bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #3 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Tarik Skubal emerged as the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2023 in terms of ERA (2.80), WHIP (0.867), K/BB (7.29), and HR/9 (0.45). According to FanGraphs, he was also the top Tigers’ player in WAR at 3.3 wins, even beating out all of the hitters, despite missing half of the year. Among all pitchers in the league with at least 80 innings pitched, Skubal was 7th in ERA, 7th in K/9 (11.43), 8th in BB/9 (1.57), and 2nd in HR/9. He was also first in both FIP (2.00) and xFIP (2.56), indicating that his success wasn’t a fluke or based on luck (in fact you could argue he was a bit unlucky). If he can keep his pace for a full 30-32 start season, he will no doubt be a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball in 2024. “If” is the key part, though. It’s hard for any pitcher to keep that kind of pace for a full season, especially for someone who hasn’t done it at the Major League level yet. However, Skubal is entering his age-27 season, right in his prime years, so he’s in a good position to do so as long as he can stay healthy. In August of 2022, he had flexor tendon surgery that kept him out until the middle of the 2023 season, limiting him to only 15 starts. A lot of Skubal’s success has come in improving on the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Another stat that he has greatly improved on is his ground ball rate, which went over 50 percent in 2023. This is great for a pitcher as it can limit the amount of damage a hitter can do, such as limiting the home runs. 2021 – 9.88 K/9 | 2.83 BB/9 | 2.11 HR/9 | 38.5% GB% 2022 – 8.95 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 0.69 HR/9 | 45.7% GB% 2023 – 11.43 K/9 | 1.57 BB/9 | 0.45 HR/9 | 51.6% GB% Tarik Skubal has done everything that I like to see a young pitcher do, high strikeouts, low walks and home runs, and a high groundball rate. There is really very little to critique here other than hoping that he can stay healthy and durable all year. There is one split stat that is worth noting here. Skubal was noticeably better at home than he was on the road. Home – 39 1/3 IP | 1.37 ERA | 59 K | 7 BB Away – 41 IP | 4.17 ERA | 43 K | 7 BB However, we are back to talking about small sample sizes here. There is one start that has skewed these stats, July 18 at Kansas City, where Skubal allowed 7 earned runs. This is the only start in which he gave up more than 5 earned runs. In three starts, he allowed 4 earned runs each. The remaining 11 starts, he allowed 2 earned runs or less. He particularly finished strong; in his last 5 starts, he allowed 2 runs or fewer and in 3 of these starts he pitched 7 innings/start. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.32 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 198 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 144 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 150 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 139 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.50 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 161 K | 41 BB ATC – 155 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 177 K | 41 BB FGDC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 174 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 151 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.46 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 170 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 167 IP | 13-7 W/ L | 3.18 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 183 K | 42 BB ESPN – 153 IP | 11 W | 3.18 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 188 K | 39 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 80 1/3 IP | 7-3 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 0.896 WHIP | 102 K | 14 BB 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB

Yes, I put the wrong label. It should have simply read 3.4 percent home run rate (HR/PA).

