bobrob2004

I'll be very sad if I can't watch Tiger baseball on my birthday.

I made more! Rain out today, so if you want something to do. https://connectionsplus.io/game/HxGs1o https://connectionsplus.io/game/VtGXsV https://connectionsplus.io/game/U8oOni https://connectionsplus.io/game/aHGMEh https://connectionsplus.io/game/MMYNyu https://connectionsplus.io/game/bhlJho https://connectionsplus.io/game/sypyBD https://connectionsplus.io/game/jhUoNe https://connectionsplus.io/game/LlvTYU

If you don't know what Connections is, it's a NYT game where you have to create 4 groups of 4 that share a common category. There is a site where you can create custom ones. I have created two of them with a baseball theme and I have ideas for others. It's like Immaculate Grid + Connections! https://connectionsplus.io/game/JYyIvN https://connectionsplus.io/game/kV96b9 Let me know what you think. Share your results. Create your own.

Anyone play NYT Connections? I created a baseball themed one: https://connectionsplus.io/game/JYyIvN

Hey, one of my predictions already happened!

That wraps up another year of my dumb predictions. Come back in October so we can see how wrong I am.

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #15 – Casey Arthur Mize Normally I would only do five starting pitchers, but the Tigers have six starters that I think will have a significant contribution to this team this year. Since Casey Mize will actually start the season in the rotation with Matt Manning demoted to AAA, I can’t skip doing Mize’s prediction (although there is a chance that Mize will see some time in Toledo at some point during the season). The Tigers have a depth in starting pitching, which also includes the likes of Sawyer Gipson-Long, Beau Brieskie, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Brant Hurter, and Jackson Jobe, to name a few, all of whom could make starts for the Tigers this year due to injuries, poor performances, or a trade or two. Eventually, everything will work itself out. Casey Mize was the first overall pick by the Detroit Tigers in 2018 and made his Major League debut in 2020, starting seven games with a 6.99 ERA in a little over 28 innings, skipping over AAA altogether. Maybe he wasn’t quite ready for the Majors yet, but 2020 was a weird year without any Minor League games, so if the Tigers wanted Mize to pitch it had to be in the Majors. In 2021, Mize started 30 games with a 3.71 ERA, with a team leading 150 1/3 innings, giving Tiger fans hope for what may come in the future. However, he only started two games in 2022 and then was placed on the Injured List, eventually having Tommy John surgery and he hasn’t pitched until Spring Training this year. Casey Mize’s numbers are kind of similar to Matt Manning’s numbers in that luck was likely on his side: 2021 – 6.7% BB% | 19.3% K% | 16.2% HR/FB% | 3.71 ERA | 4.92 xERA | 4.71 FIP Among those with at least 150 innings in 2021, Mize was 13th lowest in strikeout rate and 6th highest in home run to flyball ratio. His walk rate was above average, but control was an issue during Spring Training, which could be a factor in 2024 after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Altogether, his FIP was a run higher than his ERA in 2021. One encouraging stat was his groundball rate was at 48.1 percent. Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, splitter, and knuckle curve. Numbers are from 2021: 4-Seamer – 29.3% Usage | .226 BAA | .474 SLG Against Slider – 28.1% Usage | .194 BAA | .335 SLG Against Sinker – 22.7% Usage | .322 BAA | .557 SLG Against Splitter – 13.2% Usage | .203 BAA | .304 SLG Against Knuckle Curve – 6.7% Usage | .133 BAA | .200 SLG Against He had the most trouble with the sinker in 2021 and he only threw it 3 times in his 10 innings in 2022, so maybe he was phasing it out in favor of throwing his fastball/splitter more often. Overall, opponents had a .254 batting average of balls in play against Mize that year, which will be very hard to sustain. Mize throws his fastball around 93.5 MPH and just like Manning, had very good extension in 2021. Casey Mize needs to work on striking out guys more often, but also limiting the home runs (and walks may be an issue as well). It’s going to be even harder for Mize to make these adjustments after not pitching for almost 2 years; it usually takes one full year to get back to full efficiency. Mize is only entering his age-27 season, so he still has time to reach his full potential (and (he did have 20 strikeouts and allowed only 1 home run during Spring Training in 20 1/3 innings, but Spring Training stats should always be taken with a grain of salt). I think the Tigers are going to be more worried about his health this year to make sure he doesn’t have any setbacks, so I don’t expect much of an improvement. Hopefully I am wrong. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 127 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.63 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 103 K | 38 BB ZiPS DC – 114 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.61 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 85 K | 33 BB THE BAT – 105 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.97 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67 K | 32 BB ATC – 103 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 80 K | 30 BB FGDC – 120 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 94 K | 36 BB RotoChamp – 109 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 81 K | 32 BB CBS Sports – 162 IP | 7-10 W/L | 3.89 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 152 K | 49 BB ESPN – 101 IP | 5 W | 4.19 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 67 K | 31 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – N/A 2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP | 5-9 W/L | 4.71 ERA | 1.357 WHIP | 89 K | 43 BB

