MichiganCardinal

I get why teams are intrigued. If I was a Panthers or Colts fan, I would want my team interviewing Ben Johnson. At the same time, I think he would have to absolutely blow me out of the freaking water in that interview to get me to hire him this cycle. For instance, without being in the interview rooms, I think that teams are pretty stupid if they hire Ben Johnson over Jim Harbaugh. On one hand, you've got what could be a good, young, up-and-coming coach who at his best could take my team into the future of the NFL as offensive schemes go. On the other, you have a coach who has gone 44-19-1 as an NFL coach. Even Mike McDaniel, who I agree would be the closest comp to a Ben Johnson hiring, at least came from the Mike Shanahan coaching tree that produced Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, and Sean McVay, and had been with the 49ers for four years. With Ben Johnson, we are talking about a guy who has spent one year as a coordinator (two years with the regime), before which he was on a Matt Patricia coaching staff, before which he was on an Adam Gase coaching staff. There is also the question that's been discussed here, in how much of the offense is him and how much is Dan Campbell. Is a team sure they want to bet the next 2-3 years minimum on someone whose prominent resume point is as the offensive coordinator to an offensive-minded head coach, who is likely himself a finalist for COTY? My point is that hiring Ben Johnson would be a huge gamble in a billion dollar industry. Teams may be willing to take it. But with only five jobs open (so far), I think guys like DeMeco Ryans, Kellen Moore, Dan Quinn, Jim Caldwell, and Jonathan Gannon, who have gone through a few of these cycles now (if not a HC job already) and have a proven track record, have a leg up. That's even before considering teams who may be friendly to Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton. When the dust settles, I don't think he finds a match in this cycle. I do think that if the Lions meet their newfound expectations next season and win the North, both Glenn and Johnson are likely gone.

I still don’t think he goes. Even McVay was an OC for three years in Washington before he got a job. Johnson might end up a finalist somewhere but I still think an NFL ownership team will want more than one year of being an OC at a 9-8 club. I could be wrong. He’s appealing.

Not to be 'that guy', but if roles were reversed and a Lions defender shoved a Packers trainer in Lambeau on national television, for his second ejection of the season, for a very similar act........ he wouldn't get off without a suspension.

Houston can't figure out a one-year plan let alone a five or ten-year plan. It wouldn't surprise me if any one of Young/Levis/Stroud/Richardson ended up being the best QB of the class. All likely worse than Caleb Williams, but that's not a sure thing, and neither is a successful tank. Just watch Major League.

With so many in need, there are plenty of options. I could see it being the Raiders if they start a full scale tear down.

I like it. International games should be scheduled around bye weeks though the same way TNF games aren't but should be. Maybe schedule domestic neutral site games for weeks 1-3 and 16-18, international games in weeks 4-15, and have the schedule go Sunday (neutral site) -> Bye Week -> Thursday Night It would take someone smarter than me (or a computer) to figure that out logistically, but the NFL could be a lot smarter about scheduling its bye weeks. This also doesn't solve anything when the NFL ultimately cuts another preseason game and goes to 18 regular season games in the next CBA.

My intuition right now is that the trades will happen before us and at least three QBs go in the top five. Maybe even an NFL record four. I think two teams will decide a lot for us at #6: Chicago and Arizona. Chicago has basically already put their pick up for auction. I can think of seven or eight teams in the top 16 that might join in on the bidding. They should get a King's ransom for it... Houston is likely to get their QB at #2, and with Indy at #4 and Arizona entering a rebuild? Could see a trade there too. If Chicago drops below us, trading with the Raiders (7), Panthers (9), Titans (11), Jets (13), or Commanders (16) - and doesn't subsequently trade up above us again - that's one less non-QB coming off the board before us. Arizona seems in prime position to take Carter or Anderson, but they really are in disarray as a franchise right now. They're likely to trade DeAndre Hopkins this offseason - could they opt for Smith-Njigba or Quinten Williams to make Kyler happy? It wouldn't shock me. Neither would taking the top offensive lineman to try to keep Kyler healthy. Neither would something off the wall like taking Bijan Robinson. If either or both of Chicago and Arizona stay put and take the top defenders, I think that starts to open up trade possibilities as Stroud/Levis/Richardson slide. That said, there are a lot of scenarios where one of the truly elite defenders with #1 overall potential are still on the board at #6, in which case I would almost certainly stay put.

