bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #14 – Kevin Patrick McGonigle Kevin McGonigle is the reason why the Tigers didn’t spend any money on offense during the off-season. While it may have been surprising that he made the opening day roster, most everyone agreed that at some point during the season he would be called up. There really hasn’t been this much hype for a Tigers positional player prospect in my lifetime. Sure, the Tigers have gotten some contribution from recent prospects, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, but Kevin McGonigle, who is the consensus #2 prospect in all of baseball, feels different. The 21-year-old is such a pure hitter that A.J. Hinch and company feel like he didn’t even need AAA. Here are his minor league stats spanning from rookie ball to AA: 2023 – 93 PA | .315/.452/.411 | 145 wRC+ 2024 – 328 PA | .309/.401/.452 | 145 wRC+ 2025 – 397 PA | .305/.408/.583 | 182 wRC+ He has it all, hitting for average, high on-base percentage, and he was hitting for power by the time he got to AA (12 home runs and a .296 ISO in 206 plate appearances). What’s really impressive is not only the high walk rate, but also the low strikeout rate: 2023 – 19.4% BB% | 10.8% K% | 1.1% HR% 2024 – 14.0% BB% | 8.5% K% | 1.5% HR% 2025 – 14.9% BB% | 11.6% K% | 4.8% HR% Players gaining power as they age into their 20s is very common and McGonigle likely already has the ability to hit around 15 home runs in the Majors. His batted ball data also shows that he is gaining power as he is starting to hit more fly balls. 2023 – 42.2% GB% | 34.4% FB% | 23.4% LD% 2024 – 42.3% GB% | 31.0% FB% | 26.6% LD% 2025 – 35.7% GB% | 43.4% FB% | 21.0% LD% Lastly, McGonigle has some speed. He stole 22 bases in 2024, but only 10 in 2025. How many steals he will get in 2026 will depend on how often he gets on base and how aggressive Hinch is with him. Generally, the Tigers don’t steal that often but I can see McGonigle getting about 10 steals again. How soon all of this will all translate into the Major Leagues is anyone’s guess. There could be and we probably should anticipate some struggles in his rookie year but hopefully it’s not going to be long stretches. Many people are predicting a Rookie of the Year Award for McGongile and it’s easy to see why. It’s always hard to predict what a rookie will do in his first season, but if anyone can contribute right away, it’s someone of Kevin McGongile’s ability (and he already is off to a great start with four hits in five at bats on Opening Day). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 477 AB | .253/.336/.426 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 10 SB | 59 BB | 76 K Steamer – 387 AB | .257/.343/.414 | 12 HR | 48 RBI | 8 SB | 49 BB | 65 K ZiPS DC – 477 AB | .249/.329/.438 | 18 HR | 75 RBI | 9 SB | 58 BB | 71 K ATC – 394 AB | .254/.331/.427 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 10 SB | 45 BB | 65 K THE BAT X – 401 AB | .254/.321/.420 | 13 HR | 50 RBI | 10 SB | 38 BB | 65 K OOPSY – 485 AB | .252/.327/.418 | 18 HR | 64 RBI | 11 SB | 55 BB | 93 K RotoChamp – 425 AB | .254/.341/.426 | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 9 SB | 48 BB | 71 K CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 329 AB | .261/.346/.438 | 10 HR | 47 RBI | 11 SB | 44 BB | 62 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual (MiLB) – 331 AB | .305/.408/.583 | 19 HR | 80 RBI | 10 SB | 59 BB | 46 K 2026 Prediction – 501 AB | .269/.360/.461 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 10 SB | 72 BB | 78 K This concludes this year's predictions. I really wish I was able to finish before opening day, but I have a lot of stuff going on in my life right now. I'm really excited for the season. GO TIGERS!!!

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #13 – Parker Meadows I had a hard time figuring out who to do with this prediction. Manager A.J. Hinch loves to platoon players and move guys around the field. Javy Baez was a surprising All-Star at centerfield last year, but fizzled out in the second half. Matt Vierling is coming back from injury and is still a question mark. Wenceel Perez was sent back to AAA, but he has had his moments of success in the big leagues. I don’t have time to go into depth with all of these players, so I choose Parker Meadows, who probably has the best raw talent of these players, but has yet to put it all together. Meadows has made the opening day roster despite many fans believing he should have started in AAA instead of Perez. Meadows has spent the last three years splitting time between the Tigers and AAA. He has 656 career plate appearances with a .232/.308/.386 batting line, 16 home runs, 9.6 percent walk rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and a slightly below average 95 wRC+. His 2024 season looked promising that he would break out in 2025, but instead he took a big step backwards. 2023 – 145 PA | .232/.331/.368 | 94 wRC+ 2024 – 298 PA | .244/.310/.433 | 110 wRC+ 2025 – 213 PA | .215/.291/.330 | 75 wRC+ The second half of his 2024 season was the best we’ve ever seen of Meadows, when he batted .296/.340/.500 with six home runs in 201 plate appearances. While not as good, his second half in 2025 was also a bit better than his first half, when he hit .244/.330/.390 in 94 plate appearances. The problem here is that these are all small sample sizes and he has yet to put it altogether, let alone put in a full season at the big league level. The one bright stat that I see is his ability to draw a walk. His career walk rate of 9.6 percent is slightly better than league average. 2023 – 11.7% BB% | 25.5% K% | 8.1% HR/FB% 2024 – 8.4% BB% | 25.5% K% | 9.7% HR/FB% 2025 – 9.9% BB% | 26.3% K% | 8.7% HR/FB% A high walk rate might be enough to keep Meadows on a big league roster, even if his batting average is in the low to mid .200s. He has above average speed and could steal around 20 bases if he can get a full season in the Major Leagues. He has had some flashes of power( career .154 ISO), however he had a much higher ground ball rate in 2025. 2023 – 35.2% GB% | 42.0% FB% | 22.7% LD% 2024 – 32.5% GB% | 47.9% FB% | 19.6% LD% 2025 – 42.4% GB% | 34.8% FB% | 22.7% LD% I think one of the keys for Meadows this year is to get his fly ball rate back up where he can show some of that power again. Although, he may also benefit from bunting more often to take advantage of his above-average speed. I think Meadows has the tools to stay at the major league level, even if it’s in a fourth outfielder/platoon role (especially considering his defense ability). I’m not sure exactly the role they plan on for Meadows this year, but considering Manager A.J. Hinch’s propensity to platoon guys, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baez share centerfield with Meadows this year, especially considering Meadows bats left-handed and Baez bats right-handed. Baez batted .318/.336/.434 against southpaws in 2025 in 134 plate appearances. I wish I had time to do a deep dive in Baez for 2026, but I only have time for one more prediction and I’m sure everyone knows who it’s going to be (and even that one might be a little late). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 398 AB | .231/.306/.385 | 11 HR | 50 RBI | 11 SB | 42 BB | 111 K Steamer – 366 AB | .228/.304/.377 | 10 HR | 42 RBI | 10 SB | 39 BB | 104 K ZiPS DC – 398 AB | .234/.308/.394 | 12 HR | 54 RBI | 12 SB | 42 BB | 109 K ATC – 373 AB | .225/.298/.372 | 10 HR | 39 RBI | 11 SB | 38 BB | 106 K THE BAT X – 374 AB | .220/.292/.365 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 12 SB | 37 BB | 107 K OOPSY – 400 AB | .235/.307/.394 | 12 HR | 46 RBI | 13 SB | 40 BB | 110 K RotoChamp – 382 AB | .230/.312/.385 | 11 HR | 43 RBI | 12 SB | 39 BB | 107 K CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 448 AB | .228/.312/.402 | 12 HR | 44 RBI | 12 SB | 55 BB | 128 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 455 AB | .248/.336/.453 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 116 K 2025 Actual – 191 AB | .215/.291/.330 | 4 HR | 16 RBI | 4 SB | 21 BB | 56 K 2026 Prediction – 267 AB | .228/.308/.363 | 6 HR | 27 RBI | 5 SB | 30 BB | 77 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #12 – Zachary McKinstry For the second time in three years, Zach McKinstry has logged in more than 500 plate appearances, appearing in every position at least once in 2025 except catcher and centerfield. His most played positions were third base (85), shortstop (40), and right-field (30). Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter will likely get plenty of time at designated hitter, and Kevin McGonigle is still an unknown at the Major League level, so McKinstry should have plenty of opportunities to get another full year’s worth of plate appearances again in 2026. Offensively, McKinstry had his best season yet with a career high in batting average (.259), home runs (12) and wRC+ (114), earning him his first Silver Slugger Award. Overall, McKinstry had a 3.2 fWAR in 2025, second among position players on the Tigers only to Dillon Dingler at 4.1 fWAR. The first stat that jumps out for McKinstry is the stolen bases. The Tigers are not known for stealing bases, but McKinstry led the team with 19 in 2025 (Wenceel Perez was second with 8 stolen bases). Over the last three years, McKinstry has 51 stolen bases (Javier Baez is second with 25 stolen bases). Without adding much in offense over the off-season, it’s reasonable to assume that McKinstry could lead the team again in steals with double digits. The big question is if Zach McKinstry can repeat his career year in 2026. Let’s look at his batted ball data: 2023 – 43.1% FB% | 35.1% GB | 21.8% LD% | 5.9% HR/FB% 2024 – 42.4% FB% | 32.8% GB% | 24.9% LD% | 4.1% HR/FB% 2025 – 33.8% FB% | 40.2% GB% | 26.0% LD% | 10.3% HR/FB% The 10.3% HR/FB rate is a big jump from 2023 and 2024, although it is closer to his 8.2 percent career rate. The 26 percent line drive rate is also pretty high and I would expect it to come down closer to the 21 percent mark (although his career rate is 23.7 percent). It’s possible that everything just came together for McKinstry in 2025 and he can repeat it again, but there are a few stats that show he was lucky. Expected: .247 xBA | .358 xSLG | .305 xwOBA Real: .259 AVG | .438 SLG | .333 wOBA There’s also a stat listed in Statcast called the Launch Angle (LA) Sweet Spot percentage, which measures how often a player hits his sweet spot. Several Tigers are high in this stat, including Zach McKinstry. 