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #14 – Giovanny Urshela The Tigers’ third base production last year was .211/.294/.323 with a 72 wRC+ and a -1.0 fWAR. Only the New York Mets had a lower wRC+ (67) and both the Oakland Athletics (-1.3) and Mets (-2.6) had a lower fWAR. Needless to say, the Tigers needed an upgrade as they wait for prospect Jace Jung to be Major League ready. Enter free agent signee Gio Urshela. Gio Urshela has primarily been a third baseman throughout his career, but he played all over the infield last year as a utility player for the Los Angeles Angels. He has only been an everyday player a few times for the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins over his 8-year career. While I think he’ll be the main third baseman for the Tigers this year, A.J. Hinch may still use a patchwork of Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibanez, and Matt Veirling along with Urshela at third base as he loves the flexibility to use players at multiple positions. Gio Urshela had his best year in 2019 when he hit .314/.355/.534 with 21 home runs and a 133 OPS+. He had just as good of a year in the COVID short 2020 season with a 137 OPS+. However, he was never able to reach those levels again, hovering around league average over the last few seasons. 2021 – 442 PA | 4.5% BB% | 24.7% K% | .329 BABIP 2022 – 551 PA | 7.4% BB% | 17.4% K% | .326 BABIP 2023 – 228 PA | 4.4% BB% | 15.8% K% | .346 BABIP Only once has Gio Urshela been able to have a decent walk rate, 10.3 percent in 2020. Usually, it has been around 4.5 percent. Strikeouts have been all over the place; it was as high as 24.7 percent in 2021 and as low as 14.4 percent in 2020. The last two years, it has been a combined 16.9 percent in 779 plate appearances, so it is probably safe to say it’ll be below 20 percent again in 2024. The Tigers were 27th in batting average last year at .236. Riley Greene was the Tigers’ leader in batting average last year at .288 (in 416 plate appearances) and most regulars were below .270. Gio Urshela usually has an above average batting average, .285 in 2022 and .299 in 2023, so it will be nice to have another high batting average hitter in the lineup. However, his expected batting average was .268 in 2022 and .259 in 2023, so we will see if he can outperform it again this year. Now for the power numbers: 2021 – 15.1% HR/FB% | .152 ISO | 7.7% XBH% 2022 – 9.1% HR/FB% | .144 ISO | 7.8% XBH% 2023 – 3.6% HR/FB% | .075 ISO | 4.8% XBH% It is astounding how much of a decline Gio Urshela had in power last year. His power numbers were steadily declining after his 21-homer 2019 season, but they fell off a cliff in 2023, only hitting 2 home runs in 228 plate appearances. He is entering his age-32 season, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can bounce back in power or if this is going to be the new norm now that he is past his prime. Along with the uncertainty of Colt Keith at second base, the Tigers needed depth in the infield. While I think most Tiger fans will be happy with a repeat of his 92 wRC+, Urshela is showing signs of declining. We all saw how quickly someone can fall off with Jonathan Schoop. Hopefully Urshela’s decline in power isn’t too much of a concern. However, at $1.5 million, it’s worth the gamble, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jace Jung is the starting third baseman by the end of the season (similar to when Parker Meadows took over for centerfield last year). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 276 AB | .274/.323/.410 | 7 HR | 34 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 55 K ZiPS DC – 306 AB | .280/.321/.409 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 18 BB | 57 K THE BAT X – 285 AB | .268/.314/.400 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 18 BB | 54 K ATC – 297 AB | .275/.320/.405 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 57 K FGDC – 303 AB | .277/.322/.410 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 59 K RotoChamp – 295 AB | .275/.318/.410 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 57 K CBS Sports – 419 AB | .298/.342/.425 | 8 HR | 52 RBI | 3 SB | 29 BB | 82 K ESPN – 342 AB | .278/.316/.401 | 7 HR | 40 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 63 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 214 AB | .299/.329/.374 | 2 HR | 24 RBI | 10 BB | 36 K 2024 Prediction – 347 AB | .277/.311/.375 | 6 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 17 BB | 63 K

