bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #8 – Gleyber David Torres In a somewhat surprising move, Gleyber Torres decided to accept the Tigers’ qualifying offer of $22.025 million for 2026 instead of testing the Free Agent market. The All-Star had a very good first year with the Tigers, hitting .256/.358/.387 with a 113 rWC+ and 2.6 fWAR and might have gotten a multi-year deal in the open market but decided to stay another year with the Tigers. The first thing that I notice from Torres last year were the walk and strikeout rates, which were a big improvement from 2024. 2023 – 10.0% BB% | 14.6% K% | 12.6% HR/FB% 2024 – 9.8% BB% | 20.5% K% | 8.1% HR/FB% 2025 – 13.5% BB% | 16.1% K% | 9.0% HR/FB% According to Statcast, Torres only chased 17.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone; only Juan Soto had a lower chase rate at 16.2 percent. Hopefully this isn’t a fluke, and he can carry this into 2026. The power numbers are down from what he did early in his career, but if he can continue with these plate discipline numbers, he’ll still contribute a lot. Another thing of note is his first half/second half splits. He started out strong but really struggled in the second half. First Half – 359 PA | .281/.387/.425 | 14.2% BB% | 12.8% K% | 2.5% HR% Second Half – 269 PA | .223/.320/.339 | 12.6% BB% | 20.4% K% | 2.6% HR% It was later revealed that he had a hernia that he was playing through that required off-season surgery. It’ll be interesting to see if Torres can keep up his first half numbers over a full healthy season. Even with the injury, there are signs that Torres was having just plain bad luck. According to Baseball Savant, his expected numbers were better than his real numbers. Real – .256 AVG | .387 SLG | .332 wOBA Expected – .269 xBA | .462 xSLG | .363 xwOBA Torres is still under 30, right in the middle of his prime years. Even though he’s unlikely going to get his power numbers back (I’d be shocked if he hit 30 homers again), he is still a valuable hitter and whatever adjustments he made in the first half of 2025, I hope that continues for 2026. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 572 AB | .260/.347/.407 | 18 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 74 BB | 113 K Steamer – 555 AB | .260/.346/.406 | 18 HR | 66 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K ZiPS DC – 571 AB | .261/.348/.409 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 6 SB | 75 BB | 113 K ATC – 554 AB | .257/.343/.401 | 17 HR | 68 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K THE BAT X – 554 AB | .256/.340/.398 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 7 SB | 70 BB | 110 K OOPSY – 576 AB | .263/.347/.410 | 19 HR | 74 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 111 K RotoChamp – 561 AB | .260/.346/.408 | 18 HR | 70 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 110 K CBS Sports – 495 AB | .261/.343/.394 | 14 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 61 BB | 109 K ESPN – 537 AB | .259/.353/.399 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 4 SB | 79 BB | 111 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 592 AB | .260/.335/.395 | 12 HR | 66 RBI | 15 SB | 67 BB | 134 K 2025 Actual – 532 AB | .256/.358/.387 | 16 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 101 K 2026 Prediction – 552 AB | .268/.365/.411 | 16 HR | 77 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 104 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #7 – Francis Dillon Dingler Dillion Dingler took over for Jake Rogers and became the primary catcher in 2025. He had a decent batting average (.278), showed some power (13 home runs, .147 ISO) and had the highest fWAR of any Tigers position player (4.1) thanks to above average defense that also awarded him a Gold Glove. Can he continue this into 2026 or will he have a sophomore slump? Having only one year of data, it’s hard to predict because you don’t know what is luck and what can be repeated. For example, Dingler’s BABIP is .345. This is a pretty high number. Not impossible, but usually only the elite hitters are this high (Miguel Cabrera’s BABIP was .340 for his career). Yet, Dingler has had a pretty high BABIP throughout his minor league career: 2022 (AA) - .335 BABIP 2023 (A, AA, AAA) - .327 BABIP 2024 (AAA) - .337 BABIP Another likely regression is his line drive rate of 28.2 percent, the highest of any Major League hitter with at least 400 plate appearances (Zach McKinstry was second with a 26.0 percent line drive rate. This is all of baseball, not just the Tigers). Dingler never had this high of a line drive rate in the minor leagues, but was close in 2024. 2022 (AA) – 22.4% LD% 2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 18.1% LD% 2024 (AAA) – 27.5% LD% According to FanGraphs, Dingler’s batting average on line drives was .747. Usually, the league average is around .720. Considering all of this, I do expect a lower overall batting average from Dingler in 2026. One area of improvement that I can see from Dingler is his 4.9 percent walk rate, which has been a lot higher in the minor leagues. 2022 (AA) – 10.0% BB% | 31.9% K% | 13.9% HR/FB 2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 11.0% BB% | 27.6% | 17.0% HR/FB 2024 (AAA) – 10.0% BB% | 20.3% K% | 20.2% HR/FB 2025 – 4.9% BB% | 23.5% BB% | 11.1% HR/FB Lastly, I want to look at his splits. Sometimes a hitter can get off to a hot streak right away, but then cool off as pitchers figure him out. First Half – 265 PA | .265/.306/.414 | 3.4% BB% | 23.8% K% | 3.0% HR% Second Half – 204 PA | .296/.355/.441 | 6.9% BB% | 23.0% K% | 2.5% HR% Dingler had the opposite of this, better numbers almost across the board in the second half last year. June was his worst month, when he hit .209/.239/.358. Dingler’s strong finish is encouraging and hopefully it’ll carry through to this season. Again, it’s really difficult to figure out a prediction on essentially just one year of Major League data. The areas that will regress could be evened out by the areas where he genuinely is improving. He could repeat, improve to a career year, or regress down to a below average hitter. In cases like this, I’m usually conservative. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 389 AB | .245/.306/.404 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 107 K Steamer – 296 AB | .245/.305/.404 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 79 K ZiPS DC – 390 AB | .244/.308/.405 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K ATC – 382 AB | .242/.300/.395 | 12 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 26 BB | 105 K THE BAT X – 383 AB | .241/.296/.385 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 2 SB | 24 BB | 104 K OOPSY – 388 AB | .243/.305/.403 | 14 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 28 BB | 107 K RotoChamp – 384 AB | .242/.295/.396 | 12 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 105 K CBS Sports – 404 AB | .267/.327/.426 | 13 HR | 54 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K ESPN – 418 AB | .268/.331/.428 | 14 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 33 BB | 117 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 435 AB | .278/.327/.425 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 110 K 2026 Prediction – 408 AB | .238/.307/.385 | 11 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 104 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #6 – Jack Rafe Flaherty Jack Flaherty’s 2025 season was disappointing compared to his 2024 season, in which he won a World Series after the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers. 2024 – 162 IP | 3.17 ERA | 29.9% K% | 5.9% BB% | 3.48 FIP 2025 – 161 IP | 4.64 ERA | 27.6% K% | 8.7% BB% | 3.85 FIP Flaherty decided to exercise his $20 million player option and stay in Detroit for the 2026 season instead of hitting Free Agency again. The stat that immediately jumps out is his walk rate. After a career-low 5.9 percent in 2024, Flaherty’s walk rate jumped back up to his career normal 8.7 percent in 2025. More walks, more baserunners, more chances to score, higher ERA. The plate discipline stats do show that hitters were swinging less out of the strike zone (30.3 percent compared to 33.3 percent in 2024) and had less overall swinging strikes (11.3 percent compared to 13.3 percent in 2024), however his called strikes were exactly the same in the last two years (18 percent). He still remains an above average strikeout pitcher; his 10.5 K/9 in 2025 was fifth in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 150 innings. It’ll be interesting to see if the ABS challenge system will have any impact on his numbers. Flaherty throws mainly a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, and a slider. He’ll throw a changeup, but almost exclusively to left-handed batters. His knuckle curve was his best pitch in 2024 and had the highest value of any knuckle curve in baseball. However, that value dropped to a below average pitch for him 2025, despite throwing it more often than his slider for the first time in his career. Here’s a breakdown of how hitters did against his knuckle curve: 2024 – .164 AVG | .219 SLG | 1 HR | 2440 spin 2025 - .205 AVG | .380 SLG | 6 HR | 2389 spin His expected batting average against was at .177 in 2025, so maybe there was some bad luck involved? Maybe he needs to throw his slider more to make his knuckle curve more effective? I’m no expert on spin rates, but less spin isn’t considered a good thing either. There are some stats here that imply that Flaherty’s 2025 may have had some back luck in them. His FIP was almost 0.80 runs lower than his ERA and his expected batting average against (.233) was almost identical to 2024 (.232), however his inflated walk rate is a concern as well as his knuckle curve. Flaherty is still only entering his age 30 season, so he is still considered in his prime years. A bounce-back season is very possible, but can he get back to his 2024 numbers? Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 160 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 58 BB Steamer – 163 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.89 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 177 K | 57 BB ZiPS DC – 157 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.14 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 175 K | 59 BB ATC – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB THE BAT X – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 170 K | 49 BB OOPSY – 161 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 175 K | 56 BB RotoChamp – 157 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.96 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB CBS Sports – 139 IP | 11-8 W/ L | 3.43 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 158 K | 37 BB ESPN – 154 IP | 10 W | 4.15 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 174 K | 55 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 182 1/3 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.015 WHIP | 225 K | 36 BB 2025 Actual – 161 IP | 8-15 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.280 WHIP | 188 K | 59 BB 2026 Prediction – 161 IP | 10-11 W/L | 4.25 ERA | 1.292 WHIP | 184 K | 58 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #5 – Kerry William Carpenter Kerry Carpenter has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2022. He is a career .268/.322/.507 hitter with a 128 wRC+, 5.3 percent home run rate, 3.9 percent walk rate, and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate. Last year, however, he had lower rate stats than in previous years. 2023 - 459 PA | .278/.340/.471 | 121 wRC+ 2024 – 296 PA | .284/.345/.587 | 158 wRC+ 2025 – 464 PA | .252/.291/.497 | 115 wRC+ He did hit a career-high 26 home runs in 2025, but his HR/FB rate was down to 17.3 percent.; it was at 20.9 percent in 2024 and 18.5 percent in 2023. Over 45 percent of his balls in play were fly balls, also a career high. He may have been trying too much to hit home runs, which resulted in more fly balls, but also a lower batting average. Another area of concern for Carpenter in 2025, was his walk rate. He only walked 18 times last year, down from 22 walks in 2024 in 168 fewer plate appearances. He did improve on his strikeout rate, though. 2023 – 7.0% BB% | 25.1% K% 2024 – 7.4% BB% | 25.3% K% 2025 – 3.9% BB% | 22.8% K% Carpenter also seemed to have a harder time hitting the off-speed pitch in 2025. 