1. Mike Trout – 44.4% 2. Daylen Lile – 44.2% 3. Ezequiel Tovar – 43.3% 5. Dillon Dingler – 42.3% 10. Zach McKinstry – 41.2% 12. Colt Keith – 41.1% Trout being high on this list isn’t that surprising, even if his 2025 wasn’t as good as his prime years. Although guys like Aaron Judge (20th, 39.4%), Shohei Ohtani (79th, 35.9%), and Cal Raleigh (95th, 35.3%) aren’t very high. But maybe this shows that McKinstry can repeat some of his production in 2026? Maybe look out for Daylen Lile in 2026? I’m not that familiar with this stat and its projection ability, but I thought it was interesting to see some Tigers high on this list. Finally, let’s look at walks and strikeouts: 2023 – 8.5% BB% | 21.8% K% | 1.7% HR% 2024 – 7.4% BB% | 21.2% K% | 1.2% HR% 2025 – 9.0% BB% | 21.7% K% | 2.4% HR% The increase in walk rate is a nice sign and he chased 26.4 percent of balls out of the strike zone in 2025, which was a career low. Hopefully he can repeat that. The strikeout rate is oddly consistent while the home run rate looks high, although McKinstry has a 2.2 percent career home run rate. Maybe that number could be sustainable if he can get his fly ball rate back up. It’ll be pretty bold to assume that a 31-year old can repeat a career year again, although there are some late bloomers (like Justin Turner). Some stats show that he was lucky, although some show that it isn’t far away from his career norm. Then there’s the issue with playing time. Will he actually get 500+ plate appearances again? Will he be able to concentrate on hitting while also playing multiple positions at a high level? I think it’s reasonable to go conservative here and hope he outperforms again. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 368 AB | .239/.312/.382 | 9 HR | 40 RBI | 13 SB | 36 BB | 89 K Steamer – 308 AB | .234/.308/.372 | 7 HR | 34 RBI | 11 SB | 30 BB | 75 K ZiPS DC – 369 AB | .243/.316/.392 | 9 HR | 39 RBI | 14 SB | 36 BB | 89 K ATC – 363 AB | .233/.304/.369 | 8 HR | 36 RBI | 13 SB | 34 BB | 88 K THE BAT X – 356 AB | .233/.303/.367 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 14 SB | 33 BB | 88 K OOPSY – 368 AB | .238/.310/.377 | 8 HR | 39 RBI | 14 SB | 36 BB | 89 K RotoChamp – 362 AB | .238/.308/.376 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 14 SB | 35 BB | 88 K CBS Sports – 452 AB | .259/.333/.438 | 12 HR | 49 RBI | 19 SB | 46 BB | 111 K ESPN – 393 AB | .242/.312/.387 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 16 SB | 37 BB | 95 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 452 AB | .259/.333/.438 | 12 HR | 49 RBI | 19 SB | 46 BB | 111 K 2026 Prediction – 425 AB | .235/.306/.395 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 15 SB | 40 BB | 102 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #11 – Casey Arthur Mize In many ways, Casey Mize had a career year in 2025. The first time All-Star had a career high in wins (14), strikeouts (139), and fWAR (2.4). Mize missed nearly two years because of Tommy John surgery, only making two starts in 2022 and missing all of 2023. Here are his most recent, relatively healthy three seasons: 2021 – 150 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 19.3% K% | 6.7% BB% | 16.2% HR/FB% | 4.71 FIP 2024 – 102 1/3 IP | 4.49 ERA | 17.3% K% | 6.4% BB% | 10.9% HR/FB% | 3.95 FIP 2025 – 149 IP | 3.87 ERA | 22.2% K% | 5.7% BB% | 11.4% HR/FB% | 3.89 FIP Mize was able to get his strikeout rate over 20 percent for the first time and was able to get his walk rate down below six percent. However, his second half ERA was much worse than the first half. First Half – 88 2/3 IP | 3.15 ERA | 20.9 K% | 6.0 BB% | 3.3 HR% Second Half – 60 1/3 IP | 4.92 ERA | 24.0 K% | 5.4 BB% | 3.5 HR% Both his strikeout rate and walk rate were better in the second half and his home run rate remained the same. There could be a bit of misfortune going on here. All of his expected numbers were better than his actual numbers. Expected: .236 xBA | .413 xSLG | .298 xwOBA | 3.66 xERA Actual: .263 AVG | .437 SLG | .319 wOBA | 3.87 ERA Finally, I want to point out his batted ball data: 2021 – 48.1% GB | 33.7% FB% | 18.2% LD% 2024 – 49.0% GB% | 29.6% FB% | 21.4% LD% 2025 – 38.7% GB% | 41.7% FB% | 19.6% LD% I personally would like to see Mize get his ground ball rate back up to near 50 percent again and his fly ball rate back down to around 30 percent again, although this seemed to work for him in 2025 with the higher strikeout rate. Casey Mize is still under 30 and can still have his best season yet in 2026 if everything lines up right. If he can maintain his strikeout rate and walk rate from 2025, get his ground ball rate back to near 50 percent and have no long stretches of struggles and stay healthy, I feel confident that he can out-perform a lot of these projections. Although he has mentioned that his mechanics are a bit off as we near the end of Spring Training, it’s a long season and I think he can get it corrected soon. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 145 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 129 K | 41 BB Steamer – 151 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 133 K | 42 BB ZiPS DC – 140 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.04 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 126 K | 40 BB ATC – 145 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.12 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 126 K | 39 BB THE BAT X – 145 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 118 K | 40 BB OOPSY – 143 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.13 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 125 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 144 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.12 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 125 K | 40 BB CBS Sports – 141 IP | 9-6 W/ L | 3.13 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 132 K | 32 BB ESPN – 122 IP | 8 W | 4.06 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 109 K | 33 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 125 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 102 K | 34 BB 2025 Actual – 149 IP | 14-6 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.268 WHIP | 139 K | 36 BB 2026 Prediction – 152 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.55 ERA | 1.151 WHIP | 150 K | 34 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #10 – Colten Thomas Keith For the third straight year, Colt Keith is starting the season at a new position. In 2024, he was the opening day second baseman. In 2025, he was the opening day first baseman (although he only played 18 games at that position). And now in 2026, he is expected to be the opening day third baseman. He is in year three of a six-year, $28.6425 team-friendly contract (including three additional team options) and was even better in his second year than his rookie year. 2024 – 556 PA | .260/.309/.380 | 6.5% BB% | 19.8% K% | 9.3% HR/FB% | 95 wRC+ 2025 – 468 PA | .256/.333/.413 | 10.3% BB% | 21.8% K% | 10.7% HR/FB% | 109 wRC+ One stat that immediately jumps out is the walk rate. Keith had a 10.3 percent career minor league walk rate as well as a 10.4 percent walk rate in 2023 between AA and AAA, so maintaining a walk rate this high shouldn’t be a problem. It may even be higher. Another area of improvement is the power. He had 13 home runs in each of his first two seasons, but did it in less playing time in 2025. He increased his ISO from .120 in 2024 to .157 in 2025. His ISO was regularly over .200 in the minor leagues and he had as much as 27 home runs (13 in AAA and 14 in AA during 2023). I feel that he can gain even more power as he enters his prime years. One area of concern with Keith is his stats against left-handed pitching. Vs. RHP – 422 PA | .267/.346/.439 | 10.7% BB% | 21.3% K% | 3.1 HR% Vs. LHP – 46 PA | .163/.217/.186 | 6.5% BB% | 26.1% K% | 0.0% HR% However, this is a very small sample, and he was much better against left-handed pitching in 2024. Vs. LHP – 88 PA | .305/.352/.366 | 6.8% BB% | 27.3% K% | 1.1% HR% Manager A.J. Hinch loves to play the matchups, so limiting Keith’s playing time against left-handed pitching seems to be a thing that he will continue to do. Keith is just entering his age-24 season, and I can see him getting better and better in each season as he goes into his prime years. I think he’s going to exceed everyone’s expectations and hit close to 20 home runs this season. There is nothing in his stats that show that he was unlucky in 2025 and everything points to an even better 2026. He is my pick for a breakout season (even with a certain #2 overall prospect waiting in the wings). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 444 AB | .264/.334/.433 | 15 HR | 62 RBI | 3 SB | 46 BB | 104 K Steamer – 430 AB | .262/.335/.430 | 15 HR | 55 RBI | 4 SB | 45 BB | 97 K ZiPS DC – 446 AB | .265/.333/.435 | 15 HR | 67 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 109 K ATC – 439 AB | .257/.325/.424 | 15 HR | 55 RBI | 3 SB | 43 BB | 102 K THE BAT X – 439 AB | .254/.322/.414 | 14 HR | 54 RBI | 4 SB | 43 BB | 103 K OOPSY – 446 AB | .263/.330/.428 | 15 HR | 59 RBI | 3 SB | 44 BB | 102 K RotoChamp – 429 AB | .261/.340/.431 | 15 HR | 55 RBI | 3 SB | 43 BB | 100 K CBS Sports – 476 AB | .271/.340/.433 | 16 HR | 59 RBI | 4 SB | 48 BB | 120 K ESPN – 465 AB | .258/.325/.409 | 14 HR | 55 RBI | 2 SB | 46 BB | 109 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 525 AB | .261/.316/.400 | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 10 SB | 41 BB | 120 K 2025 Actual – 414 AB | .256/.333/.413 | 13 HR | 45 RBI | 1 SB | 48 BB | 102 K 2026 Prediction – 481 AB | .249/.336/.435 | 19 HR | 65 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 124 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #9 – Justin Brooks Verlander In the words of John Sebatian, “Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back.” The Tigers drafted Justin Verlander with the second overall pick way back in 2004. He made his Major League debut in 2005 and was a permanent fixture in the Tigers rotation for the next 11 and a half years, winning Rookie of the Year, a Cy Young Award, and an MVP Award. After leaving the Tigers, he won another two Cy Young Awards for the Houston Astros, including one at age 39, just a year after having Tommy John Surgery. He has been one of the best pitchers over the last 20 years, with a 3.32 career ERA in over 3567 innings. He is eighth all-time in strikeouts with 3553 and is 148 away from Bert Blyleven at fifth overall. Now with a homecoming and entering his age 43 season and pitching in his 21st year, can he continue to contribute in the place that started it all for Verlander? After only pitching 90 1/3 innings in 2024, Verlander started 29 games for the Giants in 2025. While far from the workhorse he was during his prime, he did start 29 games with 152 innings and a 3.85 ERA, a 20.7 percent strikeout rate, a 7.9 percent walk rate, and a 3.85 FIP. The walk rate is a concern as it was the highest that Verlander had since 2017 and his strikeout rate is slightly below league average (after constantly being one of the best strikeout pitchers in his prime). He had a decent ERA, but his 4.57 xFIP, 4.44 SIERA, and 4.24 xFIP suggest a bit of good fortune. Verlander has always had a great four-seam fastball along with a variety of secondary pitches. Here was his usage of pitches in 2025, according to Statcast: 4-seam – 45.3% Slider – 23.3% Curveball – 14.6% Changeup – 8.5% Sweeper – 7.9% Verlander’s best pitch was his slider, getting 51 strikeouts with it. During his prime, his fastball was his bread and butter, but was below average over the last couple of years with an average velocity of 93.7 in 2025. His changeup was very effective against left-handed batters as was his sweeper against right-handed batters. It’ll be interesting to see if he throws those pitches more often in 2026 as he has to rely on secondary pitches more often than just his fastball at this point in his career. Verlander struggled in the first half of the season but finished very strong. First Half – 76 2/3 IP | 4.70 ERA | 19.9% K% | 7.7% BB% Second Half – 75 1/3 IP | 2.99 ERA | 21.5% K% | 8.0% BB% Can he carry that second half into 2026? How much longer can he be effective as he continues to pitch into his forties? How much of an impact will Chris Fetter have on him, who is considered one of the best pitching coaches right now? How will pitching half his games in Comerica Park affect him? Can he stay healthy? All of these factors will figure in how good he will be and unfortunately, I’m a bit skeptical that he can have another sub-4.00 ERA again. I hope I am wrong. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 141 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.31 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 116 K | 44 BB Steamer – 143 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 120 K | 44 BB ZiPS DC – 139 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 113 K | 45 BB ATC – 128 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 107 K | 41 BB THE BAT X – 128 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.72 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 102 K | 46 BB OOPSY – 141 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.54 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 119 K | 49 BB RotoChamp – 131 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.47 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 108 K | 43 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 148 IP | 9 W | 4.38 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 127 K | 54 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 152 IP | 4-11 W/L | 3.85 ERA | 1.362 WHIP | 137 K | 52 BB 2026 Prediction – 152 1/3 IP | 7-10 W/L | 4.61 ERA | 1.300 WHIP | 127 K | 49 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #8 – Gleyber David Torres In a somewhat surprising move, Gleyber Torres decided to accept the Tigers’ qualifying offer of $22.025 million for 2026 instead of testing the Free Agent market. The All-Star had a very good first year with the Tigers, hitting .256/.358/.387 with a 113 rWC+ and 2.6 fWAR and might have gotten a multi-year deal in the open market but decided to stay another year with the Tigers. The first thing that I notice from Torres last year were the walk and strikeout rates, which were a big improvement from 2024. 2023 – 10.0% BB% | 14.6% K% | 12.6% HR/FB% 2024 – 9.8% BB% | 20.5% K% | 8.1% HR/FB% 2025 – 13.5% BB% | 16.1% K% | 9.0% HR/FB% According to Statcast, Torres only chased 17.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone; only Juan Soto had a lower chase rate at 16.2 percent. Hopefully this isn’t a fluke, and he can carry this into 2026. The power numbers are down from what he did early in his career, but if he can continue with these plate discipline numbers, he’ll still contribute a lot. Another thing of note is his first half/second half splits. He started out strong but really struggled in the second half. First Half – 359 PA | .281/.387/.425 | 14.2% BB% | 12.8% K% | 2.5% HR% Second Half – 269 PA | .223/.320/.339 | 12.6% BB% | 20.4% K% | 2.6% HR% It was later revealed that he had a hernia that he was playing through that required off-season surgery. It’ll be interesting to see if Torres can keep up his first half numbers over a full healthy season. Even with the injury, there are signs that Torres was having just plain bad luck. According to Baseball Savant, his expected numbers were better than his real numbers. Real – .256 AVG | .387 SLG | .332 wOBA Expected – .269 xBA | .462 xSLG | .363 xwOBA Torres is still under 30, right in the middle of his prime years. Even though he’s unlikely going to get his power numbers back (I’d be shocked if he hit 30 homers again), he is still a valuable hitter and whatever adjustments he made in the first half of 2025, I hope that continues for 2026. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 572 AB | .260/.347/.407 | 18 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 74 BB | 113 K Steamer – 555 AB | .260/.346/.406 | 18 HR | 66 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K ZiPS DC – 571 AB | .261/.348/.409 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 6 SB | 75 BB | 113 K ATC – 554 AB | .257/.343/.401 | 17 HR | 68 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K THE BAT X – 554 AB | .256/.340/.398 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 7 SB | 70 BB | 110 K OOPSY – 576 AB | .263/.347/.410 | 19 HR | 74 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 111 K RotoChamp – 561 AB | .260/.346/.408 | 18 HR | 70 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 110 K CBS Sports – 495 AB | .261/.343/.394 | 14 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 61 BB | 109 K ESPN – 537 AB | .259/.353/.399 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 4 SB | 79 BB | 111 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 592 AB | .260/.335/.395 | 12 HR | 66 RBI | 15 SB | 67 BB | 134 K 2025 Actual – 532 AB | .256/.358/.387 | 16 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 101 K 2026 Prediction – 552 AB | .268/.365/.411 | 16 HR | 77 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 104 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #7 – Francis Dillon Dingler Dillion Dingler took over for Jake Rogers and became the primary catcher in 2025. He had a decent batting average (.278), showed some power (13 home runs, .147 ISO) and had the highest fWAR of any Tigers position player (4.1) thanks to above average defense that also awarded him a Gold Glove. Can he continue this into 2026 or will he have a sophomore slump? Having only one year of data, it’s hard to predict because you don’t know what is luck and what can be repeated. For example, Dingler’s BABIP is .345. This is a pretty high number. Not impossible, but usually only the elite hitters are this high (Miguel Cabrera’s BABIP was .340 for his career). Yet, Dingler has had a pretty high BABIP throughout his minor league career: 2022 (AA) - .335 BABIP 2023 (A, AA, AAA) - .327 BABIP 2024 (AAA) - .337 BABIP Another likely regression is his line drive rate of 28.2 percent, the highest of any Major League hitter with at least 400 plate appearances (Zach McKinstry was second with a 26.0 percent line drive rate. This is all of baseball, not just the Tigers). Dingler never had this high of a line drive rate in the minor leagues, but was close in 2024. 2022 (AA) – 22.4% LD% 2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 18.1% LD% 2024 (AAA) – 27.5% LD% According to FanGraphs, Dingler’s batting average on line drives was .747. Usually, the league average is around .720. Considering all of this, I do expect a lower overall batting average from Dingler in 2026. One area of improvement that I can see from Dingler is his 4.9 percent walk rate, which has been a lot higher in the minor leagues. 2022 (AA) – 10.0% BB% | 31.9% K% | 13.9% HR/FB 2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 11.0% BB% | 27.6% | 17.0% HR/FB 2024 (AAA) – 10.0% BB% | 20.3% K% | 20.2% HR/FB 2025 – 4.9% BB% | 23.5% BB% | 11.1% HR/FB Lastly, I want to look at his splits. Sometimes a hitter can get off to a hot streak right away, but then cool off as pitchers figure him out. First Half – 265 PA | .265/.306/.414 | 3.4% BB% | 23.8% K% | 3.0% HR% Second Half – 204 PA | .296/.355/.441 | 6.9% BB% | 23.0% K% | 2.5% HR% Dingler had the opposite of this, better numbers almost across the board in the second half last year. June was his worst month, when he hit .209/.239/.358. Dingler’s strong finish is encouraging and hopefully it’ll carry through to this season. Again, it’s really difficult to figure out a prediction on essentially just one year of Major League data. The areas that will regress could be evened out by the areas where he genuinely is improving. He could repeat, improve to a career year, or regress down to a below average hitter. In cases like this, I’m usually conservative. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 389 AB | .245/.306/.404 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 107 K Steamer – 296 AB | .245/.305/.404 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 79 K ZiPS DC – 390 AB | .244/.308/.405 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K ATC – 382 AB | .242/.300/.395 | 12 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 26 BB | 105 K THE BAT X – 383 AB | .241/.296/.385 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 2 SB | 24 BB | 104 K OOPSY – 388 AB | .243/.305/.403 | 14 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 28 BB | 107 K RotoChamp – 384 AB | .242/.295/.396 | 12 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 105 K CBS Sports – 404 AB | .267/.327/.426 | 13 HR | 54 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K ESPN – 418 AB | .268/.331/.428 | 14 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 33 BB | 117 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 435 AB | .278/.327/.425 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 110 K 2026 Prediction – 408 AB | .238/.307/.385 | 11 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 104 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #6 – Jack Rafe Flaherty Jack Flaherty’s 2025 season was disappointing compared to his 2024 season, in which he won a World Series after the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers. 2024 – 162 IP | 3.17 ERA | 29.9% K% | 5.9% BB% | 3.48 FIP 2025 – 161 IP | 4.64 ERA | 27.6% K% | 8.7% BB% | 3.85 FIP Flaherty decided to exercise his $20 million player option and stay in Detroit for the 2026 season instead of hitting Free Agency again. The stat that immediately jumps out is his walk rate. After a career-low 5.9 percent in 2024, Flaherty’s walk rate jumped back up to his career normal 8.7 percent in 2025. More walks, more baserunners, more chances to score, higher ERA. The plate discipline stats do show that hitters were swinging less out of the strike zone (30.3 percent compared to 33.3 percent in 2024) and had less overall swinging strikes (11.3 percent compared to 13.3 percent in 2024), however his called strikes were exactly the same in the last two years (18 percent). He still remains an above average strikeout pitcher; his 10.5 K/9 in 2025 was fifth in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 150 innings. It’ll be interesting to see if the ABS challenge system will have any impact on his numbers. Flaherty throws mainly a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, and a slider. He’ll throw a changeup, but almost exclusively to left-handed batters. His knuckle curve was his best pitch in 2024 and had the highest value of any knuckle curve in baseball. However, that value dropped to a below average pitch for him 2025, despite throwing it more often than his slider for the first time in his career. Here’s a breakdown of how hitters did against his knuckle curve: 2024 – .164 AVG | .219 SLG | 1 HR | 2440 spin 2025 - .205 AVG | .380 SLG | 6 HR | 2389 spin His expected batting average against was at .177 in 2025, so maybe there was some bad luck involved? Maybe he needs to throw his slider more to make his knuckle curve more effective? I’m no expert on spin rates, but less spin isn’t considered a good thing either. There are some stats here that imply that Flaherty’s 2025 may have had some back luck in them. His FIP was almost 0.80 runs lower than his ERA and his expected batting average against (.233) was almost identical to 2024 (.232), however his inflated walk rate is a concern as well as his knuckle curve. Flaherty is still only entering his age 30 season, so he is still considered in his prime years. A bounce-back season is very possible, but can he get back to his 2024 numbers? Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 160 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 58 BB Steamer – 163 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.89 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 177 K | 57 BB ZiPS DC – 157 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.14 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 175 K | 59 BB ATC – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB THE BAT X – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 170 K | 49 BB OOPSY – 161 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 175 K | 56 BB RotoChamp – 157 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.96 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB CBS Sports – 139 IP | 11-8 W/ L | 3.43 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 158 K | 37 BB ESPN – 154 IP | 10 W | 4.15 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 174 K | 55 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 182 1/3 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.015 WHIP | 225 K | 36 BB 2025 Actual – 161 IP | 8-15 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.280 WHIP | 188 K | 59 BB 2026 Prediction – 161 IP | 10-11 W/L | 4.25 ERA | 1.292 WHIP | 184 K | 58 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #5 – Kerry William Carpenter Kerry Carpenter has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2022. He is a career .268/.322/.507 hitter with a 128 wRC+, 5.3 percent home run rate, 3.9 percent walk rate, and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate. Last year, however, he had lower rate stats than in previous years. 2023 - 459 PA | .278/.340/.471 | 121 wRC+ 2024 – 296 PA | .284/.345/.587 | 158 wRC+ 2025 – 464 PA | .252/.291/.497 | 115 wRC+ He did hit a career-high 26 home runs in 2025, but his HR/FB rate was down to 17.3 percent.; it was at 20.9 percent in 2024 and 18.5 percent in 2023. Over 45 percent of his balls in play were fly balls, also a career high. He may have been trying too much to hit home runs, which resulted in more fly balls, but also a lower batting average. Another area of concern for Carpenter in 2025, was his walk rate. He only walked 18 times last year, down from 22 walks in 2024 in 168 fewer plate appearances. He did improve on his strikeout rate, though. 2023 – 7.0% BB% | 25.1% K% 2024 – 7.4% BB% | 25.3% K% 2025 – 3.9% BB% | 22.8% K% Carpenter also seemed to have a harder time hitting the off-speed pitch in 2025. 2023 – 101 AB | .267 AVG | .455 SLG | 5 HR 2024 – 58 AB | .293 AVG | .672 SLG | 6 HR 2025 – 99 AB | .242 AVG | .404 SLG | 4 HR Finally, Carpenter has always hit better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. Here are his splits for 2025: Vs. RHP – 373 AB | .257/.300/.512 Vs. LHP – 60 AB | .217/.238/.400 Manager A.J. Hinch likes playing matchups and sitting Carpenter down against left-handed pitching gives a great opportunity to get someone else playing time, like Jahmai Jones, who hit .288/.393/.577 vs. lefties in 2025 in 122 plate appearances. Carpenter did get three hits in the playoffs against left-handed pitching, including a clutch home run against Gabe Speier that gave the Tigers a 2-1 lead in Game 5 of the ALDS against Seattle. However, that’s a small sample and who knows if Hinch will change his game plan in 2026 to include Carpenter getting more at bats against left-handed pitching. For me, the biggest key for Carpenter is the walk rate. He has shown to have a walk rate of around 7 percent, which is slightly below league average. If he can get it back up, I think the batting average will also improve. He may lose a bit of home run power, but his overall stats will be better. He’s still under 30, so he could potentially have his best season yet. As far as playing time goes, I personally think Hinch will continue to platoon Carpenter and sit him against left-handed pitching, even though I think he deserves to see what he can do given 500+ plate appearances. If he does get that many, his overall stats may suffer, but we may get a moment similar to that Game 5 against Seattle. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 449 AB | .258/.314/.481 | 24 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K Steamer – 385 AB | .253/.310/.472 | 20 HR | 60 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 100 K ZiPS DC – 450 AB | .262/.318/.491 | 25 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K ATC – 438 AB | .253/.308/.474 | 24 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 114 K THE BAT X – 435 AB | .250/.309/.474 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K OOPSY – 449 AB | .257/.312/.469 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K RotoChamp – 440 AB | .255/.317/.470 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 114 K CBS Sports – 467AB | .268/.323/.518 | 28 HR | 73 RBI | 3 SB | 33 BB | 125 K ESPN – 487 AB | .251/.300/.474 | 26 HR | 72 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 454 AB | .262/.325/.526 | 28 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 125 K 2025 Actual – 433 AB | .252/.291/.497 | 26 HR | 62 RBI | 1 SB | 18 BB | 106 K 2026 Prediction – 433 AB | .270/.328/.513 | 26 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 112 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #4 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson In 2023, Spencer Torkelson seemed to break out hitting .233/.313/.446 with 31 home runs, 94 RBI with an above average 9.8 percent walk rate. However, in 2024, he struggled by hitting .201/.266/.300 with just four home runs in 230 plate appearances before getting sent down to AAA. After getting called up, he finished 2024 strong, hitting .248/.338/.444, and six home runs in his final 151 plate appearances. However, he wasn’t guaranteed a spot for the 2025 roster as Colt Keith was named the new starting first baseman before the season began. Torkelson did hit his way into the lineup, eventually reclaiming first base while hitting .240/.333/.456, 31 home runs and 78 RBI in 649 plate appearances last year. Torkelson’s power did start to dwindle as the season wore on, though. He hit 21 of his home runs in the first half of the season, showing significantly more power than in the second half of the season. First Half – 383 PA | .234/.337/.489 | 5.5% HR% | 11.5% BB% | 24.0% K% Second Half – 266 PA | .248/.327/.412 | 3.8% HR% | 10.5% BB% | 28.9% K% However, his batting average did improve in the second half. Maybe he was sacrificing power for a higher average? Or maybe it was just luck? According to Baseball Savant, his expected batting average was only .226 last year compared to .240 that he actually hit. And just like Riley Greene, the strikeouts are a major concern, and he struck out almost 30% of the time in the second half. Torkelson shows a lot of signs of a typical power hitter, including a flyball rate of over 50 percent. For both 2023 and 2025, he had a HR/FB rate of 15.0 percent. He also pulled the ball almost 50 percent of the time last year and 21 of his home runs were hit to left field. Torkelson is entering his age 27 season, right about the time players enter their prime. Unfortunately, I don’t really see much improvement from him this year. I think he is who he is – someone with a lot of power, low batting average, a high walk rate, but also a high strikeout rate. If he can duplicate his 118 wRC+ again, that’s a major plus to the lineup, even if his defensive stats are way below average. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 562 AB | .235/.324/.445 | 29 HR | 89 RBI | 2 SB | 69 BB | 167 K Steamer – 501 AB | .228/.320/.425 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB | 63 BB | 151 K ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .242/.329/.465 | 31 HR | 96 RBI | 2 SB | 68 BB | 165 K ATC – 538 AB | .232/.319/.435 | 27 HR | 79 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 64 K THE BAT X – 539 AB | .229/.316/.428 | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 158 K OOPSY – 562 AB | .237/.327/.429 | 26 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 70 BB | 162 K RotoChamp – 544 AB | .235/.324/.439 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 2 SB | 66 BB | 161 K CBS Sports – 489 AB | .247/.338/.460 | 25 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 60 BB | 149 K ESPN – 588 AB | .243/.331/.461 | 32 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 171 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 563 AB | .240/.333/.456 | 31 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 169 K 2026 Prediction – 563 AB | .227/.323/.437 | 29 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 75 BB | 172 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #3 – Framber Valdez After a pretty calm off-season, the Tigers surprised most everyone by signing the best free agent available at the time by agreeing to terms with Framber Valdez at three years and $115 million. Valdez will reunite with manager A.J. Hinch and fellow pitcher Justin Verlander in 2026. Framber Valdez has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since becoming a permanent fixture in Houston’s rotation in 2020. Since 2020, Valdez is fifth in innings pitched (973), tied with Max Fried with the most wins (73), and is sixth in fWAR (20.3). Also, since 2020, he has an ERA of 3.32, an FIP of 3.36, a 23.8 percent strikeout rate, and an 8.0 percent walk rate. He has placed top 10 in Cy Young voting three times and won a World Series with Verlander in Houston in 2022. He has been consistent and durable throughout his career and combined with Tarik Skubal, should make one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball. Valdez’s ERA was slightly higher in 2025 than it has been in previous years. However, his FIP has been consistent, so it may have just been a case of bad luck. 2022 – 201 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.06 FIP 2023 – 198 IP | 3.45 ERA | 3.50 FIP 2024 – 176 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 3.25 FIP 2025 – 192 IP | 3.66 ERA | 3.37 FIP Valdez throws mostly a sinker, curveball and changeup. His sinker is his best pitch, and he throws it about 45 percent of the time. According to Statcast, his curveball went from an above average pitch (12.9 runs above average in 2024) to just an average pitch (0.2 runs below average in 2025). However, batters still only batted .193 against this pitch according to Baseball Savant (with a .298 slugging against). His expected batting average against this pitch was .163 (and an expected .240 slugging against), so again, there might be some bad luck here. In 2024, batters hit .121 against his curveball (with a .187 slugging against). Valdez’s strikeout rate has been very consistent throughout his career, around 23-24 percent. His walk rate was a bit high in 2025, 8.5 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in 2024 and 7.1 percent in 2023. He is one of the best at preventing home runs (0.7 HR/9 in 2025), however, it should be noted that he had a league leading 12 wild pitches last season. There are two split stats that are notable. One is his home/away and the other is home/road. He was much better at home last year (not surprising as most pitchers are) and he was much better in the first half of the season (again, most pitchers are due to fatigue). Home – 94 1/3 IP | 2.58 ERA | 9.