FWIW he’s not one of Holmes’ guys either. Notwithstanding the offensive line, the prior regime doesn’t exactly have a great track record of finding winning talent, and they may want to find a guy with their vision of an ideal skill set.

Obviously I want to keep Ben Johnson, but I'm not sure Dan Campbell gets enough credit for the offensive output this season, particularly with regards to Goff. The decision on play-caller wasn't even made (at least publicly) until the lead up to the opener. If I remember correctly, it was a joint effort in the preseason. Further, this offensive turnaround didn't start when Ben Johnson became OC, it started when Dan Campbell took over for Anthony Lynn, last season. I'll never forget our first win of this regime, when Jared Goff threw a buzzer beater to beat Minnesota, and instead of celebrating with ASB and his offense, he ran and bear hugged Dan Campbell. Ben Johnson is a brilliant guy. I love his creativity, and I'd love to see what he can do with a full offseason of work with Goff, Jamo, Swift, and ASB, in addition to a rookie class... At the same time, I also think that Dan Campbell is the real puppet master here, and that the offense starts with him.

They're owned by Disney. Corporate came down and said kneecapping isn't "family friendly" and to knock them down a few pegs.

In fairness to Brown, he wasn't even supposed to be the backup guard until Tommy Kraemer went down in preseason too.... also with a back injury.... Let's just wrap the offensive line in bubble wrap until September.

Vaitai's health has to be a question mark as well. He had back surgery. You don't want to restructure his deal, watch Brown walk away, and then have him re-aggravate it in training camp and he's gone again. They got burned with a back injury with Levi. Didn't seem like much in college but just kept knocking him out when he went pro. Backs are tricky things, especially when you're an interior lineman being asked to run into a brick wall every play.

Aubrey Pleasant was relying on those kicks being made as a part of his game plan. 😆

If we had a Hanson or Prater, the Bills game may have turned out completely differently. The 29-yarder he missed was the difference in the game, despite the Lions having a chance to win late. Likewise against Seattle, where Dominick Eberle (remember him??) missed two extra points. Having a reliable kicker is an absolute must in a sport where there are only 17 games, and many of them are decided by one score. I think Badgley was a satisfactory band-aid over the gaping hole at kicker, but I don't think he is any sort of long-term solution. He's not reliable past 50 yards, and when this team is really good (as soon as next year), I don't want to be faced with a 4th & 10 late in the game on the opponent's 40 where we have to make a decision to either go for it or punt. I want to put the next Evan McPherson out there and know he's going to drill that mofo through.

Long but worth it. He's rather candid at time, with just the right amount of politician speak.

I think when you’re engaging in a full scale tear down and rebuild, like Holmes needed to when taking over from Quinn, you don’t need to even think about need when you start, because everything is a need. You just need foundational pieces and talent. That’s more likely to come from a OT, Edge, and WR (his three 1sts so far) than a TE, but at the end of the day you just need to start somewhere. Two drafts later now, not that we are one piece away, but you’re able to start evaluating the roster more comprehensively. What pieces are here to stay? Where do we still need to upgrade? What do I need to worry about two seasons from now? Where do I need depth? That’s “need” to an extent, but I think it’s also just a map for building a good team.

Listening to 97.1 today someone mentioned the possibility of the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and the Lions/Chiefs game at Arrowhead being the NFL opener. This wouldn't surprise me at all. The Lions are likely going to get a lot of national love this offseason and are probably going to be the odds on favorites to win the NFC North.