2023 – 101 AB | .267 AVG | .455 SLG | 5 HR 2024 – 58 AB | .293 AVG | .672 SLG | 6 HR 2025 – 99 AB | .242 AVG | .404 SLG | 4 HR Finally, Carpenter has always hit better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. Here are his splits for 2025: Vs. RHP – 373 AB | .257/.300/.512 Vs. LHP – 60 AB | .217/.238/.400 Manager A.J. Hinch likes playing matchups and sitting Carpenter down against left-handed pitching gives a great opportunity to get someone else playing time, like Jahmai Jones, who hit .288/.393/.577 vs. lefties in 2025 in 122 plate appearances. Carpenter did get three hits in the playoffs against left-handed pitching, including a clutch home run against Gabe Speier that gave the Tigers a 2-1 lead in Game 5 of the ALDS against Seattle. However, that’s a small sample and who knows if Hinch will change his game plan in 2026 to include Carpenter getting more at bats against left-handed pitching. For me, the biggest key for Carpenter is the walk rate. He has shown to have a walk rate of around 7 percent, which is slightly below league average. If he can get it back up, I think the batting average will also improve. He may lose a bit of home run power, but his overall stats will be better. He’s still under 30, so he could potentially have his best season yet. As far as playing time goes, I personally think Hinch will continue to platoon Carpenter and sit him against left-handed pitching, even though I think he deserves to see what he can do given 500+ plate appearances. If he does get that many, his overall stats may suffer, but we may get a moment similar to that Game 5 against Seattle. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 449 AB | .258/.314/.481 | 24 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K Steamer – 385 AB | .253/.310/.472 | 20 HR | 60 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 100 K ZiPS DC – 450 AB | .262/.318/.491 | 25 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K ATC – 438 AB | .253/.308/.474 | 24 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 114 K THE BAT X – 435 AB | .250/.309/.474 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K OOPSY – 449 AB | .257/.312/.469 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K RotoChamp – 440 AB | .255/.317/.470 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 114 K CBS Sports – 467AB | .268/.323/.518 | 28 HR | 73 RBI | 3 SB | 33 BB | 125 K ESPN – 487 AB | .251/.300/.474 | 26 HR | 72 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 454 AB | .262/.325/.526 | 28 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 125 K 2025 Actual – 433 AB | .252/.291/.497 | 26 HR | 62 RBI | 1 SB | 18 BB | 106 K 2026 Prediction – 433 AB | .270/.328/.513 | 26 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 112 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #4 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson In 2023, Spencer Torkelson seemed to break out hitting .233/.313/.446 with 31 home runs, 94 RBI with an above average 9.8 percent walk rate. However, in 2024, he struggled by hitting .201/.266/.300 with just four home runs in 230 plate appearances before getting sent down to AAA. After getting called up, he finished 2024 strong, hitting .248/.338/.444, and six home runs in his final 151 plate appearances. However, he wasn’t guaranteed a spot for the 2025 roster as Colt Keith was named the new starting first baseman before the season began. Torkelson did hit his way into the lineup, eventually reclaiming first base while hitting .240/.333/.456, 31 home runs and 78 RBI in 649 plate appearances last year. Torkelson’s power did start to dwindle as the season wore on, though. He hit 21 of his home runs in the first half of the season, showing significantly more power than in the second half of the season. First Half – 383 PA | .234/.337/.489 | 5.5% HR% | 11.5% BB% | 24.0% K% Second Half – 266 PA | .248/.327/.412 | 3.8% HR% | 10.5% BB% | 28.9% K% However, his batting average did improve in the second half. Maybe he was sacrificing power for a higher average? Or maybe it was just luck? According to Baseball Savant, his expected batting average was only .226 last year compared to .240 that he actually hit. And just like Riley Greene, the strikeouts are a major concern, and he struck out almost 30% of the time in the second half. Torkelson shows a lot of signs of a typical power hitter, including a flyball rate of over 50 percent. For both 2023 and 2025, he had a HR/FB rate of 15.0 percent. He also pulled the ball almost 50 percent of the time last year and 21 of his home runs were hit to left field. Torkelson is entering his age 27 season, right about the time players enter their prime. Unfortunately, I don’t really see much improvement from him this year. I think he is who he is – someone with a lot of power, low batting average, a high walk rate, but also a high strikeout rate. If he can duplicate his 118 wRC+ again, that’s a major plus to the lineup, even if his defensive stats are way below average. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 562 AB | .235/.324/.445 | 29 HR | 89 RBI | 2 SB | 69 BB | 167 K Steamer – 501 AB | .228/.320/.425 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB | 63 BB | 151 K ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .242/.329/.465 | 31 HR | 96 RBI | 2 SB | 68 BB | 165 K ATC – 538 AB | .232/.319/.435 | 27 HR | 79 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 64 K THE BAT X – 539 AB | .229/.316/.428 | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 158 K OOPSY – 562 AB | .237/.327/.429 | 26 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 70 BB | 162 K RotoChamp – 544 AB | .235/.324/.439 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 2 SB | 66 BB | 161 K CBS Sports – 489 AB | .247/.338/.460 | 25 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 60 BB | 149 K ESPN – 588 AB | .243/.331/.461 | 32 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 171 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 563 AB | .240/.333/.456 | 31 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 169 K 2026 Prediction – 563 AB | .227/.323/.437 | 29 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 75 BB | 172 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #3 – Framber Valdez After a pretty calm off-season, the Tigers surprised most everyone by signing the best free agent available at the time by agreeing to terms with Framber Valdez at three years and $115 million. Valdez will reunite with manager A.J. Hinch and fellow pitcher Justin Verlander in 2026. Framber Valdez has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since becoming a permanent fixture in Houston’s rotation in 2020. Since 2020, Valdez is fifth in innings pitched (973), tied with Max Fried with the most wins (73), and is sixth in fWAR (20.3). Also, since 2020, he has an ERA of 3.32, an FIP of 3.36, a 23.8 percent strikeout rate, and an 8.0 percent walk rate. He has placed top 10 in Cy Young voting three times and won a World Series with Verlander in Houston in 2022. He has been consistent and durable throughout his career and combined with Tarik Skubal, should make one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball. Valdez’s ERA was slightly higher in 2025 than it has been in previous years. However, his FIP has been consistent, so it may have just been a case of bad luck. 2022 – 201 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.06 FIP 2023 – 198 IP | 3.45 ERA | 3.50 FIP 2024 – 176 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 3.25 FIP 2025 – 192 IP | 3.66 ERA | 3.37 FIP Valdez throws mostly a sinker, curveball and changeup. His sinker is his best pitch, and he throws it about 45 percent of the time. According to Statcast, his curveball went from an above average pitch (12.9 runs above average in 2024) to just an average pitch (0.2 runs below average in 2025). However, batters still only batted .193 against this pitch according to Baseball Savant (with a .298 slugging against). His expected batting average against this pitch was .163 (and an expected .240 slugging against), so again, there might be some bad luck here. In 2024, batters hit .121 against his curveball (with a .187 slugging against). Valdez’s strikeout rate has been very consistent throughout his career, around 23-24 percent. His walk rate was a bit high in 2025, 8.5 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in 2024 and 7.1 percent in 2023. He is one of the best at preventing home runs (0.7 HR/9 in 2025), however, it should be noted that he had a league leading 12 wild pitches last season. There are two split stats that are notable. One is his home/away and the other is home/road. He was much better at home last year (not surprising as most pitchers are) and he was much better in the first half of the season (again, most pitchers are due to fatigue). Home – 94 1/3 IP | 2.58 ERA | 9.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 Away – 97 2/3 IP | 4.70 ERA | 7.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 First Half – 121 IP | 2.75 ERA | 9.3 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 Second Half – 71 IP | 5.20 ERA | 7.9 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 Valdez is entering his age 32 season, so he’s likely at the end of his prime years. I’m anticipating his ERA to go back down, although it may not be under 3.00 again. As long as he can improve his curveball and walk rate, he should get back to his career norms. And who knows how the ABS Challenge System is going to impact his numbers this year. I’m also confident that pitching coach Chris Fetter will keep him on track. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 195 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 180 K | 65 BB Steamer – 190 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 62 BB ZiPS DC – 200 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 185 K | 67 BB ATC – 187 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.49 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 174 K | 61 BB THE BAT X – 187 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.33 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 170 K | 60 BB OOPSY – 194 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.52 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 181 K | 65 BB RotoChamp – 186 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.48 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB CBS Sports – 185 IP | 14-10 W/ L | 3.89 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 172 K | 57 BB ESPN – 198 IP | 15 W | 3.50 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 189 K | 70 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – N/A 2025 Actual – 192 IP | 13-11 W/L | 3.66 ERA | 1.245 WHIP | 187 K | 68 BB 2026 Prediction – 196 1/3 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.161 WHIP | 192 K | 66 BB

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene Riley Greene had what many would consider a career year in 2025. He had career highs in home runs (36), runs batted in (111), and slugging percentage (.493) while getting his second All-Star appearance (first time starting) and winning his first Silver Slugger Award. However, he also led the league in strikeouts (201). There were also several stats that were not as good as they were in 2024. 2024: .827 OPS | 134 wRC+ | 3.9 fWAR 2025: .806 OPS | 121 wRC+ | 2.9 fWAR Greene did play in more games (157, a career high) and had a significantly better first half of the season as fatigue may have been a factor as the season went on. He only batted .195/.250/.368 the last month of the season. First Half: 397 PA | .284/.335/.544 | 6.0% HR% | 31.5% K% Second Half: 258 PA | .218/.279/.415 | 4.7% HR% | 29.5% K% Strikeouts are a major concern for Greene as he surpassed 30 percent strikeout rate for the first time in his career last year (30.7 percent). Greene has stated that he is going to change his mindset for 2026 as he felt like he was swinging at everything trying to hit a home run. And the stats back this up. His overall swing rate went over 50 percent for the first time last year (52.6 percent) and he chased 32.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone (24.0 percent in 2024). As a result, his walk rate fell to 7.0 percent in 2025 compared to a career high 11.0 percent in 2024. Riley Greene is entering his fifth season with the Tigers in 2026, so it’s easy to forget that he is only entering his age-25 season. His best season likely hasn’t even happened yet. The fact that he sees a flaw in his game and is willing to adjust it shows maturity for someone his age. His home run rate may suffer, but his overall stats should improve if he can get back to the plate discipline that he showed in 2024. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 584 AB | .264/.333/.477 | 29 HR | 97 RBI | 3 SB | 58 BB | 176 K Steamer – 521 AB | .260/.331/.467 | 25 HR | 82 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 158 K ZiPS DC – 586 AB | .268/.334/.487 | 30 HR | 103 RBI | 3 SB | 57 BB | 177 K ATC – 565 AB | .257/.327/.463 | 28 HR | 89 RBI | 4 SB | 56 BB | 176 K THE BAT X – 562 AB | .247/.321/.447 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 4 SB | 58 BB | 182 K OOPSY – 583 AB | .270/.339/.486 | 30 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | 59 BB | 175 K RotoChamp – 568 AB | .261/.330/.468 | 28 HR | 90 RBI | 4 SB | 57 BB | 175 K CBS Sports – 548 AB | .270/.335/.505 | 31 HR | 95 RBI | 3 SB | 50 BB | 176 K ESPN – 588 AB | .255/.318/.469 | 30 HR | 93 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 189 K My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K 2025 Actual – 600 AB | .258/.313/.493 | 36 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | 46 BB | 201 K 2026 Prediction – 591 AB | .272/.337/.508 | 33 HR | 102 RBI | 2 SB | 56 BB | 174 K