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 Away – 97 2/3 IP | 4.70 ERA | 7.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 First Half – 121 IP | 2.75 ERA | 9.3 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 Second Half – 71 IP | 5.20 ERA | 7.9 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 Valdez is entering his age 32 season, so he’s likely at the end of his prime years. I’m anticipating his ERA to go back down, although it may not be under 3.00 again. As long as he can improve his curveball and walk rate, he should get back to his career norms. And who knows how the ABS Challenge System is going to impact his numbers this year. I’m also confident that pitching coach Chris Fetter will keep him on track. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 195 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 180 K | 65 BB Steamer – 190 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 62 BB ZiPS DC – 200 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 185 K | 67 BB ATC – 187 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.49 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 174 K | 61 BB THE BAT X – 187 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.33 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 170 K | 60 BB OOPSY – 194 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.52 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 181 K | 65 BB RotoChamp – 186 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.48 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB CBS Sports – 185 IP | 14-10 W/ L | 3.89 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 172 K | 57 BB ESPN – 198 IP | 15 W | 3.50 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 189 K | 70 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 192 IP | 13-11 W/L | 3.66 ERA | 1.245 WHIP | 187 K | 68 BB 2026 Prediction – 196 1/3 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.161 WHIP | 192 K | 66 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene Riley Greene had what many would consider a career year in 2025. He had career highs in home runs (36), runs batted in (111), and slugging percentage (.493) while getting his second All-Star appearance (first time starting) and winning his first Silver Slugger Award. However, he also led the league in strikeouts (201). There were also several stats that were not as good as they were in 2024. 2024: .827 OPS | 134 wRC+ | 3.9 fWAR 2025: .806 OPS | 121 wRC+ | 2.9 fWAR Greene did play in more games (157, a career high) and had a significantly better first half of the season as fatigue may have been a factor as the season went on. He only batted .195/.250/.368 the last month of the season. First Half: 397 PA | .284/.335/.544 | 6.0% HR% | 31.5% K% Second Half: 258 PA | .218/.279/.415 | 4.7% HR% | 29.5% K% Strikeouts are a major concern for Greene as he surpassed 30 percent strikeout rate for the first time in his career last year (30.7 percent). Greene has stated that he is going to change his mindset for 2026 as he felt like he was swinging at everything trying to hit a home run. And the stats back this up. His overall swing rate went over 50 percent for the first time last year (52.6 percent) and he chased 32.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone (24.0 percent in 2024). As a result, his walk rate fell to 7.0 percent in 2025 compared to a career high 11.0 percent in 2024. Riley Greene is entering his fifth season with the Tigers in 2026, so it’s easy to forget that he is only entering his age-25 season. His best season likely hasn’t even happened yet. The fact that he sees a flaw in his game and is willing to adjust it shows maturity for someone his age. His home run rate may suffer, but his overall stats should improve if he can get back to the plate discipline that he showed in 2024. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 584 AB | .264/.333/.477 | 29 HR | 97 RBI | 3 SB | 58 BB | 176 K Steamer – 521 AB | .260/.331/.467 | 25 HR | 82 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 158 K ZiPS DC – 586 AB | .268/.334/.487 | 30 HR | 103 RBI | 3 SB | 57 BB | 177 K ATC – 565 AB | .257/.327/.463 | 28 HR | 89 RBI | 4 SB | 56 BB | 176 K THE BAT X – 562 AB | .247/.321/.447 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 4 SB | 58 BB | 182 K OOPSY – 583 AB | .270/.339/.486 | 30 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | 59 BB | 175 K RotoChamp – 568 AB | .261/.330/.468 | 28 HR | 90 RBI | 4 SB | 57 BB | 175 K CBS Sports – 548 AB | .270/.335/.505 | 31 HR | 95 RBI | 3 SB | 50 BB | 176 K ESPN – 588 AB | .255/.318/.469 | 30 HR | 93 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 189 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K 2025 Actual – 600 AB | .258/.313/.493 | 36 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | 46 BB | 201 K 2026 Prediction – 591 AB | .272/.337/.508 | 33 HR | 102 RBI | 2 SB | 56 BB | 174 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #1 – Tarik Daniel Skubal For the second year in a row, Tarik Skubal was the best pitcher in the American League and won his second Cy Young Award. Since 2023, Skubal has had the highest fWAR, 15.9, despite only pitching a half a season in 2023. He’s also second in ERA during that time frame, 2.39, only behind Paul Skenes’ 1.96. Also, during the last three seasons, Skubal has 38 wins, a K/9 of 10.99, a BB/9 of 1.58, and a HR/9 of 0.71. The Tigers haven’t seen this kind of consistency and dominance since Justin Verlander in his prime (more on him later). Skubal has five pitches and just like in 2024, he threw his curveball exclusively against right-handed batters in 2025. One interesting stat is that he threw his changeup more often than any other pitch last year, according to Baseball Savant. This is unusual because normally the fastball is the pitch most often thrown for a pitcher (like it was for Skubal in 2023 and 2024). Changeup: 31.4% 4-seam Fastball: 29.3% Sinker: 23.9% Slider: 12.5% Curveball: 2.8% According to Statcast, Skubal’s changeup value is 26.8, not only making it the best changeup in all of baseball but making it one of the best single pitches in all of baseball; only Bran Woo’s fastball (26.1 pitch value) came close to Skubal’s changeup value. Opponents batted .154 against Skubal’s changeup and 110 of his strikeouts ended with the changeup, so it makes sense that he would throw it more often. One notable trend over the last few seasons is his groundball rate: 2023: 51.6% GB% 2024: 45.7% GB% 2025: 41.0% GB% Normally, I would be concerned over the drop of this rate as I love high ground ball rates as they do the least amount of damage. However, it hasn’t affected Skubal at all. His ERA (2.39 in 2024 and 2.21 in 2025) and FIP (2.49 in 2024 and 2.45 in 2025) remain low. Entering his age 29 season, he is still in his prime years, so keep doing what you’re doing. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 200 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 245 K | 40 BB Steamer – 200 IP | 14-9 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 243 K | 44 BB ZiPS DC – 199 IP | 14-5 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.95 WHIP | 244 K | 37 BB ATC – 188 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.72 ERA | 0.96 WHIP | 228 K | 38 BB THE BAT X – 188 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.58 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 233 K | 37 BB OOPSY – 205 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.55 ERA | 0.99 WHIP | 252 K | 45 BB RotoChamp – 192 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB CBS Sports – 189 IP | 13-6 W/ L | 2.81 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 226 K | 44 BB ESPN – 201 IP | 17 W | 2.73 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 253 K | 38 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 198 2/3 IP | 17-6 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.921 WHIP | 244 K | 35 BB 2025 Actual – 195 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.21 ERA | 0.891 WHIP | 241 K | 33 BB 2026 Prediction – 195 1/3 IP | 19-4 W/L | 2.30 ERA | 0.875 WHIP | 248 K | 32 BB

I asked AI to compare my preseason predictions to what the actual player stats are, and this is what it said. I still plan to do a recap post, butt this is probably better than I could ever come up with. Got it — let’s turn those preseason expectations into a Projection Accuracy Scorecard so you can see, at a glance, which calls were spot‑on and which ones missed the mark. Here’s how I’ll score it: • 5 = Nailed it (projection and reality match almost exactly) • 4 = Close (small variance, same general outcome) • 3 = Mixed (some elements right, some wrong) • 2 = Off (projection missed key outcomes) • 1 = Way Off (projection and reality were very different) 🎯 2025 Tigers Projection Accuracy Player Projection Accuracy Score Notes Tarik Skubal 5 Projected as Cy Young‑level ace — delivered elite ERA, WHIP, K’s exactly as forecast. Jack Flaherty 2 Expected solid rebound; instead had high ERA and HR issues. Reese Olson 4 ERA and style matched projection, but injuries cut innings. Casey Mize 4 Slightly higher ERA than projected, but healthy and productive. Alex Cobb 1 Projection assumed innings; injury erased season. Jackson Jobe 3 Projection nailed flashes of talent and control issues, but ERA/WHIP slightly better than feared. Riley Greene 5 Power breakout exactly as predicted, even slightly better. Kerry Carpenter 5 Platoon usage and power output matched projection perfectly. Colt Keith 3 Rookie streakiness as forecast, but power/contact slightly below hopes. Gleyber Torres 4 OBP boost and moderate power as projected; slight HR dip. Parker Meadows 1 Projection assumed healthy, productive season; injuries and low AVG derailed it. Matt Vierling 1 Expected modest power uptick; instead had major drop‑off. Javier Báez 3 Projection was very bearish; he was better than feared but still below prime. Jake Rogers 4 Defense‑first, low AVG, occasional pop — exactly as expected. Trey Sweeney 2 Projection hoped for adjustment period with flashes; instead struggled heavily. 📌 Summary Stats • Average Score: 3.2 / 5 → Overall, the projections were moderately accurate. • Most Accurate Calls: Skubal, Greene, Carpenter. • Biggest Misses: Cobb (injury), Meadows, Vierling. • Projection Bias: Slight optimism on health and rookie adjustments; otherwise, the tone matched reality for established stars.

The Colorado Rockies have played exactly 1/3 of their games and have 9 wins. That means they are on pace for 9 * 3 = 27 wins. The Tigers are pace to win 103 games.

The 2025 Colorado Rockies have the worst record after 50 games to start the season in the modern era at 8-42. The only team to have a worst record after 50 games in the history of baseball are the 1895 Louisville Colonels at 7-43. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who have the overall worst record in baseball history (20-134) were 9-41 to start the season.

