los Angeles Chargers: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina 25. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama 26. Minnesota Vikings: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan 27. Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State 28. Detroit Lions (Trade w/ TB): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama 29. Kansas City Chiefs: Tuli Tuipuloto, EDGE, USC 30. Denver Broncos (from SF): Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA 31. Buffalo Bills: Henry To'oTo'o, LB, Alabama Lions 2.18 - Traded to TB in deal above 2.26 - Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa 3.18 - Jarrett Patterson, OG, Notre Dame 5.18 - Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin 6.5 (from DEN) - Jake Moody, K, Michigan 6.18 - Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia

You could be right about an OT being the riser. The Cardinals are going to be an important pick for us. If they go Anderson or Carter, one may not be there for us. If they go OT or the riser, we will be in great shape. You're correct about AO, good catch. I could see us re-signing him for a year deal depending on what we add in free agency and the draft, but I still don't think he makes the team. I'd probably prefer re-signing Mike Hughes.

I don't think he would announce a plan to go pro on Rich Eisen. Rich Eisen is a Michigan Man where you go to announce you're returning.

Disappointment over. I'm so damn excited for 2023. Couple relatively bold offseason predictions... mostly Lions, but some general ones too. - Both Glenn and Johnson get interviews, but neither gets a gig. This time. - Bears trade the #1 overall pick to the Raiders or Jets for an outrageous haul of picks. - Three QBs go in the top five, a defensive player (maybe Tyree Wilson or Myles Murphy) has a Travon Walker esque rise through the process, and one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter falls gift-wrapped into the Lions lap at #6. - Holmes makes his first real splash in free agency and signs Jamel Dean to start at corner across from Okudah. Otherwise, another quiet free agency with mostly re-signings (including Jamaal Williams, DJ Chark, and Alex Anzalone). AO24 gets cut in preseason. - Justin Jefferson sets a new standard for non-QB contracts with an extension in the ballpark of $35 million per year for 4-5 years. - D'Andre Swift gets traded to the Bills for future draft capital after the Lions take a RB high in the draft. QB Carousel: - Jared Goff restructures his deal with Detroit (again), the deal makes it clear he will be here through at least 2024. - Daniel Jones is announced as the Giants long-term plan at QB. Giants soon regret this. - Lamar Jackson gets traded to the Dolphins after Tua medically retires. Ravens sign Jimmy G and draft a QB. - Geno Smith gets franchise tagged with a chance to prove he's not a one-year wonder. - Derek Carr gets traded to the Commanders. - Rodgers retires. Green Bay tries Jordan Love out for size and signs Baker Mayfield to back him up. - Brady explores free agency before eventually retiring (again). Tampa signs Sam Darnold and enters into a quasi-rebuild in the NFC South. Head Coaching Carousel: - Panthers retain Steve Wilks - Colts hire Sean Payton (trading a 2024 1st and a 2025 3rd to the Saints) - Cardinals hire DeMeco Ryan - Broncos hire Jim Harbaugh - Texans hire Jonathan Gannon - Bill Belichick retires as coach but stays with the team, Patriots promote Jerod Mayo - Sean McVay retires, Rams promote Raheem Morris

Revising for the playoffs... Bills over Dolphins, Bengals over Ravens, Chargers over Jaguars, 49ers over Seahawks, Vikings over Giants, Bucs over Cowboys Chiefs over Chargers, Bills over Bengals, Bucs over Eagles, 49ers over Vikings Bills over Chiefs, 49ers over Bucs Bills over 49ers

9-8 and a big win against Green Bay to finish the season. Close enough. Dead on: Ravens, Browns, Lions (3) Off by 1: Patriots, Jets, Bills (kind of), Bengals (kind of), Steelers, Texans, Chargers, Commanders (8) Off by 2: Dolphins, Titans, Chiefs, Eagles, Bears, Saints (6) Off by 3: Raiders, Cowboys, Packers, Bucs, Panthers, Falcons, 49ers, Seahawks (8) Off by 4+: Jaguars, Colts, Broncos, Giants, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals (7)