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Greene Another young Tigers’ hitter that broke out last year was Riley Greene, who hit .288/.349/.447 with a 119 wRC+. However, Greene only played in 99 games (416 PA). This is the second year in a row that Greene has missed a significant part of the season due to injury; in 2022 he missed the first part of the season due to a foot injury that he suffered during Spring Training and only played in 93 games (418 PA). In 2023 he missed the month of June due to injury as well as having Tommy John surgery in September on his non-throwing arm (although he is expected to be on the Opening Day roster). Hopefully 2024 is the year that he can get a full season workload in. Just like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene was a former first round draft pick and was the fourth best overall prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2022 season. So, after having a slightly below average season his rookie year (.253/.321/.362, 96 wRC+), it is no surprise that Greene became one of the Tigers’ better hitters in 2023. Although, one stat that sticks out is his .384 batting average of balls in play (BABIP), which usually indicates a bit of good fortune when it is that high. However, his expected batting average, XBA, was .289 (.288 actual batting average) and his expected wOBA was .365 (.363 actual wOBA). This indicates no luck at all. Regardless, it will be very difficult to repeat a BABIP that high again (especially over a full season workload). One stat I’d like to point out is his vast difference in launch angles: 2022 – 2.8 degrees launch angle | 20.1% LD% | 56.0% GB% | 23.9% FB% | 8.1% HR/FB 2023 – 6.6 degrees launch angle | 26.3% LD% | 48.9% GB% | 24.8% FB% | 16.7% HR/FB Riley Greene is entering his age-23 season, so he is in a good position to improve on his stats after already seeing some success in 2023. It is nice to see that his ground ball rate went from over 50 percent in 2022 to below 50 percent in 2023, due to the difference in launch angles. The more balls that Greene can drive in the air, the more power he will produce, which resulted in more than doubling his home run to fly ball ratio last year. Greene has enough speed to beat out a ground ball (.254 AVG on GB), he also stole seven bases and had four triples in his limited playing time last year. I can easily see his stolen base numbers in the double digits this year, if he can stay healthy. Similarly to Torkelson, Greene also has weaknesses in strikeouts (27.4 percent strikeout rate) and below average defense (-5 DRS in centerfield). However, having Parker Meadows take over in centerfield with Greene moving to one of the corners should help with his defense. Also like Torkelson, Greene now has Major League experience, a bit of Major League success, and youth on his side to overall improve in 2024. Now he just needs to stay healthy. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 573 AB | .273/.343/.438 | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 8 SB | 58 BB | 163 K ZiPS DC – 555 AB | .268/.336/.438 | 19 HR | 69 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 161 K THE BAT X – 520 AB | .265/.340/.432 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 151 K ATC – 524 AB | .267/.343/.433 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 10 SB | 51 BB | 153 K FGDC – 551 AB | .270/.339/.438 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 8 SB | 55 BB | 158 K RotoChamp – 532 AB | .271/.340/.436 | 17 HR | 66 RBI | 9 SB | 54 BB | 154 K CBS Sports – 494 AB | .298/.362/.488 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 48 BB | 143 K ESPN – 527 AB | .268/.340/.442 | 16 HR | 56 RBI | 9 SB | 56 BB | 152 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #1 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson After a disappointing rookie season in which Tork only hit .203/.285/.319 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI in 110 games, he bounced back with a .233/.313/.446 batting line in 2023 in 159 games with an impressive 31 home runs (T-7th in the American League). It was the latter half of the season in which he finally showed Tiger fans the kind of power hitter he could be at the Major League level. MAR-JUL: 447 PA | .227/.304/.403 | 15 HR | 43 BB | 108 K AUG-OCT: 237 PA | .244/.329/.526 | 16 HR | 24 BB | 63 K While his batting average slightly improved the last two months, it was his power increase that really stood out. Torkelson only averaged 3.4 home runs per plate appearances in his first 447 plate appearances, but that doubled to 6.8 home runs per plate appearances the final 237 plate appearances. At that pace, he would have had 46 home runs over a full season, which would have been most in the American League. Of course, the problem here is sample size; two months is not a sufficient enough sample to be making a lot of significant analysis (looking at you, 2020 Willi Castro). On the one hand, it could be a fluke. On the other hand, Torkelson is a former first round, first overall draft pick who was a top five prospect in both 2021 and 2022. Seeing him breakout was not only not surprising, but somewhat inevitable. Torkelson is entering his age 24-season, so it would not even be that surprising to see him improve further on these numbers over a full 2024 season. Looking at Tork’s splits, one thing that jumps out is that he’s a much better hitter on the road than at home (even after moving the fences in): Home: 340 PA | .219/.312/.387 | 11 HR | 37 RBI Away: 344 PA | .246/.314/.502 | 20 HR | 57 RBI Other weaknesses for Torkelson include his high strikeout rate (25 percent), trouble hitting off-speed pitches (.127 batting average against changeups), and his below average defense (-11 DRS). But again, he is just entering his third Major League season and has not even reached his prime years yet. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic this season. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 568 AB | .242/.331/.456 | 30 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | 71 BB | 152 K ZiPS DC – 578 AB | .243/.326/.476 | 33 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 551 AB | .247/.330/.457 | 27 HR | 86 RBI | 3 SB | 64 BB | 148 K ATC – 550 AB | .244/.329/.461 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 3 SB |65 BB | 150 K FGDC – 575 AB | .243/.329/.466 | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 3 SB | 70 BB | 154 K RotoChamp – 558 AB | .244/.331/.462 | 30 HR | 88 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 149 K CBS Sports – 468 AB | .259/.340/.485 | 25 HR | 75 RBI | 3 SB | 53 BB | 131 K ESPN – 607 AB | .241/.315/.465 | 34 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 62 BB | 165 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K 2024 Prediction – 603 AB | .231/.315/.483 | 39 HR | 99 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 175 K

Going back, I wish I had done Jake Rogers, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, and Tarik Skubal instead of Eric Haas, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Schoop, and Spencer Turnbull, but there was a lot of uncertainty in Spring Training this year.