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #1 – Tarik Daniel Skubal For the second year in a row, Tarik Skubal was the best pitcher in the American League and won his second Cy Young Award. Since 2023, Skubal has had the highest fWAR, 15.9, despite only pitching a half a season in 2023. He’s also second in ERA during that time frame, 2.39, only behind Paul Skenes’ 1.96. Also, during the last three seasons, Skubal has 38 wins, a K/9 of 10.99, a BB/9 of 1.58, and a HR/9 of 0.71. The Tigers haven’t seen this kind of consistency and dominance since Justin Verlander in his prime (more on him later). Skubal has five pitches and just like in 2024, he threw his curveball exclusively against right-handed batters in 2025. One interesting stat is that he threw his changeup more often than any other pitch last year, according to Baseball Savant. This is unusual because normally the fastball is the pitch most often thrown for a pitcher (like it was for Skubal in 2023 and 2024). Changeup: 31.4% 4-seam Fastball: 29.3% Sinker: 23.9% Slider: 12.5% Curveball: 2.8% According to Statcast, Skubal’s changeup value is 26.8, not only making it the best changeup in all of baseball but making it one of the best single pitches in all of baseball; only Bran Woo’s fastball (26.1 pitch value) came close to Skubal’s changeup value. Opponents batted .154 against Skubal’s changeup and 110 of his strikeouts ended with the changeup, so it makes sense that he would throw it more often. One notable trend over the last few seasons is his groundball rate: 2023: 51.6% GB% 2024: 45.7% GB% 2025: 41.0% GB% Normally, I would be concerned over the drop of this rate as I love high ground ball rates as they do the least amount of damage. However, it hasn’t affected Skubal at all. His ERA (2.39 in 2024 and 2.21 in 2025) and FIP (2.49 in 2024 and 2.45 in 2025) remain low. Entering his age 29 season, he is still in his prime years, so keep doing what you’re doing. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 200 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 245 K | 40 BB Steamer – 200 IP | 14-9 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 243 K | 44 BB ZiPS DC – 199 IP | 14-5 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.95 WHIP | 244 K | 37 BB ATC – 188 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.72 ERA | 0.96 WHIP | 228 K | 38 BB THE BAT X – 188 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.58 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 233 K | 37 BB OOPSY – 205 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.55 ERA | 0.99 WHIP | 252 K | 45 BB RotoChamp – 192 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB CBS Sports – 189 IP | 13-6 W/ L | 2.81 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 226 K | 44 BB ESPN – 201 IP | 17 W | 2.73 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 253 K | 38 BB My Prediction: 2025 Prediction – 198 2/3 IP | 17-6 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.921 WHIP | 244 K | 35 BB 2025 Actual – 195 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.21 ERA | 0.891 WHIP | 241 K | 33 BB 2026 Prediction – 195 1/3 IP | 19-4 W/L | 2.30 ERA | 0.875 WHIP | 248 K | 32 BB

I asked AI to compare my preseason predictions to what the actual player stats are, and this is what it said. I still plan to do a recap post, butt this is probably better than I could ever come up with. Got it — let’s turn those preseason expectations into a Projection Accuracy Scorecard so you can see, at a glance, which calls were spot‑on and which ones missed the mark. Here’s how I’ll score it: • 5 = Nailed it (projection and reality match almost exactly) • 4 = Close (small variance, same general outcome) • 3 = Mixed (some elements right, some wrong) • 2 = Off (projection missed key outcomes) • 1 = Way Off (projection and reality were very different) 🎯 2025 Tigers Projection Accuracy Player Projection Accuracy Score Notes Tarik Skubal 5 Projected as Cy Young‑level ace — delivered elite ERA, WHIP, K’s exactly as forecast. Jack Flaherty 2 Expected solid rebound; instead had high ERA and HR issues. Reese Olson 4 ERA and style matched projection, but injuries cut innings. Casey Mize 4 Slightly higher ERA than projected, but healthy and productive. Alex Cobb 1 Projection assumed innings; injury erased season. Jackson Jobe 3 Projection nailed flashes of talent and control issues, but ERA/WHIP slightly better than feared. Riley Greene 5 Power breakout exactly as predicted, even slightly better. Kerry Carpenter 5 Platoon usage and power output matched projection perfectly. Colt Keith 3 Rookie streakiness as forecast, but power/contact slightly below hopes. Gleyber Torres 4 OBP boost and moderate power as projected; slight HR dip. Parker Meadows 1 Projection assumed healthy, productive season; injuries and low AVG derailed it. Matt Vierling 1 Expected modest power uptick; instead had major drop‑off. Javier Báez 3 Projection was very bearish; he was better than feared but still below prime. Jake Rogers 4 Defense‑first, low AVG, occasional pop — exactly as expected. Trey Sweeney 2 Projection hoped for adjustment period with flashes; instead struggled heavily. 📌 Summary Stats • Average Score: 3.2 / 5 → Overall, the projections were moderately accurate. • Most Accurate Calls: Skubal, Greene, Carpenter. • Biggest Misses: Cobb (injury), Meadows, Vierling. • Projection Bias: Slight optimism on health and rookie adjustments; otherwise, the tone matched reality for established stars.

The Colorado Rockies have played exactly 1/3 of their games and have 9 wins. That means they are on pace for 9 * 3 = 27 wins. The Tigers are pace to win 103 games.

The 2025 Colorado Rockies have the worst record after 50 games to start the season in the modern era at 8-42. The only team to have a worst record after 50 games in the history of baseball are the 1895 Louisville Colonels at 7-43. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who have the overall worst record in baseball history (20-134) were 9-41 to start the season.

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #15 – Jackson William Jobe Usually I only do 14 predictions, 5 starting pitchers and the 9 everyday hitters. However, I decided to do a bonus one this year since the Tigers have 6 starting pitchers this year that will likely contribute a significant amount of innings due to at least one injury (same thing could be said about the lineup with the injuries, and the way A.J. Hinch plays matchups, the line is a bit more blurred on who is a “starter” and who is a bench player). If Alex Cobb were healthy, it is likely that Jackson Jobe would start the year at AAA, but he has made the opening day roster and depending on how he does, might just stay in Detroit all year. It will be interesting how Cobb will fit in the roster if everyone stays healthy and no one is struggling. Would they send down Jobe if he has an ERA of under 3.00 with a lot of strikeouts and a low WHIP? Jackson Jobe pitched two innings in September, allowing zero runs, one hit, one walk, and striking out two. Due to injuries, Jobe was able to be on the post-season roster, and pitched another 1 2/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing three earned runs, five hits, no walks, and no strikeouts. Of course, this is a very small sample, but at least it gave him a taste of the Major Leagues as he was expected to get called up to the MLB at some point in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, Jobe threw a 4-seamer, cutter, changeup, and sweeper (slider?) in his brief time with the Tigers. Reports say he has also added a sinker. Here are the scouting grades according to MLB.com (on a scale of 20-80): Fastball - 70 Slider – 70 Changeup – 60 Cutter – 60 Control – 55 Overall – 60 Control is Jackson’s Jobe’s biggest issue as his walk rate was pretty high in the minor leagues in 2024. 2022 – 77 1/3 IP | 3.84 ERA | 24.3 K% | 9.0 BB% | 18.4% HR/FB% 2023 – 64 IP | 2.81 ERA | 32.6% K% | 2.3% BB% | 16.4% HR/FB% 2024 – 91 2/3 IP | 2.36 ERA | 25.6% K% | 12.0% BB% | 4.1% HR/FB% Jobe’s fastball typically sits around 95-97 MPH, but can get it up to 100 MPH at times (reminds me of Justin Verlander), so he should be able to have a high strikeout rate. Jobe has never pitched over 100 innings in his professional career, so it will be interesting to see how he gets used as the season progresses. I will not be surprised if they move him to the bullpen at some point to limit his innings, especially if they are in position to make the playoffs again and want to rest him so he can be ready to make a playoff start. Just like with Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney and every other rookie, it’s hard to predict how Jobe will do with an extended stint in the Major Leagues. Hitters will adjust as scouting reports make their way through the league and then Jobe will have to adjust. Not to mention if his control is going to be a big problem. Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus all have Jobe as a top five prospect heading into the 2025 season and is a favorite of winning the Rookie of the Year Award. Regardless of what happens, I am very excited to see him pitch this year. And with any of these predictions, rookie or veteran, no one knows exactly what will happen. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 112 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 87 K | 42 BB Steamer – 130 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.65 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 100 K | 49 BB ZiPS DC – 94 IP | 4-5 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 35 BB ATC – 106 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.46 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 87 K | 39 BB THE BAT – 106 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 90 K | 35 BB OOPSY – 112 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.23 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 98 K | 49 BB RotoChamp – 108 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 88 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 4.01 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 105 K | 42 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 12 1/3 IP | 1-1 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 8 K | 4 BB 2025 Prediction – 133 2/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.399 WHIP | 146 K | 70 BB This is the last prediction that I’m going to do this year, mainly because tomorrow is opening day. I could easily do a prediction on more hitters as it’s hard to tell who will end up playing the most this year due to injuries and production. Spencer Torkelson could be the everyday DH and hit 30 home runs again. Manuel Margot, who looks to be the opening day centerfielder, could start out hot and gain more playing time even when Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling are healthy. Jace Jung could still get the most innings at third base, even with starting the year at AAA. At the same time, Zach McKinstry or Andy Ibanez could also end up as the everyday third baseman. But I made my predictions, and I think at the end, this is what I think the lineup will look like: CF Parker Meadows 2B Gleyber Torres LF Riley Greene DH Kerry Carpenter 1B Colt Keith RF Matt Vierling 3B Javier Baez C Jake Rogers SS Trey Sweeney Not to mention any mid-season trades (hopefully the Tigers will be buyers this year instead of sellers). Well, I guess there’s nothing left to do but say: GO TIGERS!!!