Listening to Holmes end-of-season press conference, he just gave a pretty resounding endorsement of Jared Goff. I'm sure a Tweet will capture it better than I did in the moment but one piece I did catch was that "it's a lot easier to get worse at QB than it is to get better".

This is fair. I don't think you would get much for him, but it's also not something I would set out to do. More so if you end up taking Bijan or Gibbs that you don't need both.

I think looking at games played is a little disingenuous. I'll admit my 10 touches metric is arbitrary, but it's fair to say that Swift hasn't been a valuable asset in every game he's suited up for. A player who suits up but sits on the sideline for all but a carry or two isn't helping the team and isn't worth a long-term deal. Additionally, even beyond the merits of Swift himself, I think it's a very rare RB that ever deserves a high priced second contract. Of that 2020 class, I could see working with Jonathan Taylor, depending on the amount. Of the first three rounds from the 2019 class that is up for decisions now (Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, and Alex Mattison), I would probably try to keep Jacobs and that's it... I don't think there is anything wrong with drafting a quality RB high every 4 years or so, as long as you find the right one instead of Kerryon Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, or Mikel Leshore.

Swift's fragility and the decision about RB goes beyond next season. Swift is going to be due a contract after next year. He was a high 2nd round pick, so there is no 5th year option. He's just not a guy I would want to pay long-term unless he can show durability, and I've personally seen enough across three seasons to say we won't get there with him... 9 games of 10+ touches in 2020, 11 games in 2021, and 7 games in 2022. That's only 27 of the 50 games the Lions have played since he joined the team, and it's more likely to get worse than better as he ages. I respect the shit out of him going out there and battling through injury this year, but I just need more out of my RB1. I wouldn't love the idea of taking one at 1.6, but if you see a guy like Robinson at 1.18, or a guy like Gibbs in the late 1st or early 2nd, that can do what Swift did against Philadelphia and Washington, and do it consistently across a 17+ game season, I'm all in, 100%. Trade Swift to a team that is willing to pay him, pick up some additional draft capital, and replace him with his healthy alternative for the next 4-5 years.

I like the 6th round steals you grabbed!

3. Cheating the right way

The grass isn’t always greener on the other side. Usually it’s not. To draft over a T16 QB, you have to be willing to bet your job on a rookie. That’s a regime defining pick. The Chiefs did it, and it worked out extremely well. If the next Mahomes is sitting there at 9, yeah, go get him. I don’t see it though.

As of today, I think an edge is likely to be the best player available at 6. Possibly by a wide margin. Anderson for sure is a game wrecker that you can’t pass up. Myles Murphy and Tyree Wilson both have the opportunity to rise to that status in the coming months. It’s akin to taking Sewell at #7 despite having Decker and Vaitai under long-term deals. If he’s there, you turn in the card and don’t ask questions. I think you could put Hutch and the new edge across from one another and tell them to have fun. Meet at the quarterback. With Anderson in particular, they would likely quickly become the best edge duo in the NFL and simply take over some games. That’s not even exaggeration. You can’t double them both, and I think they would immediately help the secondary (especially in Glenn’s blitz heavy defense) by the very nature of the backfield being constantly disrupted. Houston is a good problem to have, and can be rotated in, or you can even have some unique packages for 3rd & Long situations where you send all three of them. Paschal played a decent amount of 3-tech at Kentucky, and can slide inside, especially if he puts on a bit of weight this off-season. He’s not the greatest edge rusher anyway, I think he would be complimentary. Cominsky has been a good story and a great pickup for Holmes, but I don’t think you let him stop you from from taking a 1st round athlete. He’s also another candidate to put on weight and play 3-tech. Jalen Carter may be the easiest plug-and-play, in terms of not having to adjust a ton elsewhere. If he’s not there though, there are other potential front seven game-changers that shouldn’t be passed up.