I did: Bill Freehan, Mickey Cochrane, Ivan Rodriguez George Kell, Miguel Cabrera, Aurelio Rodriguez Curtis Granderson, Ty Cobb, Roger Cedeno

There is this: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34364479/pete-rose-dismisses-sexual-misconduct-questions-phillies-bash-was-55-years-ago-babe

it's not like Wentz has been bad either. 2.77 ERA. 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.

Last 2 bullpen spots are yet to be decided. For what it's worth, Wentz and Diaz are both out of options.

I did today's Immaculate Grid using all Tigers players. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 356 9/9: Rarity: 20 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

Dombrowski started the rebuild when he traded David Price to the Blue Jays for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd; traded Yoenis Céspedes to the Mets for Michael Fulmer; and traded Joakim Soria to the Pirates for JaCoby Jones. Then he was fired for it.

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #13 – Colten Keith The Tigers biggest signing of the offseason wasn’t even for a Free Agent. The Tigers signed prospect Colt Keith (currently ranked 28th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America) for 6 years and $28,642,500 guaranteed with three option years that could be worth as much as $62,000,000 over 9 years. It’s the largest contract by a Tiger before they make their Major League debut. This is how much the Tigers like the former 2020 5th round draft pick and think that he’s ready to contribute at the Major league level, despite his questionable defense at second base. Colt Keith played at both AA and AAA last year: AA – 276 PA | .325/.391/.585 | 9.1% BB% | 22.8% K% | 5.1% HR% AAA – 301 PA | .287/.369/.521 | 11.6% BB% | 19.3% K% | 4.3% HR% Keith had a .386 BABIP in AA, which could be indicative of good fortune, but it could be simply that he was too advanced for that level. He also had a .260 ISO and a 163 wRC+ in AA. His stats in AAA are also overall impressive with a .234 ISO and a 119 wRC+, showing that he is indeed ready for the Major Leagues. Now it is always hard to predict how someone will do their first year in the Major Leagues. For example, Spencer Torkelson had a 129 wRC+ in AAA the year before his Major League debut, but struggled so much that was demoted back to AAA during his first year. A similar situation could happen with Keith this year, as he is entering just his age 23-season. On the other hand, he could light it up right away and never see the Minor Leagues again. As far as actual stats, I could see him having ups and downs as he adjusts to the highest level. Even though his batting average was exactly .300 in the Minor Leagues, I can’t see him hitting .300 in his first year. Keith has always had a high walk rate, so I can he him around 10 percent this year (hopefully it’s higher) for a decent OBP. Strikeouts are always a concern, and I can see it being higher than the 21.5 percent that he had in the minors. Power usually comes later, and I can’t really see more than around 15 home runs (although he may have many doubles and triples at Comerica Park). He had 3 steals between AA and AAA last year and 4 steals in 2022, so I can’t really see him stealing more than 2-3 bases this year. Watching prospects is always fun, especially when they are as highly touted as Colt Keith is. However, I’m keeping my expectations low when he is just learning and adjusting to the Major Leagues. While I don’t think that Keith will struggle so much he needs to be demoted, I don’t rule out that possibility. At the same time, I think there are going to be stretches where Keith will dominate. Just a typical up and down year that any prospect will face is what I’m expecting and hopefully ending around league average production. And I hope that his defense isn’t as bad as everyone says it is. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 429 AB | .261/.326/.427 | 14 HR | 54 RBI | 3 SB | 39 BB | 105 K ZiPS DC – 458 AB | .252/.314/.434 | 17 HR | 68 RBI | 2 SB | 40 BB | 116 K THE BAT X – 440 AB | .246/.305/.400 | 13 HR | 54 RBI | 3 SB | 36 BB | 114 K ATC – 431 AB | .257/.320/.422 | 14 HR | 58 RBI | 3 SB | 39 BB | 108 K FGDC – 456 AB | .257/.320/.431 | 16 HR | 63 RBI | 2 SB | 41 BB | 113 K RotoChamp – 442 AB | .256/.327/.428 | 15 HR | 59 RBI | 3 SB | 39 BB | 111 K CBS Sports – 377 AB | .263/.333/.430 | 13 HR | 50 RBI | 4 SB | 35 BB | 98 K ESPN – 417 AB | .245/.327/.422 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 4 SB | 50 BB | 103 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual (AA & AAA) – 507 AB | .306/.380/.552 | 27 HR | 101 RBI | 3 SB | 60 BB | 121 K 2024 Prediction – 467 AB | .236/.299/.375 | 14 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 42 BB | 131 K