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction - #14 – Trey Thomas Sweeney The Tigers acquired Trey Sweeney at last year’s trade deadline when they sold Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only did they make the playoffs anyway, but Flaherty resigned with the Tigers, essentially getting Sweeney for a rental. Sweeney was called up in mid-August and became the regular shortstop for the remainder of the season when Javier Baez was out due to injury. He hit .218/.269/.373 with four home runs and an 81 wRC+ in 119 plate appearances. He looks to start 2025 as the starting shortstop again with Baez getting plenty of playing time at third base to start the season. Will Sweeney be able to stay at the Major League club, or will he struggle and get sent down to AAA? Trey Sweeney’s stint in Toledo was brief, but man did he hit. LAD AAA – 440 PA | .254/.334/.427 | 13 HR | 88 wRC+ DET AAA – 47 PA | .381/.447/.667 | 2 HR | 187 wRC+ DET MLB – 119 PA | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 81 wRC+ Of course, small sample sizes apply, but it may show that Sweeney has nothing left to prove in AAA and it’s sink or swim time at the Major League level. Many experts are predicting that the 25-year old will struggle this year, which is typical for a rookie. One area I would like to see Sweeney improve on is his walk rate. He has shown to have a good walk rate in the minor leagues, but it was less than impressive at the Major League level. 2021 – 138 PA | 15.9% BB% | 22.5% K% | 25.0% HR/FB% 2022 – 508 PA | 13.0% BB% | 23.2% K% | 13.7% HR/FB% 2023 – 472 PA | 13.8% BB% | 19.1% K% | 9.3% HR/FB% 2024 (MiLB) – 487 PA | 10.1% BB% | 26.7% K% | 18.1% HR/FB% 2024 (MLB) – 119 PA | 5.9% BB% | 26.9% K% | 12.5% HR/FB% Sweeney also showed some speed in the minor leagues. In 2022, he stole 31 bases; in 2023 he stole 20 bases; and in 2024 he stole 20 bases (plus 2 more with the Tigers at the ML level). If he can get his walk rate to 10 percent or above, combined with around 20 stolen bases, he could be a good candidate to hit at the top of the order along with Parker Meadows in the coming years. Power numbers usually come later, and Trey Sweeney didn’t even show bad power numbers in his Major League time last year. He had a .155 ISO with a 7.6 percent extra base hit rate. He had a .183 ISO and a 9.4 percent extra base hit rate in AAA last year (LAD and DET combined). These numbers are right around what Parker Meadows showed last year with the Tigers after spending some time in AAA. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that Sweeney can get it that high within the next few years. It’s always hard to predict what a rookie will do. Trey Sweeney has the Major League experience and has put up better than decent numbers in the minor leagues. But at the same time, it is a big leap from AAA to MLB and some hitters take longer to adjust. It’s best to be optimistic, but cautious. I think his season will be similar to Colt Keith’s last year, just a lot of ups and downs as he is adjusting but finishing around an average wRC+. Hopefully there won’t be too many downs that they have to send him to AAA again, but even so, it has helped other players before. I’m excited to see what Sweeney will do this year, regardless. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 341 AB | .224/.294/.363 | 9 HR | 39 RBI | 9 SB | 31 BB | 102 K Steamer – 280 AB | .226/.296/.365 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 82 K ZiPS DC – 342 AB | .222/.292/.361 | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 10 SB | 31 BB | 104 K ATC – 309 AB | .217/.284/.354 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 92 K THE BAT X – 310 AB | .214/.279/.352 | 8 HR | 33 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 95 K OOPSY – 342 AB | .222/.289/.369 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 10 SB | 30 BB | 105 K RotoChamp – 320 AB | .219/.292/.359 | 9 HR | 8 SB | 28 BB | 97 K CBS Sports – 371 AB | .243/.297/.407 | 13 HR | 12 SB | 27 BB | 98 K ESPN – 421 AB | .219/.305/.361 | 12 HR | 16 SB | 49 BB | 119 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 110 AB | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 17 RBI | 2 SB | 7 BB | 32 K 2025 Prediction – 408 AB | .230/.301/.400 | 15 HR | 43 RBI | 15 SB | 39 BB | 123 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #13 – Alexander Miller Cobb The Tigers have just finalized the last two rotation spots; Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe will join Tark Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson in the starting rotation to start the 2025 season. So, where does this leave Alex Cobb? The Tigers signed Cobb to a 1-year, $15 million contract in the offseason to help bolster their starting rotation, which lacked depth at the end of the 2024 season. However, Cobb only made three starts in 2024 and will start the season on the injured list. I would be surprised, though, if the Tigers spent $15 million on someone who would just end up in the bullpen. Even Kenta Maeda went a half a season in the rotation before being demoted to the bullpen, and Cobb has shown much better stats recently. Since 2021, Alex Cobb has pitched 410 2/3 innings with a 3.75 ERA, 390 strikeouts, 116 walks with a 111 ERA+ and a 3.29 FIP. He has had an ERA of under 4.00 in each of the last four seasons, has struck out more than nine per nine innings twice, and made one All-Star appearance. In his last start of the 2024 season, he took a perfect game into the 7th inning before allowing a base hit. Alex Cobb primarily throws a sinker, split finger, and knuckle curve with a very occasional four-seamer (which might just be a misclassified sinker). He started throwing a slider in 2023 but abandoned it in his short 2024 season. It’ll be interesting to see if he goes back to it in 2025. He only threw his slider 5.1 percent of the time in 2023 and hitters hit .333 against it in 24 plate appearances. He primarily uses his sinker/split finger combo to get hitters out on ground balls. In 2023, Alex Cobb induced 57.6 percent ground balls, second most in baseball (min. 150 innings) with only his teammate, Logan Webb, having a higher rate (62.1 percent). Cobb has a career ground ball rate of 54.6 percent and it has never been below 46 percent in any of his 13 years in the Majors. Since he made his Major League debut in 2011, only Dallas Keuchel (57.6 percent), Marcus Stroman (55.9 percent), and Trevor Cahill (54.8 percent) have had a higher ground ball rate than Alex Cobb (min. 1000 innings). If you’ve read any of my other predictions for pitchers, you’ll know I love pitchers with high ground ball rates as it minimizes the damage they can do. Add a high strikeout rate and it’s easy to see why he has had an ERA below 4.00 his last four years. 2021 – 93 1/3 IP | 24.9% K% | 8.4% BB% | 8.2% HR/FB% 2022 – 149 2/3 IP | 23.9% K% | 6.8% BB% | 10.2% HR/FB% 2023 – 151 1/3 IP | 20.3% K% | 5.7% BB% | 18.3% HR/FB% The walk rate is trending in the right direction, while the home runs are trending in the opposite direction. If he can put together a walk rate as low as 6 percent with a low home run rate and maintain a 20 percent strikeout rate, he could have another good year in 2025. At least Comerica Park is a stadium that can limit home runs. The biggest problem is his health. His highest number of innings he has every pitched in a year was 179 1/3 in 2017. He has only pitched over 100 innings twice since 2019. Another drawback is his age; he’ll be entering his age-37 season in 2025. This is an age where most pitchers are in their decline. He did, however, make his first and only All-Star game at the age of 35, so maybe the normal aging curve doesn’t apply here, especially since he hasn’t accumulated many innings in his career. Hopefully, he can get healthy and continue to generate ground balls and add depth to the Tigers starting rotation. There’s also the Chris Fetter factor, who has improved most pitchers after coming to Detroit (just don’t ask Kenta Meada). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 95 IP | 5-6 W/L | 3.82 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB Steamer – 100 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 83 K | 28 BB ZiPS DC – 90 IP | 4-5 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 30 BB ATC – 83 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.84 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 68 K | 23 BB THE BAT – 83 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.26 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 63 K | 23 BB OOPSY – 94 IP | 7-6 W/L | 3.81 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 83 K | 29 BB RotoChamp – 87 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.93 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 71 K | 26 BB CBS Sports – 113 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 92 K | 25 BB ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 3.93 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 91 K | 31 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 16 1/3 IP | 2-1 W/L | 2.76 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 10 K | 3 BB 2025 Prediction – 101 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.317 WHIP | 85 K | 27 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #12 – Matthew Gregory Vierling Matt Vierling has played all over the field since he has been called up by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021. He has at least one game played at every position except pitcher, catcher, and shortstop. For the Tigers, he has mostly played rightfield and third base, which coincidently are two positions that are wide open at the moment. He has also had 500+ plate appearances with the Tigers over the last two seasons, so he has basically been an everyday player. Unfortunately, Vierling is currently on the injured list and will not be ready by opening day. But once he’s healthy, he’ll likely resume the role of an everyday super utility player. Matt Vierling had career highs in home runs (16), RBI (57), wRC+ (108) and WAR (2.6 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR) last year. He was one of the most reliable hitters on the Tigers last year after Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. His .166 ISO and 8.6 percent extra base rate were also career highs for the 27-year old, who is just entering his prime years. He had a .309 xWOBA compared to his actual wOBA of .317, suggesting that luck wasn’t much of a factor. Barring any setbacks due to injury, it looks like he should be able to build on these numbers in 2025. Looking at some of his batted ball data over the last two seasons: 2023 – 48.5% GB% | 30.8% FB% | 20.7% LD% | 33.9% Pull% | 33.3% Cent% | 32.8% Oppo% 2024 – 42.1% GB% | 37.8% FB% | 20.1% LD% | 38.6% Pull% | 35.8% Cent% | 25.6% Oppo% The increase in fly ball rate explains the increase in home runs. While it would be nice to see him go the opposite way more often to maybe increase his batting average, he only hit one home run the opposite way. When Vierling pulled the ball, he hit .390 with a .779 slugging percentage in 2024, so having him continue to pull the ball might be the better option. According to Baseball Savant, his squared-up rate (81 percentile), chase percentage (89 percentile) and whiff rate (78 percentile) were all above average. Despite the good chase percentage and whiff rate, his strikeout rate was only slightly below league average at 21.3 percent and very similar to the 21.1 percent in 2023. His walk rate decreased from 8.3 percent in 2023 to 7.2 percent in 2024, although most people will take the trade of walks for more power. Just like with Parker Meadows, it’s hard to predict just how his injury will affect his season and playing time. He’s right at the stage of his career where he should have the best numbers of his career, but at the same time he’ll never be the kind of hitter that Riley Greene is (or will be). I think it’s safe to say that he will be a slightly above-average hitter once again in 2025 when he is fully healthy, which anyone would take from a player who can play multiple positions. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 424 AB | .254/.317/.395 | 11 HR | 46 RBI | 6 SB | 37 BB | 100 K Steamer – 376 AB | .253/.317/.396 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 33 BB | 89 K ZiPS DC – 425 AB | .254/.317/.394 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 100 K ATC – 413 AB | .253/.315/.399 | 11 HR | 45 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 96 K THE BAT X – 413 AB | .253/.314/.397 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 34 BB | 92 K OOPSY – 425 AB | .251/.314/.386 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 7 SB | 37 BB | 96 K RotoChamp – 417 AB | .254/.315/.396 | 11 HR | 7 SB | 36 BB | 96 K CBS Sports – 334 AB | .266/.327/.428 | 10 HR | 4 SB | 28 BB | 82 K ESPN – 457 AB | .260/.320/.411 | 12 HR | 8 SB | 39 BB | 104 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 518 AB | .257/.312/.423 | 16 HR | 57 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 121 K 2025 Prediction – 422 AB | .258/.318/.427 | 13 HR | 47 RBI | 6 SB | 36 BB | 95 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #11 – Ednel Javier Baez Javier Baez has been with Detroit since 2022, and every year has been worse than the previous, 89 wRC+ in 2022; 63 wRC+ in 2023; and 43 wRC+ in 2024. Baez missed half a season worth of games last year due to hip injury that required season ending surgery. The injury could explain some of his struggles in 2024 and it’ll be nice to see if he can bounce back some when he’s fully healthy, but the 6/year, $140 million contract looks to be one of the worst in baseball history. With three years remaining and $25 million owed this year, the Tigers are not going to just cut him, so he’ll get plenty of playing time in 2025, especially now that he is playing some games at third base now that they have sent Jace Jung to the minor leagues (there’s also talk about playing him some in centerfield). Entering his age 32 season, Javier Baez is far removed from his prime years. From 2017-2021, Baez hit .271/.312/.503 with an average of 25 home runs a year. Since joining the Tigers in 2022, Baez has hit .221/.262/.347 with a 70 wRC+. The 70 wRC+ since 2022 is the fourth worst in baseball (min. 1000 PA) behind Myles Straw (67 wRC+). Nicky Lopez (68 wRC+), and Tim Anderson (69 wRC+). There are plenty of stats that show Baez’ decline. He usually always struggled with off-speed pitches (except for 2019), but during his prime he was able to hit the fastball as well as the curveball. Fastball: 2017 – 258 PA | .309 BA | .523 SLG 2018 – 305 PA | .308 BA | .566 SLG 2019 – 275 PA | .267 BA | .516 SLG 2020 – 106 PA | .253 BA | .394 SLG 2021 – 264 PA | .267 BA | .487 SLG ----------------------------------------------- 2022 – 235 PA | .271 BA | .459 SLG 2023 – 246 PA | .206 BA | .284 SLG 2024 – 135 PA | .200 BA | .292 SLG Breaking: 2017 – 181 PA | .236 BA | .466 SLG 2018 – 263 PA | .285 BA | .570 SLG 2019 – 219 PA | .296 BA | .556 SLG 2020 – 107 PA | .158 BA | .297 SLG 2021 – 210 PA | .290 BA | .545 SLG ----------------------------------------------- 2022 – 272 PA | .213 BA | .369 SLG 2023 – 229 PA | .231 BA | .348 SLG 2024 – 125 PA | .171 BA | .308 SLG 2020 was an odd year, shortened because of Covid and probably should be taken out for analysis. This is also a long-winded way of saying that Baez has lost his power, although his home run rate increased from 1.7 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2024 and his extra base hit percentage increased from 5.7 percent in 2023 to 6.2 percent in 2024. Still far away from his peak numbers of 5.7 percent home run rate and 12.9 percent extra base hit percentage. Maybe injuries were a major factor the last few years and now that Baez has had surgery, he will produce better in 2025. Although, age is not on his side and it’s not like he is hitting well in Spring Training. There is still the possibility that he won’t even get 400 plate appearances. I fully expect another disappointing season, although I have been surprised before. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 339 AB | .234/.278/.373 | 10 HR | 41 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 88 K Steamer – 264 AB | .237/.280/.381 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 6 SB | 13 BB | 66 K ZiPS DC – 340 AB | .231/.275/.365 | 9 HR | 42 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 92 K ATC – 310 AB | .227/.271/.359 | 8 HR | 36 RBI | 7 SB | 15 BB | 80 K THE BAT X – 307 AB | .232/.276/.369 | 9 HR | 35 RBI | 7 SB | 15 BB | 80 K OOPSY – 339 AB | .234/.280/.388 | 11 HR | 39 RBI | 9 SB | 18 BB | 91 K RotoChamp – 319 AB | .229/.275/.364 | 9 HR | 7 SB | 16 BB | 83 K CBS Sports – 318 AB | .217/.264/.343 | 8 HR | 9 SB | 16 BB | 83 K ESPN – 172 AB | .221/.262/.343 | 4 HR | 4 SB | 8 BB | 43 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 527 AB | .235/.282/.372 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 12 SB | 26 BB | 136 K 2024 Actual – 272 AB | .184/.221/.294 | 6 HR | 37 RBI | 8 SB | 12 BB | 69 K 2025 Prediction – 394 AB | .216/.255/.330 | 9 HR | 49 RBI | 8 SB | 18 BB | 102 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #10 – Casey Arthur Mize One of the biggest problems for Casey Mize is his inability to stay healthy. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and missed two months in 2024 with a strained hamstring. Overall, Mize has only pitched 291 innings since his Major League debut in late 2020 with a 4.36 ERA, an 18.2 percent strikeout rate, a 6.8 percent walk rate, and a 4.60 FIP. Mize only has two seasons in which he has over 100 innings pitched, 2021 and 2024. And both show that luck was involved, but in complete opposite directions. 2021 – 150 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 4.71 FIP | .254 BABIP 2024 – 102 1/3 IP | 4.49 ERA | 3.95 FIP | .331 BABIP The biggest factor in the high FIP in 2021 was the home runs, 1.44 HR/9 vs. 0.97 HR/9 in 2024. While he was able to mitigate the home runs in 2024, the high BABIP resulted in a higher ERA. In 2021, his BABIP was one of the lowest in all of baseball and resulted in a lower ERA. Maybe everything can even out in 2025, now that he is fully healthy. One thing in common in both years are the high ground ball rates, 48.1 percent in 2021 and 49.0 percent in 2024. Just like with Reese Olson, having a high ground ball rate can limit the damage that opposing hitters can do. However, several more ground balls resulted in hits in 2024, .268 batting average on ground balls vs. .212 batting average on ground balls in 2024. Luck was likely a factor, but Mize also had a higher hard hit rate in 2024, 44.6 percent vs. 39.8 percent in 2021, which can result in more hits and explains the higher BABIP. According to Baseball Savant, Casey Mize throws a 4-seamer, slider, split finger, sinker, and knuckle curve. I think the sinker is the most interesting. In 2024, he changed his strategy and threw it exclusively against right-handed batters, but it was his most hittable pitch, with a .341 batting average against. However, no one hit a home run off of it in 46 plate appearances as opposed to in 2021, when he gave up eight home runs in 168 plate appearances with a .318 batting average against. It’ll be interesting to see what changes he makes in 2025 and if he’ll be more like Reese Olson and have more pitches be exclusive based on the handedness of the batter. For 2025, Casey Mize looks primed for a breakout year for the 28-year old. During Spring Training, his split finger looks a lot better, his fastball velocity has increased as usually seen from pitcher who have had Tommy John surgery, and he has give up zero runs in 11 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts (although ST stats should always be taken with a grain of salt). With Alex Cobb injured, there are currently two spots open for the rotation with four candidates, Mize, rookie Jackson Jobe, Kenta Maeda, and Keinder Montero. I think Mize has a spot locked up, but we’ll have to wait for them to officially announce it. Even if he doesn’t, I still think he’ll contribute significant enough innings as injuries are always a factor. I just hope Mize can stay healthy himself. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 118 IP | 6-6 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 94 K | 33 BB Steamer – 124 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.16 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 100 K | 35 BB ZiPS DC – 112 IP | 4-4 W/L | 4.33 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 88 K | 32 BB ATC – 125 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.28 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 99 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 125 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 93 K | 34 BB OOPSY – 116 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.15 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 96 K | 36 BB RotoChamp – 123 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 97 K | 35 BB CBS Sports – 135 IP | 3-8 W/L | 3.53 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 111 K | 31 BB ESPN – 111 IP | 6 W | 4.14 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 82 K | 35 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP | 5-9 W/L | 4.71 ERA | 1.357 WHIP | 89 K | 43 BB 2024 Actual – 102 1/3 IP | 2-6 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.47 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB 2025 Prediction – 125 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.241 WHIP | 102 K | 34 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #9 – Jacob Ray Rogers After missing the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, Jake Rogers showed plenty of power in 2023 with 21 home runs and a .224 ISO. However, he was not able to replicate that power in 2024, only hitting ten home runs with a weak batting line of .197/.255/.352, making my 2024 prediction look hilariously bad (but not as bad as Spencer Torkelson’s!). What happened to his power and can he regain it in 2025? 