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #15 – Jackson William Jobe Usually I only do 14 predictions, 5 starting pitchers and the 9 everyday hitters. However, I decided to do a bonus one this year since the Tigers have 6 starting pitchers this year that will likely contribute a significant amount of innings due to at least one injury (same thing could be said about the lineup with the injuries, and the way A.J. Hinch plays matchups, the line is a bit more blurred on who is a “starter” and who is a bench player). If Alex Cobb were healthy, it is likely that Jackson Jobe would start the year at AAA, but he has made the opening day roster and depending on how he does, might just stay in Detroit all year. It will be interesting how Cobb will fit in the roster if everyone stays healthy and no one is struggling. Would they send down Jobe if he has an ERA of under 3.00 with a lot of strikeouts and a low WHIP? Jackson Jobe pitched two innings in September, allowing zero runs, one hit, one walk, and striking out two. Due to injuries, Jobe was able to be on the post-season roster, and pitched another 1 2/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing three earned runs, five hits, no walks, and no strikeouts. Of course, this is a very small sample, but at least it gave him a taste of the Major Leagues as he was expected to get called up to the MLB at some point in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, Jobe threw a 4-seamer, cutter, changeup, and sweeper (slider?) in his brief time with the Tigers. Reports say he has also added a sinker. Here are the scouting grades according to MLB.com (on a scale of 20-80): Fastball - 70 Slider – 70 Changeup – 60 Cutter – 60 Control – 55 Overall – 60 Control is Jackson’s Jobe’s biggest issue as his walk rate was pretty high in the minor leagues in 2024. 2022 – 77 1/3 IP | 3.84 ERA | 24.3 K% | 9.0 BB% | 18.4% HR/FB% 2023 – 64 IP | 2.81 ERA | 32.6% K% | 2.3% BB% | 16.4% HR/FB% 2024 – 91 2/3 IP | 2.36 ERA | 25.6% K% | 12.0% BB% | 4.1% HR/FB% Jobe’s fastball typically sits around 95-97 MPH, but can get it up to 100 MPH at times (reminds me of Justin Verlander), so he should be able to have a high strikeout rate. Jobe has never pitched over 100 innings in his professional career, so it will be interesting to see how he gets used as the season progresses. I will not be surprised if they move him to the bullpen at some point to limit his innings, especially if they are in position to make the playoffs again and want to rest him so he can be ready to make a playoff start. Just like with Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney and every other rookie, it’s hard to predict how Jobe will do with an extended stint in the Major Leagues. Hitters will adjust as scouting reports make their way through the league and then Jobe will have to adjust. Not to mention if his control is going to be a big problem. Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus all have Jobe as a top five prospect heading into the 2025 season and is a favorite of winning the Rookie of the Year Award. Regardless of what happens, I am very excited to see him pitch this year. And with any of these predictions, rookie or veteran, no one knows exactly what will happen. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 112 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 87 K | 42 BB Steamer – 130 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.65 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 100 K | 49 BB ZiPS DC – 94 IP | 4-5 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 35 BB ATC – 106 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.46 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 87 K | 39 BB THE BAT – 106 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 90 K | 35 BB OOPSY – 112 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.23 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 98 K | 49 BB RotoChamp – 108 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 88 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 4.01 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 105 K | 42 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 12 1/3 IP | 1-1 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 8 K | 4 BB 2025 Prediction – 133 2/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.399 WHIP | 146 K | 70 BB This is the last prediction that I’m going to do this year, mainly because tomorrow is opening day. I could easily do a prediction on more hitters as it’s hard to tell who will end up playing the most this year due to injuries and production. Spencer Torkelson could be the everyday DH and hit 30 home runs again. Manuel Margot, who looks to be the opening day centerfielder, could start out hot and gain more playing time even when Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling are healthy. Jace Jung could still get the most innings at third base, even with starting the year at AAA. At the same time, Zach McKinstry or Andy Ibanez could also end up as the everyday third baseman. But I made my predictions, and I think at the end, this is what I think the lineup will look like: CF Parker Meadows 2B Gleyber Torres LF Riley Greene DH Kerry Carpenter 1B Colt Keith RF Matt Vierling 3B Javier Baez C Jake Rogers SS Trey Sweeney Not to mention any mid-season trades (hopefully the Tigers will be buyers this year instead of sellers). Well, I guess there’s nothing left to do but say: GO TIGERS!!!

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction - #14 – Trey Thomas Sweeney The Tigers acquired Trey Sweeney at last year’s trade deadline when they sold Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only did they make the playoffs anyway, but Flaherty resigned with the Tigers, essentially getting Sweeney for a rental. Sweeney was called up in mid-August and became the regular shortstop for the remainder of the season when Javier Baez was out due to injury. He hit .218/.269/.373 with four home runs and an 81 wRC+ in 119 plate appearances. He looks to start 2025 as the starting shortstop again with Baez getting plenty of playing time at third base to start the season. Will Sweeney be able to stay at the Major League club, or will he struggle and get sent down to AAA? Trey Sweeney’s stint in Toledo was brief, but man did he hit. LAD AAA – 440 PA | .254/.334/.427 | 13 HR | 88 wRC+ DET AAA – 47 PA | .381/.447/.667 | 2 HR | 187 wRC+ DET MLB – 119 PA | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 81 wRC+ Of course, small sample sizes apply, but it may show that Sweeney has nothing left to prove in AAA and it’s sink or swim time at the Major League level. Many experts are predicting that the 25-year old will struggle this year, which is typical for a rookie. One area I would like to see Sweeney improve on is his walk rate. He has shown to have a good walk rate in the minor leagues, but it was less than impressive at the Major League level. 2021 – 138 PA | 15.9% BB% | 22.5% K% | 25.0% HR/FB% 2022 – 508 PA | 13.0% BB% | 23.2% K% | 13.7% HR/FB% 2023 – 472 PA | 13.8% BB% | 19.1% K% | 9.3% HR/FB% 2024 (MiLB) – 487 PA | 10.1% BB% | 26.7% K% | 18.1% HR/FB% 2024 (MLB) – 119 PA | 5.9% BB% | 26.9% K% | 12.5% HR/FB% Sweeney also showed some speed in the minor leagues. In 2022, he stole 31 bases; in 2023 he stole 20 bases; and in 2024 he stole 20 bases (plus 2 more with the Tigers at the ML level). If he can get his walk rate to 10 percent or above, combined with around 20 stolen bases, he could be a good candidate to hit at the top of the order along with Parker Meadows in the coming years. Power numbers usually come later, and Trey Sweeney didn’t even show bad power numbers in his Major League time last year. He had a .155 ISO with a 7.6 percent extra base hit rate. He had a .183 ISO and a 9.4 percent extra base hit rate in AAA last year (LAD and DET combined). These numbers are right around what Parker Meadows showed last year with the Tigers after spending some time in AAA. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that Sweeney can get it that high within the next few years. It’s always hard to predict what a rookie will do. Trey Sweeney has the Major League experience and has put up better than decent numbers in the minor leagues. But at the same time, it is a big leap from AAA to MLB and some hitters take longer to adjust. It’s best to be optimistic, but cautious. I think his season will be similar to Colt Keith’s last year, just a lot of ups and downs as he is adjusting but finishing around an average wRC+. Hopefully there won’t be too many downs that they have to send him to AAA again, but even so, it has helped other players before. I’m excited to see what Sweeney will do this year, regardless. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 341 AB | .224/.294/.363 | 9 HR | 39 RBI | 9 SB | 31 BB | 102 K Steamer – 280 AB | .226/.296/.365 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 82 K ZiPS DC – 342 AB | .222/.292/.361 | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 10 SB | 31 BB | 104 K ATC – 309 AB | .217/.284/.354 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 92 K THE BAT X – 310 AB | .214/.279/.352 | 8 HR | 33 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 95 K OOPSY – 342 AB | .222/.289/.369 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 10 SB | 30 BB | 105 K RotoChamp – 320 AB | .219/.292/.359 | 9 HR | 8 SB | 28 BB | 97 K CBS Sports – 371 AB | .243/.297/.407 | 13 HR | 12 SB | 27 BB | 98 K ESPN – 421 AB | .219/.305/.361 | 12 HR | 16 SB | 49 BB | 119 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 110 AB | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 17 RBI | 2 SB | 7 BB | 32 K 2025 Prediction – 408 AB | .230/.301/.400 | 15 HR | 43 RBI | 15 SB | 39 BB | 123 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #13 – Alexander Miller Cobb The Tigers have just finalized the last two rotation spots; Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe will join Tark Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson in the starting rotation to start the 2025 season. So, where does this leave Alex Cobb? The Tigers signed Cobb to a 1-year, $15 million contract in the offseason to help bolster their starting rotation, which lacked depth at the end of the 2024 season. However, Cobb only made three starts in 2024 and will start the season on the injured list. I would be surprised, though, if the Tigers spent $15 million on someone who would just end up in the bullpen. Even Kenta Maeda went a half a season in the rotation before being demoted to the bullpen, and Cobb has shown much better stats recently. Since 2021, Alex Cobb has pitched 410 2/3 innings with a 3.75 ERA, 390 strikeouts, 116 walks with a 111 ERA+ and a 3.29 FIP. He has had an ERA of under 4.00 in each of the last four seasons, has struck out more than nine per nine innings twice, and made one All-Star appearance. In his last start of the 2024 season, he took a perfect game into the 7th inning before allowing a base hit. Alex Cobb primarily throws a sinker, split finger, and knuckle curve with a very occasional four-seamer (which might just be a misclassified sinker). He started throwing a slider in 2023 but abandoned it in his short 2024 season. It’ll be interesting to see if he goes back to it in 2025. He only threw his slider 5.1 percent of the time in 2023 and hitters hit .333 against it in 24 plate appearances. He primarily uses his sinker/split finger combo to get hitters out on ground balls. In 2023, Alex Cobb induced 57.6 percent ground balls, second most in baseball (min. 150 innings) with only his teammate, Logan Webb, having a higher rate (62.1 percent). Cobb has a career ground ball rate of 54.6 percent and it has never been below 46 percent in any of his 13 years in the Majors. Since he made his Major League debut in 2011, only Dallas Keuchel (57.6 percent), Marcus Stroman (55.9 percent), and Trevor Cahill (54.8 percent) have had a higher ground ball rate than Alex Cobb (min. 1000 innings). If you’ve read any of my other predictions for pitchers, you’ll know I love pitchers with high ground ball rates as it minimizes the damage they can do. Add a high strikeout rate and it’s easy to see why he has had an ERA below 4.00 his last four years. 