HeyAbbott

Mediocre is 1.1 WAR per year as calculated by baseball-reference. If one has an entire active roster of 1.1 WAR on average over an active roster, if one plugs that in the last iteration of Baseball- Reference's WAR formula, an average WAR of that level on an active team roster should produce an 81 win team. Over 7 seasons, Jemier, has a 7.5 WAR. In 2018 he had a 1.8 WAR, then in 2019 he collapsed to .2 WAR. I would throw out 2020 in any player evaluation due to season length. In 2021 Jemier posts a 4.1 WAR, then in 2022 he posts .8 WAR. His WAR is one good year followed by one poor year. Of his total career, 54 % of that value comes from his 2021 season. There is a great deal of risk to Jemier's production as shown by his high season to season variabilty, with one year being very strong, and the following year being poor. I have waffled on Jemier over the last 3 months because the eye test shows that there have been moments of great promise. When I look at his total output, coupled with his wide variabilty in production from year to year, I am not sad to see him gone.

Candelario is a sub mediocre player. That's all one needs to know. That's my 2 cents.

This seems to be a calculated risk to me. As for pitchers and injuries, what is the percentage of pitchers injured requiring surgery each year? I would guess 30 to 35%, or roughly one out of every three.

Agree 100 times over. We have had a six year long farewell tour. I will never mention his name again , it would be childish and snarky to use the abbreviation HWSNBN ("He who shall not be named."), so from here on out I am done discussing him. Unlike many here, this raises questions in my mind about this organization's commitment to excellence. It seems to me a truly professional Ball team would at least try some other guy rather than sticking with a sub replacement player. At least the Tigers will recoup some dollars on this leg of HWSNBN's farewell tour. I guess I am childish and snarky after all.

Well, it looks like Mike Clevinger signs with the White Sox. I don't think it is earth shattering, but kind of a so so deal.

I am a broken record on this but, every player let go by Harris had less production that what would be required to produce an average MLB team. I mourn them not. On the position side, there are only 3 players as of this date that I would label as average MLB players. I think that there are some that are currently on the 40 man roster (i.e., the additions) that will be average MLB players at some point, such as P Meadows, Lupicus, and Perez. As things stand today, we need a starting 3B, one starting OF, a starting 1B, one C, a reliable DH, and one, possibly 2 SP's, and Miggy needs to be off this team. That's a minimum of six to seven guys. Maybe the new coaching can fix at least one or 2 hitters. TORK!, if we are honest, needs 150 to 200 ABS in Toledo before he is ready. The pitching candidates might come internally from Turnbull etc., but the rest won't. I expect the roster to turn and shimmy more than a flea infested Bourbon street stripper. The organization was a bombed out mess when Harris arrived. I am going to give Harris some time before I draw conclusions. 33 games into the '24 season seems the right time to do that.

I agree with this. Also look at their pitching preferences. There is a tendency to obtain pitchers that have excellent velocity with the idea that they can be taught command and control. As I view it from memory, there are 2 franchises in the AL central, Minnesota and Cleveland, that place a higher value on command and control. Both of them seem to do a better job of having good pitching staffs. Finally, I don't think Scott Harris is anybody's fool and has no desire to play one. I don't think you think this way. I am just tossing it in to clarify my view of Scott Harris.

Harris inherited a very poorly constructed team. I think it's 2025 before we know what we have in him. Three full years on the field.

Scott Harris does not strike me as the lapdog type. The Tigers, like any other organization, need to identify, attract, obtain, train, and retain solid personnel. They carry a very poor record at identifying and training personnel as the last 40 years testify to. Because they cannot identify quality players, even when they have spent in the past, they have had woefully horrible rosters. The organization has been incredibly bad at developing the meager talent they have been able to obtain. For a sustained run as a mediocre team (81 wins) , an MLB team has to be able to add 3 position players every year to its roster to stay mediocre, say nothing of improve. The number of actual MLB position players that the farm system has produced since the early 1980's is horrid. There has been a lot of bad spending decisions in the MLB over the last 40 years as well. As I see things, Harris has made an attempt to address the glaring ineptitude that has been the Detroit Tigers. Let's see what happens. Let's see what happens on his hold 'em or fold 'em decisions. That will tell us a lot. I still think there will be some free agent siginings of note. But at least let's give the guy some time.

I think Jung might be a sample size issue. Tork! I am extremely worried about.