2021 – 127 PA | .257 ISO | 11.0% XBH% | 4.7% HR% | 18.8% HR/FB% 2023 – 365 PA | .224 ISO | 8.8% XBH% | 5.8% HR% | 23.3% HR/FB% 2024 – 337 PA | .155 ISO | 8.0% XBH% | 3.0% HR% | 11.0% HR/FB% While 2021 was a relatively small sample size, Rogers was able to sustain or improve on some of the power numbers in 2023. However, his power numbers have significantly gone down in 2024 for the not yet 30-year old. Part of the reason for this is his splits against left-handed pitchers. In 2023, Rogers hit .235/.296/.561 vs. southpaws in 108 plate appearances with an 8.3 percent home run rate. In 2024, Rogers only hit .169/.258/.241 vs. southpaws in 93 plate appearances with only a 1.1 percent home run rate. That’s a huge drop and not something a manager that loves to play the matchups like A.J. Hinch wants to see. Jake Rogers also wasn’t able to hit the fastball as well as he did in 2023. With plate appearances that ended in a fastball over the last two seasons: 2023 – 211 PA | .220/.243/.489 | 15 HR 2024 – 191 PA | .184/.214/.368 | 7 HR It’s also interesting to see that Rogers has been able to lower his strikeout rate every year and, at the same time, his walk rate has also decreased. 2019 – 128 PA | 10.2% BB% | 39.8% K% 2021 – 127 PA | 8.7% BB% | 36.2% K% 2023 – 365 PA | 7.7% BB% | 32.3% K% 2024 – 337 PA | 6.5% BB% | 29.4% K% While it’s nice to see his strikeout rate below 30 percent, I do hope his walk rate trend doesn’t continue. Maybe he is overaggressive, trying to put the ball in play more. But he should be more selective, be patient to draw more walks with the risk of looking at a called third strike. Lucky, the Tigers rely on Jake Rogers more for his defense than his offense. According to Baseball Savant, Rogers was elite in Fielding Run Value (95th percentile), Blocks Above Average (89th percentile), and Framing (91st percentile). Now that Rogers is entering his age-30 season, it’s unlikely that the power numbers will return and with 2023 looking like a fluke. He may be able to get his batting average potentially back to over .200, but he will probably only hit a dozen or so home runs. As long as the defense is there, that is just alright. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 348 AB | .212/.277/.380 | 14 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 116 K Steamer – 312 AB | .215/.280/.384 | 13 HR | 39 RBI | 3 SB | 26 BB | 101 K ZiPS DC – 348 AB | .209/.275/.376 | 13 HR | 46 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 120 K ATC – 308 AB | .208/.274/.376 | 12 HR | 39 RBI | 1 SB | 25 BB | 102 K THE BAT X – 306 AB | .208/.277/.366 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 2 SB | 26 BB | 104 K OOPSY – 348 AB | .215/.279/.382 | 14 HR | 42 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 115 K RotoChamp – 321 AB | .212/.284/.374 | 12 HR | 40 RBI | 2 SB | 27 BB | 107 K CBS Sports – 380 AB | .226/.291/.437 | 20 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 124 K ESPN – 376 AB | .213/.277/.402 | 17 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 338 AB | .213/.282/.417 | 19 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K 2023 Actual – 310 AB | .197/.255/.352 | 10 HR | 36 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 99 K 2024 Prediction – 316 AB | .203/.264/.367 | 12 HR | 41 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 109 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #8 – Parker Meadows After a brief stint with the Tigers in 2023 when he hit .232 with three home runs in 145 plate appearances, Parker Meadows made the Tigers team out of Spring Training in 2024. However, he struggled mightily, with a batting average below .100, and was sent back down to AAA in early May. Something must have clicked as he hit better than he ever did before. The Tigers brought him back up in early July and he continued to mash, adding a big boost to the offense, helping the Tigers into the playoffs. 3/28/2024 – 5/6/2024 – 85 PA | .096/.224/.219 | 2 HR | 12.9 % BB% | 37.6% K% AAA (2024) – 237 PA | .292/.388/.495 | 8 HR | 12.7% BB% | 19.0% K% 7/5/2024 – 9/29/2024 – 213 PA | .299/.344/.513 | 7 HR | 6.6% BB% | 20.7% K% Parker Meadow’s second half surge is an encouraging sign, but one has to wonder how much of it is sustainable for a full season. His BABIP was .354, which does suggest some good fortune. His overall xBA was only .229 and his xSLG was .382 while his actual batting average and slugging percentage were .244 and .433, respectfully. While I do think he has finally figured some things out, I wouldn’t expect a .300 batting average or a .500 slugging percentage in 2025. One thing Meadow’s was able to do in the first half with the Tigers last year was an above average walk rate, 12.9 percent. He was able to sustain that in AAA, but it was cut in half in the second half as he was also putting the ball in play more. Given a full season, I think he can once again have an above average walk rate north of 10 percent, especially if he is hitting first or second and actively trying to get on base. Parker Meadow’s biggest asset might just be his defense. Even in 82 games, he was able to have a 5 DRS and a 4.5 UZR/150. Given a full season, he should be in contention for a Gold Glove Award. Another big asset is his speed. He tied Riley Greene and Wenceel Perez with six triples in far less plate appearances. He was second on the team with nine stolen bases and stole another 19 in AAA. I could easily see him steal 20+ bases in a full season with the Tigers. Unfortunately, Meadows hasn’t even begun baseball activities this Spring yet due to an upper arm nerve issue and may not be ready on Opening Day. The injury factor is always hard to predict as you never know how many games to account for. He could miss a week or three months. A fully healthy Meadows entering his age-25 season after a promising second half of the season could have a 20/20 season with an above average OPS+. But what does Meadows look like after coming off an injury that may or may not bother him all season? Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 469 AB | .234/.307/.396 | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 18 SB | 47 BB | 121 K Steamer – 455 AB | .236/.311/.397 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 19 SB | 47 BB | 118 K ZiPS DC – 470 AB | .232/.302/.394 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 18 SB | 45 BB | 122 K ATC – 457 AB | .236/.308/.400 | 14 HR | 50 RBI | 19 SB | 45 BB | 120 K THE BAT X – 461 AB | .229/.296/.393 | 15 HR | 51 RBI | 16 SB | 42 BB | 124 K OOPSY – 473 AB | .231/.295/.385 | 13 HR | 49 RBI | 19 SB | 42 BB | 128 K RotoChamp – 462 AB | .232/.309/.392 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 18 SB | 44 BB | 122 K CBS Sports – 414 AB | .254/.320/.452 | 16 HR | 46 RBI | 16 SB | 39 BB | 112 K ESPN – 519 AB | .235/.316/.418 | 16 HR | 52 RBI | 21 SB | 60 BB | 132 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 480 AB | .244/.327/.400 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 21 SB | 56 BB | 139 K 2024 Actual – 270 AB | .244/.310/.433 | 9 HR | 28 RBI | 9 SB | 25 BB | 76 K 2025 Prediction – 455 AB | .248/.336/.453 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 116 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #7 – Gleyber David Torres After seven years with the New York Yankees, Gleyber Torres signed with the Detroit Tigers as a free agent on a one-year deal for the 2025 season. The Tigers were looking to upgrade their offense while also moving one of their young stars, Colt Keith, to a position that most people predicted he would eventually end up, first base. Torres had his breakout season in 2019, when he hit .278/.337/.535 with 38 home runs and a 128 OPS+. He has yet to replicate that success since, although he did hit 20+ home runs in two of the last three seasons with a 118 OPS+ in 2023. He only had a 101 OPS+ in 2024. Still under 30 years old, will Torres be able to get back his power while playing in a new ballpark? Gleyber Torres is only entering his age-28 season, so he should be in the middle of his prime years. However, he has been inconsistent throughout his career. He has appeared in at least 140 games over the last three seasons with these stats: 2022 – 572 PA | .328 wOBA | .319 xWOBA | 6.8% BB% | 22.6% K% | 13.1% HR/FB% 2023 – 672 PA | .346 wOBA | .362 xWOBA | 10.0% BB% | 14.6% K% | 12.6% HR/FB% 2024 – 665 PA | .313 wOBA | .307 xWOBA | 9.8% BB% | 20.5% K% | 8.1% HR/FB% 2023 was one of Torres’ better years with a 120 wRC+, but he fell to barely above average in 2024 with a 104 wRC+. He was able to maintain his walk rate to around 10 percent over the last two years, improving from 6.8 percent in 2022. His career strikeout rate is a tad above average at 20.3 percent, but he was able to lower it to 14.6 percent in 2023, only for it to go back to his career average in 2024. The biggest change has been in his home runs. He had a 6.3 percent home run rate in 2019, but that fell to below 2.0 percent over the next two years. He was able to increase it to 4.2 percent in 2022 and 3.7 percent in 2023, but it fell again to 2.3 percent in 2024. According to Baseball Savant, only nine of his home runs would have been home runs at Comerica Park last year. For 2025, it’s hard to say how Gleyber Torres will adjust to a new team, a new ballpark, and a new hitting coach. He is likely to bat at the top of the order where his .330 on-base percentage would have been third on the Tigers last year after Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter (after Mark Canha was traded). Torres was able to have double digits in stolen bases in 2021-23, so maybe he will be more aggressive on the base paths again. He also saw an average of 4.23 pitches per plate appearance, more than anyone on the Tigers last year. I don’t see him getting 20+home runs again, but having an above average on-base percentage, seeing a lot of pitches and putting the ball in play, as well as being a stolen base threat can still be a good asset to this lineup at the top of the order. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 584 AB | .259/.333/.403 | 18 HR | 68 RBI | 8 SB | 64 BB | 117 K Steamer – 585 AB | .258/.331/.403 | 18 HR | 73 RBI | 8 SB | 63 BB | 117 K ZiPS DC – 582 AB | .260/.335/.402 | 18 HR | 64 RBI | 8 SB | 66 BB | 117 K ATC – 557 AB | .256/.328/.396 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 7 SB | 59 BB | 114 K THE BAT X – 559 AB | .252/.322/.394 | 17 HR | 68 RBI | 9 SB | 56 BB | 115 K OOPSY – 584 AB | .263/.336/.404 | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 9 SB | 64 BB | 117 K RotoChamp – 566 AB | .256/.330/.398 | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 61 BB | 115 K CBS Sports – 486 AB | .272/.330/.407 | 12 HR | 51 RBI | 6 SB | 42 BB | 107 K ESPN – 557 AB | .262/.338/.400 | 16 HR | 64 RBI | 10 SB | 64 BB | 116 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – N/A 2024 Actual – 587 AB | .257/.330/.378 | 15 HR | 63 RBI | 4 SB | 65 BB | 136 K 2025 Prediction – 592 AB | .260/.335/.395 | 12 HR | 66 RBI | 15 SB | 67 BB | 134 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #6 – William Reese Olson Reese Olson became a surprise fixture in the starting rotation the last couple of years. In 2023, after sporting a 6.38 ERA in AAA, the Tigers called him up and he produced a 3.99 in 103 2/3 innings at the Big League level. Last year in 2024, Olson stayed with the Tigers all season long and lowered his ERA to 3.53 in 112 1/3 innings (he did miss some time due to a shoulder injury). Can he lower his ERA even further in 2025? According to Baseball Savant, Olson throws a slider, 4-seamer, changeup, sinker, and curveball. And there is definitely a pattern in how he attacks right-handed and left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, Olson uses a sinker while against left-handed hitters he uses the 4-seamer/curveball combination. Sinker – 371 pitches vs. RHB | 0 pitches vs. LHB 4-seamer – 39 pitches vs. RHB | 403 pitches vs. LHB Curveball – 18 pitches vs. RHB | 94 pitches vs. LHB His slider is his best pitch and he uses it about equally against both right-handed batters (249 pitches) and left-handed batters (266 pitches). Opponents only hit .143 against it in 112 plate appearances with a low .194 slugging percentage against. It’s also his most used pitch, throwing it 27.8 percent of the time. Overall, right-handed batters hit .220 against Olson with a .310 slugging against while left-handed batters hit .253 with a .380 slugging against. Olson improved in many of his stats in his second year in the Big Leagues: 2023 – 103 2/3 IP | 4.01 FIP | 24.4% K % | 7.8% BB% | .255 BABIP 2024 – 112 1/3 IP | 3.17 FIP | 21.7% K% | 7.1% BB% | .291 BABIP The .255 BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune, while .291 BABIP is right around league average. The lower walk rate is good to see and the lower strikeout rate is probably due to more scouting reports that hitters have against Olson. The biggest improvement is that he was able to generate 50.6 percent ground ball rate, which led to fewer home runs (13.5 percent HR/FB rate in 2023 to 6.9 percent HR/FB rate in 2024). I love to see a high ground ball rate with a pitcher as that significantly lowers the amount of damage that a hitter can do. As for 2025, Reese Olson is only entering his age 25 season. There can be several more adjustments that he can make that can make him an even better pitcher. If he can stay healthy all year, that would mean that he will also log in more innings than he has ever pitched before. So, I could see him faltering a bit at the end of the season due to fatigue (although the Tigers may limit his innings to keep him fresh for the post-season). Therefore, I could also see a drop in all of his stats because of this. But even if he keeps his stats similar as last year with more innings pitched, that’s a solid number three starter that most teams would be glad to have on their team (and a solid number seven starter on the Dodgers). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 134 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.90 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 124 K | 45 BB Steamer – 144 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 132 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 125 IP | 6-7 W/L | 3.95 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 116 K | 44 BB ATC – 141 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.91 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 131 K | 45 BB THE BAT – 141 IP | 8-9 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 126 K | 45 BB OOPSY – 134 IP | 10-8 W/L | 3.70 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 126 K | 44 BB RotoChamp – 139 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.88 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 128 K | 46 BB CBS Sports – 137 IP | 7-7 W/L | 3.28 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 126 K | 40 BB ESPN – 151 IP | 10 W | 3.75 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 144 K | 44 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 130 K | 51 BB 2025 Actual – 112 1/3 IP | 4-8 W/L | 3.53 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 101 K | 33 BB 2025 Prediction – 144 1/3 IP | 8-10 W/L | 3.62 ERA | 1.240 WHIP | 120 K | 44 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #5 – Colten Thomas Keith 2024 was Colt Keith’s first year in the Major Leagues and it was…completely average. That’s not a bad thing for a young, 22-year old rookie, who hit .260/.309/.380 with 13 home runs and a 96 OPS+. Unfortunately, his defense was very much below average, with a -8 DRS and -8.7 UZR/150. This was enough cause for concern that prompted the Tigers to sign Gleyber Torres to take over second base and move Keith to first base for 2025 (despite having below average defense himself). Looking through Colt Keith’s splits, there isn’t much difference between his first half (.253/.309/.394) and second half numbers (.268/.310/.362). However, if you break it down monthly, there are highs and lows that are typical for any rookie (and even several veteran hitters too): APR/MAR – 99 PA | .154/.222/.165 | 0 HR MAY – 80 PA | .343/.388/.493 | 2 HR JUN – 84 PA | .220/.238/.329 | 2 HR JUL – 99 PA | .322/.404/.644 | 7 HR AUG – 111 PA | .264/.297/.330 | 1 HR SEPT – 83 PA | .273/.313/.351 | 1 HR Personally, I was ready to demote Keith to AAA after the first month of the season, but thank God I’m not the one in charge. Imagine having a full season of those July numbers! It’s too early in his career to know if Keith will always be this streaky of a hitter or if he will eventually become more consistent as he matures. In looking for any areas where Colt Keith could improve, one thing that stands out was how he hits against breaking pitches: Fastball – 271 PA | .291 AVG | .385 SLG | 4 HR Breaking – 157 PA | .228 AVG | .356 SLG | 3 HR Off-speed – 118 PA | .237 AVG | .407 SLG | 6 HR Kieth seems to provide most of his power against off-speed pitches. Again, it’s too early in his career to make any determination on how he will mature as a hitter, but it is interesting that he only hit .237 against off-speed pitches. This leads me to think that trading some batting average for more power might be in his future, but there is also no reason to believe that he can’t have both a high batting average and gain more power once he enters his prime. As for rate stats, Colt Keith had a 6.5 percent walk rate (11.6 percent in the minors) and a 19.8 percent strikeout rate (21.5 percent in the minors). The walk rate has room for improvement if his minor league rate is any indication, while his strikeout rate could increase as his power develops. Having a high strikeout rate is typical for a power hitter, although Keith is right around league average, 22.6 percent, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays there too. Basically, it’s just too early to tell. Keith also stole seven bases last year while only stealing 11 across three seasons in the minor leagues. If he can increase his on-base percentage and stolen base opportunities, I could see him stealing even more bases in 2025. We only have one year of data, and Keith is still only entering his age 23 season. He is still years off from entering his prime, which makes it especially difficult to predict how he will do in his sophomore season (I mean, they coined the term “sophomore slump” for a reason). Pitchers have more data on the type of hitter Keith is and will adjust. Now Keith needs to adjust as well. If all goes well, I could see a slight improvement in all of his numbers across the board. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 494 AB | .262/.324/.426 | 16 HR | 69 RBI | 4 SB | 45 BB | 116 K Steamer – 481 AB | .262/.326/.427 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 5 SB | 44 BB | 105 K ZiPS DC – 495 AB | .261/.323/.426 | 15 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 125 K ATC – 474 AB | .260/.319/.420 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 106 K THE BAT X – 475 AB | .252/.309/.397 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 106 K OOPSY – 500 AB | .262/.315/.416 | 15 HR | 56 RBI | 5 SB | 39 BB | 116 K RotoChamp – 482 AB | .259/.329/.419 | 15 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 41 BB | 111 K CBS Sports – 426 AB | .268/.324/.401 | 12 HR | 52 RBI | 7 SB | 33 BB | 96 K ESPN – 485 AB | .264/.327/.416 | 15 HR | 62 RBI | 5 SB | 45 BB | 106 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 467 AB | .236/.299/.375 | 14 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 42 BB | 131 K 2024 Actual – 516 AB | .260/.309/.380 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 7 SB | 36 BB | 110 K 2025 Prediction – 525 AB | .261/.316/.400 | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 10 SB | 41 BB | 120 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #4 – Jack Rafe Flaherty When the Tigers acquired Jack Flaherty in 2024, they had hoped that pitching coach Chris Fetter could help fix the struggling former first round draft pick, who had a 4.99 ERA in 2023, including a 6.75 ERA after getting traded to the Baltimore Orioles midseason. Not only did Flaherty have a bounce back year, but he had his best year since 2019, his second year in the Big Leagues, with a 3.17 ERA in 162 innings. In fact, there are several similarities between his 2019 and 2024 season. 