2021 – 93 1/3 IP | 24.9% K% | 8.4% BB% | 8.2% HR/FB% 2022 – 149 2/3 IP | 23.9% K% | 6.8% BB% | 10.2% HR/FB% 2023 – 151 1/3 IP | 20.3% K% | 5.7% BB% | 18.3% HR/FB% The walk rate is trending in the right direction, while the home runs are trending in the opposite direction. If he can put together a walk rate as low as 6 percent with a low home run rate and maintain a 20 percent strikeout rate, he could have another good year in 2025. At least Comerica Park is a stadium that can limit home runs. The biggest problem is his health. His highest number of innings he has every pitched in a year was 179 1/3 in 2017. He has only pitched over 100 innings twice since 2019. Another drawback is his age; he’ll be entering his age-37 season in 2025. This is an age where most pitchers are in their decline. He did, however, make his first and only All-Star game at the age of 35, so maybe the normal aging curve doesn’t apply here, especially since he hasn’t accumulated many innings in his career. Hopefully, he can get healthy and continue to generate ground balls and add depth to the Tigers starting rotation. There’s also the Chris Fetter factor, who has improved most pitchers after coming to Detroit (just don’t ask Kenta Meada). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 95 IP | 5-6 W/L | 3.82 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB Steamer – 100 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 83 K | 28 BB ZiPS DC – 90 IP | 4-5 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 30 BB ATC – 83 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.84 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 68 K | 23 BB THE BAT – 83 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.26 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 63 K | 23 BB OOPSY – 94 IP | 7-6 W/L | 3.81 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 83 K | 29 BB RotoChamp – 87 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.93 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 71 K | 26 BB CBS Sports – 113 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 92 K | 25 BB ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 3.93 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 91 K | 31 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 16 1/3 IP | 2-1 W/L | 2.76 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 10 K | 3 BB 2025 Prediction – 101 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.317 WHIP | 85 K | 27 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #12 – Matthew Gregory Vierling Matt Vierling has played all over the field since he has been called up by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021. He has at least one game played at every position except pitcher, catcher, and shortstop. For the Tigers, he has mostly played rightfield and third base, which coincidently are two positions that are wide open at the moment. He has also had 500+ plate appearances with the Tigers over the last two seasons, so he has basically been an everyday player. Unfortunately, Vierling is currently on the injured list and will not be ready by opening day. But once he’s healthy, he’ll likely resume the role of an everyday super utility player. Matt Vierling had career highs in home runs (16), RBI (57), wRC+ (108) and WAR (2.6 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR) last year. He was one of the most reliable hitters on the Tigers last year after Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. His .166 ISO and 8.6 percent extra base rate were also career highs for the 27-year old, who is just entering his prime years. He had a .309 xWOBA compared to his actual wOBA of .317, suggesting that luck wasn’t much of a factor. Barring any setbacks due to injury, it looks like he should be able to build on these numbers in 2025. Looking at some of his batted ball data over the last two seasons: 2023 – 48.5% GB% | 30.8% FB% | 20.7% LD% | 33.9% Pull% | 33.3% Cent% | 32.8% Oppo% 2024 – 42.1% GB% | 37.8% FB% | 20.1% LD% | 38.6% Pull% | 35.8% Cent% | 25.6% Oppo% The increase in fly ball rate explains the increase in home runs. While it would be nice to see him go the opposite way more often to maybe increase his batting average, he only hit one home run the opposite way. When Vierling pulled the ball, he hit .390 with a .779 slugging percentage in 2024, so having him continue to pull the ball might be the better option. According to Baseball Savant, his squared-up rate (81 percentile), chase percentage (89 percentile) and whiff rate (78 percentile) were all above average. Despite the good chase percentage and whiff rate, his strikeout rate was only slightly below league average at 21.3 percent and very similar to the 21.1 percent in 2023. His walk rate decreased from 8.3 percent in 2023 to 7.2 percent in 2024, although most people will take the trade of walks for more power. Just like with Parker Meadows, it’s hard to predict just how his injury will affect his season and playing time. He’s right at the stage of his career where he should have the best numbers of his career, but at the same time he’ll never be the kind of hitter that Riley Greene is (or will be). I think it’s safe to say that he will be a slightly above-average hitter once again in 2025 when he is fully healthy, which anyone would take from a player who can play multiple positions. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 424 AB | .254/.317/.395 | 11 HR | 46 RBI | 6 SB | 37 BB | 100 K Steamer – 376 AB | .253/.317/.396 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 33 BB | 89 K ZiPS DC – 425 AB | .254/.317/.394 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 100 K ATC – 413 AB | .253/.315/.399 | 11 HR | 45 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 96 K THE BAT X – 413 AB | .253/.314/.397 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 34 BB | 92 K OOPSY – 425 AB | .251/.314/.386 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 7 SB | 37 BB | 96 K RotoChamp – 417 AB | .254/.315/.396 | 11 HR | 7 SB | 36 BB | 96 K CBS Sports – 334 AB | .266/.327/.428 | 10 HR | 4 SB | 28 BB | 82 K ESPN – 457 AB | .260/.320/.411 | 12 HR | 8 SB | 39 BB | 104 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 518 AB | .257/.312/.423 | 16 HR | 57 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 121 K 2025 Prediction – 422 AB | .258/.318/.427 | 13 HR | 47 RBI | 6 SB | 36 BB | 95 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #11 – Ednel Javier Baez Javier Baez has been with Detroit since 2022, and every year has been worse than the previous, 89 wRC+ in 2022; 63 wRC+ in 2023; and 43 wRC+ in 2024. Baez missed half a season worth of games last year due to hip injury that required season ending surgery. The injury could explain some of his struggles in 2024 and it’ll be nice to see if he can bounce back some when he’s fully healthy, but the 6/year, $140 million contract looks to be one of the worst in baseball history. With three years remaining and $25 million owed this year, the Tigers are not going to just cut him, so he’ll get plenty of playing time in 2025, especially now that he is playing some games at third base now that they have sent Jace Jung to the minor leagues (there’s also talk about playing him some in centerfield). Entering his age 32 season, Javier Baez is far removed from his prime years. From 2017-2021, Baez hit .271/.312/.503 with an average of 25 home runs a year. Since joining the Tigers in 2022, Baez has hit .221/.262/.347 with a 70 wRC+. The 70 wRC+ since 2022 is the fourth worst in baseball (min. 1000 PA) behind Myles Straw (67 wRC+). Nicky Lopez (68 wRC+), and Tim Anderson (69 wRC+). There are plenty of stats that show Baez’ decline. He usually always struggled with off-speed pitches (except for 2019), but during his prime he was able to hit the fastball as well as the curveball. Fastball: 2017 – 258 PA | .309 BA | .523 SLG 2018 – 305 PA | .308 BA | .566 SLG 2019 – 275 PA | .267 BA | .516 SLG 2020 – 106 PA | .253 BA | .394 SLG 2021 – 264 PA | .267 BA | .487 SLG ----------------------------------------------- 2022 – 235 PA | .271 BA | .459 SLG 2023 – 246 PA | .206 BA | .284 SLG 2024 – 135 PA | .200 BA | .292 SLG Breaking: 2017 – 181 PA | .236 BA | .466 SLG 2018 – 263 PA | .285 BA | .570 SLG 2019 – 219 PA | .296 BA | .556 SLG 2020 – 107 PA | .158 BA | .297 SLG 2021 – 210 PA | .290 BA | .545 SLG ----------------------------------------------- 2022 – 272 PA | .213 BA | .369 SLG 2023 – 229 PA | .231 BA | .348 SLG 2024 – 125 PA | .171 BA | .308 SLG 2020 was an odd year, shortened because of Covid and probably should be taken out for analysis. This is also a long-winded way of saying that Baez has lost his power, although his home run rate increased from 1.7 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2024 and his extra base hit percentage increased from 5.7 percent in 2023 to 6.2 percent in 2024. Still far away from his peak numbers of 5.7 percent home run rate and 12.9 percent extra base hit percentage. Maybe injuries were a major factor the last few years and now that Baez has had surgery, he will produce better in 2025. Although, age is not on his side and it’s not like he is hitting well in Spring Training. There is still the possibility that he won’t even get 400 plate appearances. I fully expect another disappointing season, although I have been surprised before. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 339 AB | .234/.278/.373 | 10 HR | 41 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 88 K Steamer – 264 AB | .237/.280/.381 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 6 SB | 13 BB | 66 K ZiPS DC – 340 AB | .231/.275/.365 | 9 HR | 42 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 92 K ATC – 310 AB | .227/.271/.359 | 8 HR | 36 RBI | 7 SB | 15 BB | 80 K THE BAT X – 307 AB | .232/.276/.369 | 9 HR | 35 RBI | 7 SB | 15 BB | 80 K OOPSY – 339 AB | .234/.280/.388 | 11 HR | 39 RBI | 9 SB | 18 BB | 91 K RotoChamp – 319 AB | .229/.275/.364 | 9 HR | 7 SB | 16 BB | 83 K CBS Sports – 318 AB | .217/.264/.343 | 8 HR | 9 SB | 16 BB | 83 K ESPN – 172 AB | .221/.262/.343 | 4 HR | 4 SB | 8 BB | 43 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 527 AB | .235/.282/.372 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 12 SB | 26 BB | 136 K 2024 Actual – 272 AB | .184/.221/.294 | 6 HR | 37 RBI | 8 SB | 12 BB | 69 K 2025 Prediction – 394 AB | .216/.255/.330 | 9 HR | 49 RBI | 8 SB | 18 BB | 102 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #10 – Casey Arthur Mize One of the biggest problems for Casey Mize is his inability to stay healthy. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and missed two months in 2024 with a strained hamstring. Overall, Mize has only pitched 291 innings since his Major League debut in late 2020 with a 4.36 ERA, an 18.2 percent strikeout rate, a 6.8 percent walk rate, and a 4.60 FIP. Mize only has two seasons in which he has over 100 innings pitched, 2021 and 2024. And both show that luck was involved, but in complete opposite directions. 