The difference in opinion makes for a more fun time.

Let's see what the score says: Tork! can't hit the FB. Parker can't hit the FB. Jace Jung can't hit the FB. Lupicus can't hit the FB? What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on here?

I can understand while some might want to keep Candy, assuming he significantly improves in '23. The risk one has with Candy if he significantly bests '22 numbers is that the club misses out on the benefits of such improvement.. That's very, very low. Non-tendering him was in my view of things a reasonable calculated risk and a decision I won't second guess. On the final active roster in '22 there were 3 position players with enough WAR ( offensive and defensive combined using Baseball Reference numbers) to qualify as average MLB position players. Hasse, Baez, and Greene made the cut. There was at least one (i.e., Carpenter) that might have also. The rest did not. I think our biggest danger might be taking too little risk by overvaluing the current position players we have in the organization.

This is where my part of my head is at. On the basis of calculated risk, I don't see it as an outrageous action to cut Candy. What we are experiencing here is the angst that comes with taking a risk.

Candelario, according to Baseball reference, was less than a 1 WAR player last year. His OPS+ in '22 declined from '21 and both were under league average , although in '21 it was close. I tend to think that it is not unreasonable to assume that Candelario will be less than a 1 WAR player in '23. In my mind, this is a calculated risk that someone of equal to better than Jemier can be found . I am somewhat vexed that they supposedly from an earlier post tried offering him less money. I think it is highly understandable for a degree of suspicion to be cast on the decision to move on from Candy. There is risk regardless of whether he was kept or not. Whether it is riskier to keep or move on from Candy it debateable.

I am concerned that both Tork and Jung may be busts. The anxiety I have over Jung is probably irrational.

On a totally different subject, how confident are we that TORK! gets fixed (as a player)this year? my confidence level is roughly 37%. My concern is that he seemed to be having way too many problems hitting fast balls down the middle based upon what I remember seeing at the close of last year. Maybe I am simply being nervous Norman, on the other hand, the brain trust moves by the Tigers indicates there is some concern there as well.

Thanks for this reply. It immediately brought to mind the pamphlet "Common Sense" by Thomas Paine.

This is the point. I am pleased that decisions that should have been made, in some cases, years ago, are finally being made. The fastest way to make a mess of any organization is to delay or deny making obvious decisions swiftly.The Tigers have raised delaying obvious decisions to an art form. Scott Harris is changing that and will change organizational culture for the better if this continues. He is going to churn the utility grade players like they are butter, and very few (maybe only one?) will be on the roster by opening day. There are plenty of Tiger fans and likely members of the Tigers organization proper that have been conditioned to accept players like the Castros to be average to better than average ball players, which they obviously are not. Certain notions such as these must be dispelled and exiled from Tigers Nation so that the real work of fixing this franchise can happen.

It is simply time to relax. Think of it like we are watching a long epic movie. To me it is like I am watching the movie, "The Longest Day" and we are only say, 10 minutes into a movie that runs 2 hours and 58 minutes. A lot of time is left in this offseason. So far, every move that has been made is correct in my book.

C Dom Nunez•C Meibrys Viloria I noticed these 2 catcher on the SF Giants non tendered list. Does anyone have anything solid on these two?

I will make no bones about it. I am delighted by the fact that both Castros and that Jemier were non-tendered. I still want Miggy gone for performance based reasons. to match last year's performance for Harold, Willi, and Jemier in terms of WAR will not be that hard. None o fthe three, when both dWAR and oWAR are counted together get to a 1.1 total. If I am understanding the stats correctly, their performances would still be less than the rate that would produce an 81 win team. If the front office can't find adequate replacement for what is still a collection of sub-mediocrity, then that entire office needs to be canned immediately. Now I will go enjoy my glass of champagne, enjoying an obvious decision that needed to be made.

I am pretty much in agreement here. On the other hand, I do grow weary of feeling like we are continuously sinking money into a 2001 Yugo with 300,000 miles on it.

Very impressive spreadsheet. On the Revenue side, generated at the gate per head was about $3 per head less than I thought.

There was a subdued, nervous snicker when Scott was asked about what the Giants thought about the Tiger's farm system during his media introduction. Then there was even a more quickly subdued smile by Scott Harris himself. My take was that the Tigers have been the laughing stock of MLB for some time now. Harris knew coming in what he had to work with. His major surprise at this point is when he finds something in the organization that is useful.