Avila was always great drafting good prospects. His biggest weakness was signing/trading for veteran talent. He would overpay or get players that were way passed their prime. While we can praise him for getting players like Greene, Torkelson, Mize (and even Jobe, Jung, and Clark), the reality is that they wouldn't have been able to draft them if the Tigers were competing during Avila's run.

The one stat that stands out for Mize is the 9 walks. Control issues are common among pitchers returning from TJ surgery. I wouldn't be surprised if the send Mize down so they can better monitor his pitches/innings (for at least awhile). Regardless of who they send down, I think both Olson and Mize will have significant contributions for the Tigers this year as injuries always happen.

Spring Training stats: .105/.227/.184, 0 HR .105/.122/.105, 0 HR One is Javy Baez, the other is Spencer Torkelson. Who is who?

Personally. I'd like to see Canha hit 2nd with everyone moving down one. I think his OBP will help at the top of the order instead of 5th. I'd also like to see Keith bat 8th or 9th to get some pressure off of him as he's adjusting to the Majors, but the bottom of the order is a lot more fluid than the top.

He had an ERA of 8.01 after his no-hitter. As amazing as it is to see a no-hitter, sometimes it comes at a cost. He threw 124 pitches in that game, which is a lot for a pitcher like Lorenzen. Add in the number of innings that he was pitching and you can see fatigue was clearly a factor.

It's weird that I completely forgot about his contributions. Is this what it's like getting old?

Some of these will contradict my other predictions, but oh well. Parker Meadows will steal over 40 bases. Jake Rogers will hit 25 or more home runs. Shelby Miller will end up being the closer with over 30 saves. Riley Greene will be a below average hitter. Colt Keith and Matt Manning will get sent to AAA at some point due to poor performances. Jace Jung will take over for 3B by September after the release of Gio Urshela. Ty Madden will make his ML debut this year and make at least 10 starts due to injuries to other pitchers. Tarik Skubal will win the Cy Young Award.

Diaz and Wentz are out of options, so I think they are locks. I think Lange, Foley, Miller, and Chafin are locks. That leaves Faedo, Briske, Holton, Vest and Gipson-Long for 2 spots. Vest is 28, Holton and Faedo are 27, so how much more do they need to prove? I forgot how much Holton contributed last year, so he's probably a lock. I guess they could try to send Diaz through waivers?

Yes, but it'll be interesting to see who doesn't. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibanez, Akil Baddoo, Ryan Kreidler, there's only room for 3 of them, along with Carson Kelly, assuming they take 13 pitchers. Skubal, Maeda, Flaherty, Manning, Olson/Mize for the rotation. Lange, Foley, Miller, Chafin, Diaz, Faedo, Briske, Wentz. One of Olson/Mize will have to be sent to AAA. Gipson-Long, Holton, and Vest will likely not make the team unless there's an injury.