2021 – 150 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 4.71 FIP | .254 BABIP 2024 – 102 1/3 IP | 4.49 ERA | 3.95 FIP | .331 BABIP The biggest factor in the high FIP in 2021 was the home runs, 1.44 HR/9 vs. 0.97 HR/9 in 2024. While he was able to mitigate the home runs in 2024, the high BABIP resulted in a higher ERA. In 2021, his BABIP was one of the lowest in all of baseball and resulted in a lower ERA. Maybe everything can even out in 2025, now that he is fully healthy. One thing in common in both years are the high ground ball rates, 48.1 percent in 2021 and 49.0 percent in 2024. Just like with Reese Olson, having a high ground ball rate can limit the damage that opposing hitters can do. However, several more ground balls resulted in hits in 2024, .268 batting average on ground balls vs. .212 batting average on ground balls in 2024. Luck was likely a factor, but Mize also had a higher hard hit rate in 2024, 44.6 percent vs. 39.8 percent in 2021, which can result in more hits and explains the higher BABIP. According to Baseball Savant, Casey Mize throws a 4-seamer, slider, split finger, sinker, and knuckle curve. I think the sinker is the most interesting. In 2024, he changed his strategy and threw it exclusively against right-handed batters, but it was his most hittable pitch, with a .341 batting average against. However, no one hit a home run off of it in 46 plate appearances as opposed to in 2021, when he gave up eight home runs in 168 plate appearances with a .318 batting average against. It’ll be interesting to see what changes he makes in 2025 and if he’ll be more like Reese Olson and have more pitches be exclusive based on the handedness of the batter. For 2025, Casey Mize looks primed for a breakout year for the 28-year old. During Spring Training, his split finger looks a lot better, his fastball velocity has increased as usually seen from pitcher who have had Tommy John surgery, and he has give up zero runs in 11 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts (although ST stats should always be taken with a grain of salt). With Alex Cobb injured, there are currently two spots open for the rotation with four candidates, Mize, rookie Jackson Jobe, Kenta Maeda, and Keinder Montero. I think Mize has a spot locked up, but we’ll have to wait for them to officially announce it. Even if he doesn’t, I still think he’ll contribute significant enough innings as injuries are always a factor. I just hope Mize can stay healthy himself. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 118 IP | 6-6 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 94 K | 33 BB Steamer – 124 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.16 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 100 K | 35 BB ZiPS DC – 112 IP | 4-4 W/L | 4.33 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 88 K | 32 BB ATC – 125 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.28 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 99 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 125 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 93 K | 34 BB OOPSY – 116 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.15 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 96 K | 36 BB RotoChamp – 123 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 97 K | 35 BB CBS Sports – 135 IP | 3-8 W/L | 3.53 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 111 K | 31 BB ESPN – 111 IP | 6 W | 4.14 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 82 K | 35 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP | 5-9 W/L | 4.71 ERA | 1.357 WHIP | 89 K | 43 BB 2024 Actual – 102 1/3 IP | 2-6 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.47 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB 2025 Prediction – 125 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 102 K | 34 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #9 – Jacob Ray Rogers After missing the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, Jake Rogers showed plenty of power in 2023 with 21 home runs and a .224 ISO. However, he was not able to replicate that power in 2024, only hitting ten home runs with a weak batting line of .197/.255/.352, making my 2024 prediction look hilariously bad (but not as bad as Spencer Torkelson’s!). What happened to his power and can he regain it in 2025? 2021 – 127 PA | .257 ISO | 11.0% XBH% | 4.7% HR% | 18.8% HR/FB% 2023 – 365 PA | .224 ISO | 8.8% XBH% | 5.8% HR% | 23.3% HR/FB% 2024 – 337 PA | .155 ISO | 8.0% XBH% | 3.0% HR% | 11.0% HR/FB% While 2021 was a relatively small sample size, Rogers was able to sustain or improve on some of the power numbers in 2023. However, his power numbers have significantly gone down in 2024 for the not yet 30-year old. Part of the reason for this is his splits against left-handed pitchers. In 2023, Rogers hit .235/.296/.561 vs. southpaws in 108 plate appearances with an 8.3 percent home run rate. In 2024, Rogers only hit .169/.258/.241 vs. southpaws in 93 plate appearances with only a 1.1 percent home run rate. That’s a huge drop and not something a manager that loves to play the matchups like A.J. Hinch wants to see. Jake Rogers also wasn’t able to hit the fastball as well as he did in 2023. With plate appearances that ended in a fastball over the last two seasons: 2023 – 211 PA | .220/.243/.489 | 15 HR 2024 – 191 PA | .184/.214/.368 | 7 HR It’s also interesting to see that Rogers has been able to lower his strikeout rate every year and, at the same time, his walk rate has also decreased. 2019 – 128 PA | 10.2% BB% | 39.8% K% 2021 – 127 PA | 8.7% BB% | 36.2% K% 2023 – 365 PA | 7.7% BB% | 32.3% K% 2024 – 337 PA | 6.5% BB% | 29.4% K% While it’s nice to see his strikeout rate below 30 percent, I do hope his walk rate trend doesn’t continue. Maybe he is overaggressive, trying to put the ball in play more. But he should be more selective, be patient to draw more walks with the risk of looking at a called third strike. Lucky, the Tigers rely on Jake Rogers more for his defense than his offense. According to Baseball Savant, Rogers was elite in Fielding Run Value (95th percentile), Blocks Above Average (89th percentile), and Framing (91st percentile). Now that Rogers is entering his age-30 season, it’s unlikely that the power numbers will return and with 2023 looking like a fluke. He may be able to get his batting average potentially back to over .200, but he will probably only hit a dozen or so home runs. As long as the defense is there, that is just alright. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 348 AB | .212/.277/.380 | 14 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 116 K Steamer – 312 AB | .215/.280/.384 | 13 HR | 39 RBI | 3 SB | 26 BB | 101 K ZiPS DC – 348 AB | .209/.275/.376 | 13 HR | 46 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 120 K ATC – 308 AB | .208/.274/.376 | 12 HR | 39 RBI | 1 SB | 25 BB | 102 K THE BAT X – 306 AB | .208/.277/.366 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 2 SB | 26 BB | 104 K OOPSY – 348 AB | .215/.279/.382 | 14 HR | 42 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 115 K RotoChamp – 321 AB | .212/.284/.374 | 12 HR | 40 RBI | 2 SB | 27 BB | 107 K CBS Sports – 380 AB | .226/.291/.437 | 20 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 124 K ESPN – 376 AB | .213/.277/.402 | 17 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 338 AB | .213/.282/.417 | 19 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K 2023 Actual – 310 AB | .197/.255/.352 | 10 HR | 36 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 99 K 2024 Prediction – 316 AB | .203/.264/.367 | 12 HR | 41 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 109 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #8 – Parker Meadows After a brief stint with the Tigers in 2023 when he hit .232 with three home runs in 145 plate appearances, Parker Meadows made the Tigers team out of Spring Training in 2024. However, he struggled mightily, with a batting average below .100, and was sent back down to AAA in early May. Something must have clicked as he hit better than he ever did before. The Tigers brought him back up in early July and he continued to mash, adding a big boost to the offense, helping the Tigers into the playoffs. 3/28/2024 – 5/6/2024 – 85 PA | .096/.224/.219 | 2 HR | 12.9 % BB% | 37.6% K% AAA (2024) – 237 PA | .292/.388/.495 | 8 HR | 12.7% BB% | 19.0% K% 7/5/2024 – 9/29/2024 – 213 PA | .299/.344/.513 | 7 HR | 6.6% BB% | 20.7% K% Parker Meadow’s second half surge is an encouraging sign, but one has to wonder how much of it is sustainable for a full season. His BABIP was .354, which does suggest some good fortune. His overall xBA was only .229 and his xSLG was .382 while his actual batting average and slugging percentage were .244 and .433, respectfully. While I do think he has finally figured some things out, I wouldn’t expect a .300 batting average or a .500 slugging percentage in 2025. One thing Meadow’s was able to do in the first half with the Tigers last year was an above average walk rate, 12.9 percent. He was able to sustain that in AAA, but it was cut in half in the second half as he was also putting the ball in play more. Given a full season, I think he can once again have an above average walk rate north of 10 percent, especially if he is hitting first or second and actively trying to get on base. Parker Meadow’s biggest asset might just be his defense. Even in 82 games, he was able to have a 5 DRS and a 4.5 UZR/150. Given a full season, he should be in contention for a Gold Glove Award. Another big asset is his speed. He tied Riley Greene and Wenceel Perez with six triples in far less plate appearances. He was second on the team with nine stolen bases and stole another 19 in AAA. I could easily see him steal 20+ bases in a full season with the Tigers. Unfortunately, Meadows hasn’t even begun baseball activities this Spring yet due to an upper arm nerve issue and may not be ready on Opening Day. The injury factor is always hard to predict as you never know how many games to account for. He could miss a week or three months. A fully healthy Meadows entering his age-25 season after a promising second half of the season could have a 20/20 season with an above average OPS+. But what does Meadows look like after coming off an injury that may or may not bother him all season? Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 469 AB | .234/.307/.396 | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 18 SB | 47 BB | 121 K Steamer – 455 AB | .236/.311/.397 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 19 SB | 47 BB | 118 K ZiPS DC – 470 AB | .232/.302/.394 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 18 SB | 45 BB | 122 K ATC – 457 AB | .236/.308/.400 | 14 HR | 50 RBI | 19 SB | 45 BB | 120 K THE BAT X – 461 AB | .229/.296/.393 | 15 HR | 51 RBI | 16 SB | 42 BB | 124 K OOPSY – 473 AB | .231/.295/.385 | 13 HR | 49 RBI | 19 SB | 42 BB | 128 K RotoChamp – 462 AB | .232/.309/.392 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 18 SB | 44 BB | 122 K CBS Sports – 414 AB | .254/.320/.452 | 16 HR | 46 RBI | 16 SB | 39 BB | 112 K ESPN – 519 AB | .235/.316/.418 | 16 HR | 52 RBI | 21 SB | 60 BB | 132 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 480 AB | .244/.327/.400 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 21 SB | 56 BB | 139 K 2024 Actual – 270 AB | .244/.310/.433 | 9 HR | 28 RBI | 9 SB | 25 BB | 76 K 2025 Prediction – 455 AB | .248/.336/.453 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 116 K