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Everything posted by MichiganCardinal
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Week Four: Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)
MichiganCardinal replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
Yes, but I don’t accept it as an excuse in year four. Next man up. We lost CJGJ and Houston for the season last year in week two and didn’t let it stop it from accomplishing our goals. Davenport was expected. No one was holding their breath that he was about to get through an entire season. Barnes hurts, but he’s an off-ball linebacker. I think they’ll slide Jack Campbell to Will and put Rodrigo at Sam. They’ve still got JRM behind them, and a host of depth that primarily plays special teams. Ragnow will hurt if he’s out for an extended period of time. We will see if they place him on IR, or if he’s actually week to week. It’s incredible that he posted the highest PFF score on the team while playing through that, and I wouldn’t put it past him to be back after the bye. Everyone else it sounds like is day to day. I expect a gruesome injury report tomorrow, but they can still beat this Seahawks team. -
Back to Hutch getting double teamed every down with a rotating cast of clowns like Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris opposite him. Holmes might bring someone in to replace Davenport, but it won’t be Reddick. Doesn’t for the locker room or the scheme, and we won’t want to pay him long-term. Azeez Ojulari might fit the bill.
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It's all just so subjective. The Personal Conduct Policy effectively puts Goodell in the shoes of judge, jury, and executioner, where he is expected to compare apples and oranges to assign game suspensions. Except instead of apples and oranges, it's comparing domestic violence and aggravated assault/collision causing injury amongst a bunch of millionaires who pretty much all have CTE. So instead of "fair" and "just" punishments being levied out - which is almost impossible to imagine anyway, it shouldn't be the job of the parent organization NFL to police their club's employees conduct when they're not at their job - it all comes down to making NFL owners seem like a group of people that gives a **** about anything other than lining their pockets. Spoiler alert, they don't. And so naturally, high publicity things like a video of Ray Rice knocking out his fiancée, or Deshaun Watson getting sued for dozens of sexual assault allegations, those get punished harshly. And when it's a smaller profile thing, like Rice driving away from the scene of an accident, it's swept under the rug. I've advocated before for abolishing the Personal Conduct Policy. Let individual teams devise manners to punish their individual players for off-the-field conduct. It will result in less suspensions, of course. The Steelers aren't suspending Cam Sutton eight games if they have their way. But let them answer for that. Some organizations will care more about doing right by the community, just like is already the case. And those that don't will be justifiably trashed in the public eye. But if I work for an employer, it's my employer who will decide whether to fire me if I get a DWI. Not a larger conglomerate organization that my employer works within.
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Some analytics instead of work this morning. Since 2023 week one, including playoffs, the Lions have scored 152 points in the 1st quarter (25%), 190 points in the 2nd quarter (31%), 101 points in the 3rd quarter (17%), and 163 points in the 4th quarter (27%). That would seem to spell a 3rd quarter problem. But, they have led at the half in 17 of the 23 games in that stretch (74%). In 8 of those games (35%), they have led by more than 8 points at the half. They have a good tendency to start strong out of the gate. And they don't tend to lose that lead either. In those 17 games, they are 14-3. In the 8 games with two-possession leads (including yesterday), they are 7-1. The only loss they have suffered after taking an 9+ point lead into the half was in the NFC Championship Game. Oof. That is to say though, it's not like they are often playing from behind, desperately needing third quarter points, and are just making crazy comebacks in the 4th quarter to make up for it. I think it's their strategy (which is working more often than not) to slow the game down and control the pace in the second half after getting out to a 1st half lead, and a natural consequence of that is that you're going to score less. Furthermore, when they are not leading at the half, the stats change. In those 6 games, they have scored 26 points in the 1st quarter (22%), 10 points in the 2nd quarter (9%), 35 points in the 3rd quarter (30%), and 45 points in the 4th quarter (39%). Those are different games, and call for different strategy at the half.
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We can complain about the offense if we want, it's a free country message board, but yesterday's offense was not the one that caused me anxiety like week one, or to yank hair out like week two. I think the Lions offense was playing chess yesterday. Whether you win 34-13 or 20-13, it's all one win in the standings. After the trick play put them up two scores heading into the half, they had scored a touchdown on three of their four first half drives. I think there was a conscious decision to play a little more conservatively and to trust the defense. Not to show too much of the playbook, to run the ball behind your tackles, to control TOP, and to not turn the ball over. They mostly succeeded, and ultimately they did succeed because they won the game. By the time it became a one-possession game again, there was less than 4:00 to go. The strategy changes again at that point, to just not giving the Cardinals the ball back. It's not like against the Rams where they were just constantly going three and out, they only went three and out once in the second half. Or the Bucs where they were shooting themselves in the foot in the red zone, they were 2/2 in the red zone. Now, ideally, that strategy still gets you points. Getting shut out in a half is never a good thing. And ideally, you've learned from last year that against better teams in bigger games, no lead is safe. But yesterday I really think if the defense was struggling to get stops, the attitude would have changed and they would have successfully moved the ball a little more aggressively.
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Week Four: Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)
MichiganCardinal replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
Conversation starters: 1. Debut of the all black uniforms! 2. Why are we sharing Monday Night Football with Will Levis and Skylar Thompson?!? 3. Can we please - for the love of God - beat this stupid freakin' team that we play every freakin' year??? -
vs. Setting: 09/30/2024 8:15pm EST on ABC Site: Ford Field in Detroit, MI Weather: Climate Controlled Opening Spread: Lions -4.5 All-Time Series Record: Seahawks lead, 13-5 Last Meeting: 09/17/2023, Seahawks won 37-31 in OT Seattle Seahawks (3-0) Head Coach: Mike Macdonald (1st Season: 3-0) Projected Starting QB: Geno Smith (12th Season: 33-36) Last Week: 24-3 W vs. Miami Dolphins Looking Ahead to Week #5: Sunday vs. New York Giants (1-2) Your Detroit Lions (2-1) Head Coach: Dan Campbell (4th Season: 26-27-1) Projected Starting QB: Jared Goff (9th Season: 68-51-1) Last Week: 20-13 W @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2) Looking Ahead to Week #5: BYE Elsewhere in the NFL Primetime: Cowboys @ Giants (TNF), Bills @ Ravens (SNF), Titans @ Dolphins (7:30pm MNF) 1:00pm: Saints @ Falcons, Vikings @ Packers, Bengals @ Panthers, Rams @ Bears, Jaguars @ Texans, Steelers @ Colts, Broncos @ Jets, Eagles @ Buccaneers 4:05/4:25pm: Commanders @ Cardinals, Patriots @ 49ers, Chiefs @ Chargers, Browns @ Raiders
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We saw in the first half that last year's offense did not go extinct. In the second half, they had a two-possession lead for the majority of the time they had the ball. Speaking for myself, I was never really all that worried. The defense was in total control. When those are the circumstances, why take chances? Trust the run, trust the punter, trust the defense. It worked.