2019 – 196 1/3 IP | 2.75 ERA | 3.46 FIP | 29.9% K% | 7.1% BB% | 13.8% HR/FB% 2024 – 162 IP | 3.17 ERA | 3.48 FIP | 29.9% K% | 5.9% BB% | 15.5% HR/FB% Flaherty had a lower walk rate in 2024, but a higher homerun rate, which resulted in very similar FIP in 2019 and 2024. If Flaherty can improve on the home runs, his 2025 could not only be better than last year, but could be his best season yet. One noticeable change that Flaherty made in 2024 was that he completely abandoned his cutter in 2025. In 2024, he threw it 220 times while opponents batted .333 against it with a .571 SLG against. Therefore, it was a good idea to abandon it, as the numbers certainly show. One area for improvement is the sinker. While he doesn’t throw it a lot (2.3 percent), opponents absolutely hammered it in 2024. 2023 – 66 pitches | .286 BA against | .286 SLG against 2024 – 60 pitches | .600 BA against | 1.200 SLG against Flaherty also throws a 4-seam fastball (44.1 percent), slider (29 percent), knuckle curve (21.8 percent), and changeup (2.7 percent, exclusively against left-handed batters), so completely abandoning another pitch might not be such a bad idea again. The Tigers only had Flaherty for 106 2/3 innings in 2024, then he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline when it looked like the Tigers were going to miss the playoffs once again (but they made it anyway! Woo-hoo!). There was a noticeable slump in his numbers once he got to the Dodgers. 2024 DET – 106 2/3 IP | 2.95 ERA | 3.12 FIP | 32.0% K% | 4.6% BB% | 16.3% HR/FB% 2025 LAD – 55 1/3 IP | 3.58 ERA | 4.16 FIP | 26.1% K% | 8.1% BB% | 14.3% HR/FB% This difference could easily be chalked up to fatigue or small sample size. However, there is enough evidence to show that Chris Fetters does have a big impact. Now that Jack Flaherty is back with the Tigers and Fetters for the entire 2025 season (and hopefully the entire 2026 season too) can also be more proof that 2025 could be a career year for Flaherty (but he has to get those home runs under control). Flaherty is still under 30 years of age, so age regression shouldn’t be a factor just yet. Pairing a strong right-handed pitcher with the southpaw and Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal will be a great 1-2 punch for the playoffs that the Tigers were sorely lacking in 2024. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 164 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.80 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 178 K | 52 BB Steamer – 170 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.74 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 178 K | 53 BB ZiPS DC – 158 IP | 12-8 W/L | 3.86 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 177 K | 51 BB ATC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 171 K | 50 BB THE BAT – 158 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.97 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 178 K | 52 BB OOPSY – 165 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.68 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 179 K | 54 BB RotoChamp – 160 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 175 K | 51 BB CBS Sports – 147 IP | 10 W/L | 3.31 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 159 K | 37 BB ESPN – 165 IP | 11 W | 3.65 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 192 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 154 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.422 WHIP | 154 K | 67 BB 2024 Actual – 162 IP | 13-7 W/L | 3.17 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 194 K | 38 BB 2025 Prediction – 182 1/3 IP | 15-8 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.015 WHIP | 225 K | 36 BB

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #3 – Kerry William Carpenter Going into the 2024 season, one of the big questions for Kerry Carpenter was if he could repeat his breakout season of 2023. And the answer was a resounding, “YES!” After hitting .278/.340/.471 with a 122 OPS+ in 2023, Carpenter hit .284/.345/.587 with a 159 OPS+ in 2024, displaying even more power than ever before. However, due to injury, Carpenter missed over 2 months of the season and only appeared in 87 games but still managed 18 home runs, which was second most on the Tigers after Riley Greene’s 24. Another thing limiting Carpenter’s playing time was that he batted almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers, platooning mostly with Wenceel Perez by the end of the season. And for good reason, as Carpenter struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. Vs. RHP – 264 PA | .305/.363/.631 | 17 HR Vs. LHP – 32 PA | .107/.194/.214 | 1 HR Carpenter has the power of Miguel Cabrera against right-handed pitchers and the power of a typical pitcher when batting against left-handed pitchers. Manager A.J. Hinch will probably like to play the matchups again and platoon Carpenter with those numbers (although Perez wasn’t exactly lighting it up, hitting .209/292/.302 against left-handed pitching). If Carpenter can somehow get 500 plate appearances, he could easily approach 30 home runs (his 6.1 percent home run rate last year would have resulted in 31 home runs in 500 plate appearances). Although it may mean playing against more left-handed pitchers, which will hurt his overall numbers (if the Tigers had acquired another big bat, like Alex Bregman, it would be easier to sit Carpenter against left-handed pitchers). As far as other rates in 2025, Carpenter had a 25.3 percent strikeout rate, right in line with his 25.6 percent career strikeout rate. His 7.4 percent walk rate was slightly better than his career 6.9 percent walk rate. Most impressive might be his 13.2 percent extra base hit rate, which is right with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani’s 13.5 percent extra base hit rate, tied for best in baseball in 2024. Although Carpenter did have a smaller sample size and may not be able to repeat it if given more playing time. Kerry Carpenter is only entering his age 27 season and is on the verge of entering his prime years. However, he is a hard one to predict, given if he will be able to stay healthy, what his playing time is going to be, how much of his less than full season of work was luck based and how much he will continue to improve. One thing for certain, though, is that his power is very much real and he will likely have more than a few exciting at bats in 2025, like his game-winning home run in game two of the ALDS against the best closer in baseball last year, Emanual Clase. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 451 AB | .255/.317/.466 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 124 K Steamer – 450 AB | .255/.317/.467 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 3 SB | 36 BB | 124 K ZiPS DC – 451 AB | .255/.317/.464 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 2 SB | 35 BB | 123 K ATC – 438 AB | .256/.319/.472 | 22 HR | 71 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 121 K THE BAT X – 434 AB | .250/.317/.453 | 20 HR | 64 RBI | 4 SB | 38 BB | 119 K OOPSY – 452 AB | .256/.315/.463 | 22 HR | 66 RBI | 4 SB | 34 BB | 123 K RotoChamp – 438 AB | .256/.325/.468 | 22 HR | 68 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 120 K CBS Sports – 482 AB | .286/.349/.556 | 31 HR | 90 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 134 K ESPN – 435 AB | .271/.333/.529 | 27 HR | 77 RBI | 2 SB | 34 BB | 122 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K 2024 Actual – 264 AB | .284/.345/.587 | 18 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 22 BB | 75 K 2025 Prediction – 454 AB | .262/.325/.526 | 28 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 125 K

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene Riley Greene had a breakout season in 2024, playing in over 100 games for the first time in his career, with 24 home runs, 74 RBI, and a 133 OPS+, becoming a well-deserved all-star for the first time. He’s still only 24 years old, so he may not even have peaked just yet. The most impressive area of improvement for Greene was his power. He had his highest slugging percentage (.479), isolated power (.217), and home run rate (4.1 percent) of his career. His ISO and wRC+ (135) ranked third in all of baseball among hitters under the age of 25, behind Bobby Witt, Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. His walk rate of 11 percent was second, slightly lower than Nolan Schaunel’s 11.2 percent, in all of baseball among hitters under 25. This is very impressive and hopefully he can be even better once he reaches his full potential in his prime years. One of the reasons his power improved in 2024 was simply because he hit the ball in the air a lot more. According to Baseball Savant, here were his batted ball stats over the last few years: 2022 – 56.8% GB% | 19.3% FB% | 22.4% LD% 2023 – 48.9% GB% | 21.8% FB% | 28.9% LD% 2024 – 43.6% GB% | 27.7% FB% | 25.4% LD% Increasing his flyball rate from 19.3 percent in 2022 to 27.7 percent in 2024 as well as decreasing his groundball rate of over 50 percent in 2022 to 43.6 percent in 2024 simply allowed him more opportunities to hit the ball out of the park. Another aspect of power is launch angle, and Greene improved his average launch angle from 6.6 degrees in 2023 to 12.2 degrees in 2024. Home run hitters typically average a launch angle of around 20 degrees; a launch angle between 25 to 35 degrees is the sweet spot for hitting a home run. As he continues to mature, I can easily see him hitting around 40 home runs in his prime years. Maybe even a similar type of hitter as Curtis Granderson. Riley Greene’s walk rate is above average, but his strikeout rate (26.7 percent) and stolen bases (4) are not impressive. However, those can be of little concern as long as the power and batting average are great. As long as Riley Greene can stay healthy, he is posed to continue to improve his power going into 2025 and beyond. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 562 AB | .268/.348/.457 | 22 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 158 K Steamer – 576 AB | .268/.348/.456 | 23 HR | 82 RBI | 7 SB | 68 BB | 158 K ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .268/.349/.458 | 23 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 162 K ATC – 533 AB | .265/.345/.454 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 62 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 530 AB | .260/.342/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 155 K OOPSY – 565 AB | .275/.349/.476 | 24 HR | 80 RBI | 8 SB | 62 BB | 164 K RotoChamp – 542 AB | .268/.346/.458 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 156 K CBS Sports – 473 AB | .275/.360/.499 | 24 HR | 69 RBI | 6 SB | 58 BB | 141 K ESPN – 550 AB | .260/.334/.464 | 24 HR | 71 RBI | 6 SB | 59 BB | 164 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K 2024 Actual – 512 AB | .262/.348/.479 | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 156 K 2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K