Time to see how bad my predictions are: Javier Baez: 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K 2023 Actual – 510 AB | .222/.267/.325 | 9 HR | 59 RBI | 12 SB | 24 BB | 125 K Eduardo Rodriguez: 2023 Prediction – 128 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.415 WHIP | 117 K | 47 BB 2023 Actual – 152 2/3 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.30 ERA | 1.153 WHIP | 143 K | 48 BB Riley Greene: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K Michael Lorenzen: 2023 Prediction – 123 1/3 IP | 6-10 W/L | 4.45 ERA | 1.330 WHIP | 100 K | 58 BB 2023 Actual (total) – 153 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.209 WHIP | 111 K | 47 BB Jonathan Schoop: 2023 Prediction – 546 AB | .253/.288/.390 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 8 SB | 23 BB | 125 K 2023 Actual – 136 AB | .213/.278/.272 | 0 HR | 7 RBI | 0 SB | 13 BB | 37 K Matt Boyd: 2023 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 126 K | 42 BB 2023 Actual – 71 IP | 5-5 W/L | 5.45 ERA | 1.324 WHIP | 73 K | 25 BB Austin Meadows: 2023 Prediction – 492 AB | .254/.340/.429 | 20 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 60 BB | 121 K 2023 Actual – 21 AB | .238/.238/.286 | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 0 SB | 0 BB | 3 K Eric Haas: 2023 Prediction – 390 AB | .246/.299/.462 | 23 HR | 60 RBI | 29 BB | 123 K 2023 Actual (total) – 274 AB | .201/.247/.281 | 4 HR | 26 RBI | 17 BB | 81 K Miguel Cabrera: 2023 Prediction – 300 AB | .250/.298/.313 | 4 HR | 33 RBI | 0 SB | 20 BB | 78 K 2023 Actual – 334 AB | .257/.322/.353 | 4 HR | 34 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 74 K Matt Manning: 2023 Prediction –136 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.63 ERA | 1.254 WHIP | 122 K | 46 BB 2023 Actual – 78 IP | 5-4 W/L | 3.58 ERA | 1.038 WHIP | 50 K | 21 BB Spencer Torkelson: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K Spencer Turnbull: 2023 Prediction – 125 IP | 7-7 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.232 WHIP | 113 K | 40 BB 2023 Actual – 31 IP | 1-4 W/L | 7.26 ERA | 1.677 WHIP | 24 K | 15 BB Nick Maton: 2023 Prediction – 261 AB | .241/.322/.375 | 6 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 32 BB | 87 K 2023 Actual – 249 AB | .173/.288/.305 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 1 SB | 38 BB | 73 K Matt Vierling: 2023 Prediction – 340 AB | .250/.319/.385 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 11 SB | 34 BB | 79 K 2023 Actual – 479 AB | .261/.329/.388 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 6 SB | 44 BB | 112 K

Why do you always have to focus on the negative? /s

Best records in their own division: ATL - 35-17 DET - 35-17 LAD - 34-18 SEA - 33-19 MIL - 33-19

Pretty sure that was McCartney and he was 20 when he wrote it.

Remember a few years ago when it was revealed that Pete Rose was in a sexual relationship with a 14 year old girl during the 1970s?

I usually don't try to get a low rarity score, but this is the first where I tried. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 133 9/9: Rarity: 34 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

I think they are making Saturdays the easiest day of the week, which is alright with me. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 132 9/9: Rarity: 140 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref Multiple players could fit in multiple slots. And I didn't use Nolan Ryan at all.

I started following the Tigers in 1999, so he's literally been in the broadcast booth the whole time I've been a fan. It's not going to be the same without him.

Brad Ausmus also wore #12.

Quite the opposite. There's probably a lot of bandwagon Phillies fans and that is giving Lorenzen a false perception.

The Phillies are in the middle of a playoff race. The Tigers are in their 7th straight losing season. There's a difference in attendance.

I kinda like to follow the players that the Tigers drafted, even if it's with multiple teams.

Mike Lorezen pitched a no-hitter in his 2nd start with the Phillies. Nick Castellanos hit 2 home runs and now has 200 for his career.

Most prospects don't reach their full potential. So when you trade prospects for proven talent, you are going to win most of the time. Maybin and Miller were top 10 prospects in all of baseball. While both had decent careers, neither one became a superstar. Take Torkelson for another example. 2 years ago we could've gotten a better return for him than what we could get now. Most people would be opposed to trading him, back then and right now. But hindsight might tell a different story. Of course, we will never know who we could get because he was never on the tading block. But what if the Tigers were ready to compete in 2021 like they were in 2008? (Sorry, just fantasizing about being buyers instead of sellers).

There were a few obvious ones here, but I don't try to get a low rarity score, I just want to get it correct. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 129 9/9: Rarity: 222 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

I went with Kenny Rogers, who only won 18 games.

Jim Price after reaching heaven: "Nice Area"

Hopefully they can get someone better than Veirling to play 3B everyday. I like Veirling, but only as a bench player.

I could have done this one with almost all Tigers: Edwin Jackson | Matt Joyce | Austin Meadows Avisail Garcia | Prince Fielder | Andrew McCutchen* Magglio Ordonez | Brad Ausmus | Phil Garner* I didn't actually fill it out this way as I thought of some players after the fact. I was still immaculate, though. *I'm sure someone can think of someone here. Does Garner count as he was a Tigers manager?

My sweet spot is around 1999-2009 because I was younger and had more time to pay attention (and playing a lot of MVP Baseball 2005). As I got older, I stopped paying attention to the average players, which is bad for this game as they play for more teams.